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WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM DEVELOPMENTS IN GEORGIA?
Today's Zaman
Oct 24 2012
Turkey
by Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu*
The parliamentary elections held this month in Georgia represent
adaptation to the changing circumstances and democratic developments
in Caucasia, and it appears that they will lead to some changes in
the region, as well.
In the lead-up to election, the successes and failures of Mikhail
Saakashvili, who pioneered the process of Westernization in the
country, were the subjects of extensive debate. Within this debate,
we can point to many factors in the growth of popular support for
groups in opposition to Saakashvili.
The Georgian Dream coalition, which garnered 55 percent of the vote
in defeating Saakashvili's United National Movement, is made up of
liberal factions and some center-right groups. Businessman Bidzina
Ivanishvili, the leader of the coalition who only recently got into
politics, has already gained recognition and fame around the world
for his party's victory in the election.
Some of the politicians in the coalition had earlier sided with
Saakashvili during the Rose Revolution of 2003, which resulted in
his presidency. But these politicians parted ways with the president
soon after and joined the opposition against Saakashvili in the
protests held against him in 2007 and 2009, giving support to Levan
Gachechiladze in the presidential election held in 2008. The political
struggle ultimately resulted in the victory of another businessman,
Bidzina Ivanishvili, this month.
The influence of the businessman in political administration remains
controversial in the post-Soviet era in light of a lack of democratic
progress in countries under the influence of oligarchs so far. There
are some concerns about the decline of President Saakashvili, who
introduced remarkable democratic reforms over the past years in
Georgia, and the potential impacts of this decline in the near future.
Undoubtedly, Saakashvili has made many mistakes in the implementation
of his policies based on Western values. In addition to the nationalist
approach towards the territorial disputes involving Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, the repression of Muslims in Ajaria and torture in
prisons have affected Georgians' views on the leader.
However, the primary reason for Saakashvili's defeat in the
parliamentary elections is the deterioration in the economy and the
strong interference in the Soviet-style administration mechanism. The
Georgian case shows that the adaptation of the people in former Soviet
states to reform and their readiness and willingness to embrace the
process of change has great importance. In a country like Georgia
where ethnic and religious diversity is visible, it is hard for
Saakashvili to promote reformist policies among the people and make
them sustainable.
Concerns over the deterioration in the economy
Most people hold positive views on the progress secured over
the last decade; however, they are also visibly concerned about
the deterioration in the economy, including inflation and growing
unemployment, as well as troubles associated with Russia's harsh and
strong policies in the aftermath of the South Ossetia crisis in 2008.
In his speech after losing the election this year, Saakashvili noted
that he does not endorse the policies of the Georgian Dream Coalition
but respects the election results for the sake of democratic progress
in Georgia. There are now some discussions and controversies on the
potential policies of the new administration, given that Saakashvili
has aimed for Westernization in his policies and has eliminated
bribery and renewed the bureaucracy. The Georgian Dream Coalition has
no experience in politics and is a diverse and loose coalition that
includes figures from different political backgrounds. For this reason,
there are some questions in Georgian minds about its ability to perform
as a political entity. Analysts suggest that serious disagreements are
on the horizon within the coalition on how to approach the country's
thorny issues, something that may lead to political crises. Today,
the wisest policy that the new government can pursue is reliance on
reason and wisdom in all major issues that have weakened Georgia and
deteriorated its economy.
For his own part, Ivanishvili vowed after his victory to bring Georgia
into NATO as a full member. However, it will be incumbent on him to
improve relations with Russia at the same time. The new government's
political efficacy and policy vis-a-vis Abkhazia and South Ossetia is
also a matter of curiosity; the government has to embrace ethnic and
religious groups that have been repressed in the country. Ivanishvili
remarked during the election campaign that he did not understand why
Armenians live in Georgia because "they have a country of their own."
