Tweet
DIRTY CAMPAIGN EXPECTED
Siranuysh Papyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/interview27792.html
Published: 10:54:30 - 22/10/2012
Interview on home political events in Armenia with Hayk A.
Martirosyan, Candidate of Sciences, a doctoral student in political
science at the Sorbonne (New York)
Mr. Martirosyan, what do you think about the recent home political
events in Armenia, in particular those related to Vartan Oskanian? Is
he possible to be a presidential nominee after all this?
I think it will be naïve to exclude Vartan Oskanian's factor from
the political life of Armenia but, at the same time, the authorities
should have found some legal grounds to sue Oskanian since their
step is possible to cause some reaction in the U.S. and within the
international community. I think the Armenian authorities have weighted
the grounds before launching the case, since they said ready to punish
the responsible ones in case Oskanian is found out not guilty.
As to the presidential elections, I think Oskanian's "glorification"
and his new role of a persecuted figure may be both harmful and
beneficial for Serzh Sargsyan. If Oskanian's side uses these facts in
a right mode, it may cause serious difficulties for Serzh Sargsyan
in the West, but on the other hand, if Oskanian decides to run for
president, he will never win, but he will be considered the so-called
"worthy candidate" to render the victory of the acting president
more expressive. Despite the ardent speeches of certain members
of Prosperous Armenia party, the PAP is not opposition, and Vartan
Oskanian, as opposition candidate, has no chances to pretend to the
office of president.
Do you think the return of the second president is possible?
I think the same scenario used in Russia will be applied in Armenia
too. Hence, Serzh Sargsyan won't leave after one term ceding his office
to Robert Kocharyan. We know the election mechanisms used in Armenia, I
mean internal agreements. I don't think if they had such an agreement,
they would be obliged to respect it. First because Serzh Sargsyan, even
during Kocharyan's terms, was already a very weighty figure. And now,
during his term of office, Sargsyan feels like his predecessor did,
though I think there are anyway essential differences between the
behaviors of both presidents. Consequently, it is unlikely that Serzh
Sargsyan leaves his office after one term. The next reason is that
Kocharyan is surely trying to return to politics otherwise the PAP
would not exist today. But I think Kocharyan overestimates his power
which is proven by his reaction to Oskanian's case: he only issues
support. We know that Oskanian is in PAP by the order of Kocharyan.
There are three possibilities of Kocharyan's return: the first is if
there is some agreement with Sargsyan according to which the latter
should leave office after two terms. Second, if Armenia changes its
orientation towards the U.S.. Russia is not excluded to launch some
processes in Armenia, perhaps even a palatial movement to have the
power back for the second president. And the third possibility is the
change of power in Armenia in the result of a new Armenian-Azerbaijani
war.
Are the arrests related to corruption an imitation or an expression
of political will?
Such steps are always done in half-democratic and half-authoritarian
countries. I don't exclude the possibility that Serzh Sargsyan
concluded that the state needs deep changes since the people are out
of patience and that the fight against corruption is the biggest
weapon of the authorities. On the other hand, the fact that these
steps are made in the election period, stands for election activeness.
Nevertheless, I think it will be impossible to solve issues through
such steps. We see no names of influential oligarchs in the lists
of arrested people, but the reason is not necessarily the lack of
political will. It is very difficult to fight this system, it is
difficult even in case of the best wishes of the president. It is
necessary to change the system, otherwise, all the actions will be
for elections in the result of which a group of non-influential people
will appear behind bars.
Who will run for president? And will there be alternatives?
It is difficult to say who will be the ANC nominee but it won't be
Ter-Petrosyan. I think he will be enough intelligent to understand that
the elections, in case he runs, will be his last fiasco. There will
be someone from the ARF Dashnaktsutyun, but I'm sure this candidate
has no chances. The RPA will surely nominate Serzh Sargsyan and the
Heritage - Raffi Hovhannisyan. I think both Oskanian and Tsarukyan are
possible nominees. Robert Kocharyan's a less possible candidate. I
think Serzh Sargsyan, any of the two PAP members and Kocharyan will
compete. Anyway, the election campaign will be dirty.
