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GLOBAL POST: DRONE VIOLENCE ALONG ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI BORDER COULD LEAD TO WAR
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2012/10/23/gp-drone-violations/
23.10.12
By Nicholas Clayton
In a region where a fragile peace holds over three frozen conflicts,
the nations of the South Caucasus are buzzing with drones they use
to probe one another's defenses and spy on disputed territories.
The region is also host to strategic oil and gas pipelines and a
tangled web of alliances and precious resources that observers say
threaten to quickly escalate the border skirmishes and airspace
violations to a wider regional conflict triggered by Armenia and
Azerbaijan that could potentially pull in Israel, Russia and Iran.
To some extent, these countries are already being pulled towards
conflict. Last September, Armenia shot down an Israeli-made Azerbaijani
drone over Nagorno-Karabakh and the government claims that drones
have been spotted ahead of recent incursions by Azerbaijani troops
into Armenian-held territory.
Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan,
said in a briefing that attacks this summer showed that Azerbaijan is
eager to "play with its new toys" and its forces showed "impressive
tactical and operational improvement."
The International Crisis Group warned that as the tit-for-tat incidents
become more deadly, "there is a growing risk that the increasing
frontline tensions could lead to an accidental war."
With this in mind, the UN and the Organization for Security and
Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have long imposed a non-binding arms
embargo on both countries, and both are under a de facto arms ban
from the United States. But, according to the Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), this has not stopped Israel and
Russia from selling to them.
After fighting a bloody war in the early 1990s over the disputed
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked
in a stalemate with an oft-violated ceasefire holding a tenuous peace
between them.
And drones are the latest addition to the battlefield. In March,
Azerbaijan signed a $1.6 billion arms deal with Israel, which consisted
largely of advanced drones and an air defense system.
Through this and other deals, Azerbaijan is currently amassing a
squadron of over 100 drones from all three of Israel's top defense
manufacturers.
Armenia, meanwhile, employs only a small number of domestically
produced models.
Intelligence gathering is just one use for drones, which are also
used to spot targets for artillery, and, if armed, strike targets
themselves.
Armenian and Azerbaijani forces routinely snipe and engage one another
along the front, each typically blaming the other for violating the
ceasefire. At least 60 people have been killed in ceasefire violations
in the last two years, and the Brussels-based International Crisis
Group claimed in a report published in February 2011 that the sporadic
violence has claimed hundreds of lives.
"Each (Armenia and Azerbaijan) is apparently using the clashes and the
threat of a new war to pressure its opponent at the negotiations table,
while also preparing for the possibility of a full-scale conflict in
the event of a complete breakdown in the peace talks," the report said.
Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in the
Armenian capital, Yerevan, said that the arms buildup on both sides
makes the situation more dangerous but also said that the clashes are
calculated actions, with higher death tolls becoming a negotiating
tactic.
"This isn't Somalia or Afghanistan. These aren't independent units.
The Armenian, Azerbaijani and Karabakh armed forces have a rigid chain
of command so it's not a question of a sergeant or a lieutenant
randomly giving the order to open fire. These are absolutely
synchronized political attacks," Iskandaryan said.
The deadliest recent uptick in violence along the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border and the line of contact around Karabakh came in early June as
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was on a visit to the region.
While death tolls varied, at least two dozen soldiers were killed or
wounded in a series of shootouts along the front.
The year before, at least four Armenian soldiers were killed in an
alleged border incursion by Azerbaijani troops one day after a peace
summit between the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian presidents in St.
Petersburg, Russia.
"No one slept for two or three days [during the June skirmishes],"
said Grush Agbaryan, the mayor of the border village of Voskepar for
a total of 27 years off and on over the past three decades. "Everyone
is now saying that the war is coming. We know that it could
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2012/10/23/gp-drone-violations/
23.10.12
By Nicholas Clayton
In a region where a fragile peace holds over three frozen conflicts,
the nations of the South Caucasus are buzzing with drones they use
to probe one another's defenses and spy on disputed territories.
The region is also host to strategic oil and gas pipelines and a
tangled web of alliances and precious resources that observers say
threaten to quickly escalate the border skirmishes and airspace
violations to a wider regional conflict triggered by Armenia and
Azerbaijan that could potentially pull in Israel, Russia and Iran.
To some extent, these countries are already being pulled towards
conflict. Last September, Armenia shot down an Israeli-made Azerbaijani
drone over Nagorno-Karabakh and the government claims that drones
have been spotted ahead of recent incursions by Azerbaijani troops
into Armenian-held territory.
Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan,
said in a briefing that attacks this summer showed that Azerbaijan is
eager to "play with its new toys" and its forces showed "impressive
tactical and operational improvement."
The International Crisis Group warned that as the tit-for-tat incidents
become more deadly, "there is a growing risk that the increasing
frontline tensions could lead to an accidental war."
With this in mind, the UN and the Organization for Security and
Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have long imposed a non-binding arms
embargo on both countries, and both are under a de facto arms ban
from the United States. But, according to the Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), this has not stopped Israel and
Russia from selling to them.
After fighting a bloody war in the early 1990s over the disputed
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked
in a stalemate with an oft-violated ceasefire holding a tenuous peace
between them.
And drones are the latest addition to the battlefield. In March,
Azerbaijan signed a $1.6 billion arms deal with Israel, which consisted
largely of advanced drones and an air defense system.
Through this and other deals, Azerbaijan is currently amassing a
squadron of over 100 drones from all three of Israel's top defense
manufacturers.
Armenia, meanwhile, employs only a small number of domestically
produced models.
Intelligence gathering is just one use for drones, which are also
used to spot targets for artillery, and, if armed, strike targets
themselves.
Armenian and Azerbaijani forces routinely snipe and engage one another
along the front, each typically blaming the other for violating the
ceasefire. At least 60 people have been killed in ceasefire violations
in the last two years, and the Brussels-based International Crisis
Group claimed in a report published in February 2011 that the sporadic
violence has claimed hundreds of lives.
"Each (Armenia and Azerbaijan) is apparently using the clashes and the
threat of a new war to pressure its opponent at the negotiations table,
while also preparing for the possibility of a full-scale conflict in
the event of a complete breakdown in the peace talks," the report said.
Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in the
Armenian capital, Yerevan, said that the arms buildup on both sides
makes the situation more dangerous but also said that the clashes are
calculated actions, with higher death tolls becoming a negotiating
tactic.
"This isn't Somalia or Afghanistan. These aren't independent units.
The Armenian, Azerbaijani and Karabakh armed forces have a rigid chain
of command so it's not a question of a sergeant or a lieutenant
randomly giving the order to open fire. These are absolutely
synchronized political attacks," Iskandaryan said.
The deadliest recent uptick in violence along the Armenian-Azerbaijani
border and the line of contact around Karabakh came in early June as
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was on a visit to the region.
While death tolls varied, at least two dozen soldiers were killed or
wounded in a series of shootouts along the front.
The year before, at least four Armenian soldiers were killed in an
alleged border incursion by Azerbaijani troops one day after a peace
summit between the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian presidents in St.
Petersburg, Russia.
"No one slept for two or three days [during the June skirmishes],"
said Grush Agbaryan, the mayor of the border village of Voskepar for
a total of 27 years off and on over the past three decades. "Everyone
is now saying that the war is coming. We know that it could