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Ankara: Who Will Benefit From Developments In Georgia?

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  • Ankara: Who Will Benefit From Developments In Georgia?

    WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM DEVELOPMENTS IN GEORGIA?

    Today's Zaman
    Oct 24 2012
    Turkey

    by Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu*

    The parliamentary elections held this month in Georgia represent
    adaptation to the changing circumstances and democratic developments
    in Caucasia, and it appears that they will lead to some changes in
    the region, as well.

    In the lead-up to election, the successes and failures of Mikhail
    Saakashvili, who pioneered the process of Westernization in the
    country, were the subjects of extensive debate. Within this debate,
    we can point to many factors in the growth of popular support for
    groups in opposition to Saakashvili.

    The Georgian Dream coalition, which garnered 55 percent of the vote
    in defeating Saakashvili's United National Movement, is made up of
    liberal factions and some center-right groups. Businessman Bidzina
    Ivanishvili, the leader of the coalition who only recently got into
    politics, has already gained recognition and fame around the world
    for his party's victory in the election.

    Some of the politicians in the coalition had earlier sided with
    Saakashvili during the Rose Revolution of 2003, which resulted in
    his presidency. But these politicians parted ways with the president
    soon after and joined the opposition against Saakashvili in the
    protests held against him in 2007 and 2009, giving support to Levan
    Gachechiladze in the presidential election held in 2008. The political
    struggle ultimately resulted in the victory of another businessman,
    Bidzina Ivanishvili, this month.

    The influence of the businessman in political administration remains
    controversial in the post-Soviet era in light of a lack of democratic
    progress in countries under the influence of oligarchs so far. There
    are some concerns about the decline of President Saakashvili, who
    introduced remarkable democratic reforms over the past years in
    Georgia, and the potential impacts of this decline in the near future.

    Undoubtedly, Saakashvili has made many mistakes in the implementation
    of his policies based on Western values. In addition to the nationalist
    approach towards the territorial disputes involving Abkhazia and
    South Ossetia, the repression of Muslims in Ajaria and torture in
    prisons have affected Georgians' views on the leader.

    However, the primary reason for Saakashvili's defeat in the
    parliamentary elections is the deterioration in the economy and the
    strong interference in the Soviet-style administration mechanism. The
    Georgian case shows that the adaptation of the people in former Soviet
    states to reform and their readiness and willingness to embrace the
    process of change has great importance. In a country like Georgia
    where ethnic and religious diversity is visible, it is hard for
    Saakashvili to promote reformist policies among the people and make
    them sustainable.

    Concerns over the deterioration in the economy

    Most people hold positive views on the progress secured over
    the last decade; however, they are also visibly concerned about
    the deterioration in the economy, including inflation and growing
    unemployment, as well as troubles associated with Russia's harsh and
    strong policies in the aftermath of the South Ossetia crisis in 2008.

    In his speech after losing the election this year, Saakashvili noted
    that he does not endorse the policies of the Georgian Dream Coalition
    but respects the election results for the sake of democratic progress
    in Georgia. There are now some discussions and controversies on the
    potential policies of the new administration, given that Saakashvili
    has aimed for Westernization in his policies and has eliminated
    bribery and renewed the bureaucracy. The Georgian Dream Coalition has
    no experience in politics and is a diverse and loose coalition that
    includes figures from different political backgrounds. For this reason,
    there are some questions in Georgian minds about its ability to perform
    as a political entity. Analysts suggest that serious disagreements are
    on the horizon within the coalition on how to approach the country's
    thorny issues, something that may lead to political crises. Today,
    the wisest policy that the new government can pursue is reliance on
    reason and wisdom in all major issues that have weakened Georgia and
    deteriorated its economy.

    For his own part, Ivanishvili vowed after his victory to bring Georgia
    into NATO as a full member. However, it will be incumbent on him to
    improve relations with Russia at the same time. The new government's
    political efficacy and policy vis-a-vis Abkhazia and South Ossetia is
    also a matter of curiosity; the government has to embrace ethnic and
    religious groups that have been repressed in the country. Ivanishvili
    remarked during the election campaign that he did not understand why
    Armenians live in Georgia because "they have a country of their own."

    The comment was scorned by Armenians in the predominantly Armenian
    Javakheti region, which gave strong support to Saakashvili in the
    elections. This statement was interpreted with lenience in Armenia,
    where authorities expressed their hope that Tbilisi would seek to
    improve its bilateral relations. Likewise, statements by Abkhaz
    officials emphasize the need for the new government to pursue and
    implement intelligent policies. It is not difficult to predict the
    roadmap and polices of Georgia that would improve its ties with
    neighboring countries including Turkey and Azerbaijan in an effort
    to boost its economy.

    The dramatic reforms that Georgia has introduced so far towards
    becoming a Western state, and the economic progress it has made
    accordingly, is a great opportunity for bordering nations. However,
    given the pro-Russian wind change in Ukraine and the suggestions
    that Ivanishvili is a pro-Russian oligarch, some changes may be
    expected in policies coming from Tbilisi. The US and European states
    viewed Georgia's presidential elections as fair and democratic and
    congratulated its politicians, but Western powers have concerns about
    the new era that Georgia is stepping into. To them, the interests
    of dominant powers in the region are as important as the national
    interests of Georgia.

    *Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is an analyst at the Center for International
    Strategy and Security Studies.



    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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