Siranuysh Papyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/interview27792.html
Published: 10:54:30 - 22/10/2012
Interview on home political events in Armenia with Hayk A.
Martirosyan, Candidate of Sciences, a doctoral student in political
science at the Sorbonne (New York)
Mr. Martirosyan, what do you think about the recent home political
events in Armenia, in particular those related to Vartan Oskanian? Is
he possible to be a presidential nominee after all this?
I think it will be naïve to exclude Vartan Oskanian's factor from
the political life of Armenia but, at the same time, the authorities
should have found some legal grounds to sue Oskanian since their
step is possible to cause some reaction in the U.S. and within the
international community. I think the Armenian authorities have weighted
the grounds before launching the case, since they said ready to punish
the responsible ones in case Oskanian is found out not guilty.
As to the presidential elections, I think Oskanian's "glorification"
and his new role of a persecuted figure may be both harmful and
beneficial for Serzh Sargsyan. If Oskanian's side uses these facts in
a right mode, it may cause serious difficulties for Serzh Sargsyan
in the West, but on the other hand, if Oskanian decides to run for
president, he will never win, but he will be considered the so-called
"worthy candidate" to render the victory of the acting president
more expressive. Despite the ardent speeches of certain members
of Prosperous Armenia party, the PAP is not opposition, and Vartan
Oskanian, as opposition candidate, has no chances to pretend to the
office of president.
Do you think the return of the second president is possible?
I think the same scenario used in Russia will be applied in Armenia
too. Hence, Serzh Sargsyan won't leave after one term ceding his office
to Robert Kocharyan. We know the election mechanisms used in Armenia, I
mean internal agreements. I don't think if they had such an agreement,
they would be obliged to respect it. First because Serzh Sargsyan, even
during Kocharyan's terms, was already a very weighty figure. And now,
during his term of office, Sargsyan feels like his predecessor did,
though I think there are anyway essential differences between the
behaviors of both presidents. Consequently, it is unlikely that Serzh
Sargsyan leaves his office after one term. The next reason is that
Kocharyan is surely trying to return to politics otherwise the PAP
would not exist today. But I think Kocharyan overestimates his power
which is proven by his reaction to Oskanian's case: he only issues
support. We know that Oskanian is in PAP by the order of Kocharyan.
There are three possibilities of Kocharyan's return: the first is if
there is some agreement with Sargsyan according to which the latter
should leave office after two terms. Second, if Armenia changes its
orientation towards the U.S.. Russia is not excluded to launch some
processes in Armenia, perhaps even a palatial movement to have the
power back for the second president. And the third possibility is the
change of power in Armenia in the result of a new Armenian-Azerbaijani
war.
Are the arrests related to corruption an imitation or an expression
of political will?
Such steps are always done in half-democratic and half-authoritarian
countries. I don't exclude the possibility that Serzh Sargsyan
concluded that the state needs deep changes since the people are out
of patience and that the fight against corruption is the biggest
weapon of the authorities. On the other hand, the fact that these
steps are made in the election period, stands for election activeness.
Nevertheless, I think it will be impossible to solve issues through
such steps. We see no names of influential oligarchs in the lists
of arrested people, but the reason is not necessarily the lack of
political will. It is very difficult to fight this system, it is
difficult even in case of the best wishes of the president. It is
necessary to change the system, otherwise, all the actions will be
for elections in the result of which a group of non-influential people
will appear behind bars.
Who will run for president? And will there be alternatives?
It is difficult to say who will be the ANC nominee but it won't be
Ter-Petrosyan. I think he will be enough intelligent to understand that
the elections, in case he runs, will be his last fiasco. There will
be someone from the ARF Dashnaktsutyun, but I'm sure this candidate
has no chances. The RPA will surely nominate Serzh Sargsyan and the
Heritage - Raffi Hovhannisyan. I think both Oskanian and Tsarukyan are
possible nominees. Robert Kocharyan's a less possible candidate. I
think Serzh Sargsyan, any of the two PAP members and Kocharyan will
compete. Anyway, the election campaign will be dirty.