The comment was scorned by Armenians in the predominantly Armenian
Javakheti region, which gave strong support to Saakashvili in the
elections. This statement was interpreted with lenience in Armenia,
where authorities expressed their hope that Tbilisi would seek to
improve its bilateral relations. Likewise, statements by Abkhaz
officials emphasize the need for the new government to pursue and
implement intelligent policies. It is not difficult to predict the
roadmap and polices of Georgia that would improve its ties with
neighboring countries including Turkey and Azerbaijan in an effort
to boost its economy.
The dramatic reforms that Georgia has introduced so far towards
becoming a Western state, and the economic progress it has made
accordingly, is a great opportunity for bordering nations. However,
given the pro-Russian wind change in Ukraine and the suggestions
that Ivanishvili is a pro-Russian oligarch, some changes may be
expected in policies coming from Tbilisi. The US and European states
viewed Georgia's presidential elections as fair and democratic and
congratulated its politicians, but Western powers have concerns about
the new era that Georgia is stepping into. To them, the interests
of dominant powers in the region are as important as the national
interests of Georgia.
*Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is an analyst at the Center for International
Strategy and Security Studies.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Today's Zaman
Oct 24 2012
Turkey
by Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu*
The parliamentary elections held this month in Georgia represent
adaptation to the changing circumstances and democratic developments
in Caucasia, and it appears that they will lead to some changes in
the region, as well.
In the lead-up to election, the successes and failures of Mikhail
Saakashvili, who pioneered the process of Westernization in the
country, were the subjects of extensive debate. Within this debate,
we can point to many factors in the growth of popular support for
groups in opposition to Saakashvili.
The Georgian Dream coalition, which garnered 55 percent of the vote
in defeating Saakashvili's United National Movement, is made up of
liberal factions and some center-right groups. Businessman Bidzina
Ivanishvili, the leader of the coalition who only recently got into
politics, has already gained recognition and fame around the world
for his party's victory in the election.
Some of the politicians in the coalition had earlier sided with
Saakashvili during the Rose Revolution of 2003, which resulted in
his presidency. But these politicians parted ways with the president
soon after and joined the opposition against Saakashvili in the
protests held against him in 2007 and 2009, giving support to Levan
Gachechiladze in the presidential election held in 2008. The political
struggle ultimately resulted in the victory of another businessman,
Bidzina Ivanishvili, this month.
The influence of the businessman in political administration remains
controversial in the post-Soviet era in light of a lack of democratic
progress in countries under the influence of oligarchs so far. There
are some concerns about the decline of President Saakashvili, who
introduced remarkable democratic reforms over the past years in
Georgia, and the potential impacts of this decline in the near future.
Undoubtedly, Saakashvili has made many mistakes in the implementation
of his policies based on Western values. In addition to the nationalist
approach towards the territorial disputes involving Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, the repression of Muslims in Ajaria and torture in
prisons have affected Georgians' views on the leader.
However, the primary reason for Saakashvili's defeat in the
parliamentary elections is the deterioration in the economy and the
strong interference in the Soviet-style administration mechanism. The
Georgian case shows that the adaptation of the people in former Soviet
states to reform and their readiness and willingness to embrace the
process of change has great importance. In a country like Georgia
where ethnic and religious diversity is visible, it is hard for
Saakashvili to promote reformist policies among the people and make
them sustainable.
Concerns over the deterioration in the economy
Most people hold positive views on the progress secured over
the last decade; however, they are also visibly concerned about
the deterioration in the economy, including inflation and growing
unemployment, as well as troubles associated with Russia's harsh and
strong policies in the aftermath of the South Ossetia crisis in 2008.
In his speech after losing the election this year, Saakashvili noted
that he does not endorse the policies of the Georgian Dream Coalition
but respects the election results for the sake of democratic progress
in Georgia. There are now some discussions and controversies on the
potential policies of the new administration, given that Saakashvili
has aimed for Westernization in his policies and has eliminated
bribery and renewed the bureaucracy. The Georgian Dream Coalition has
no experience in politics and is a diverse and loose coalition that
includes figures from different political backgrounds. For this reason,
there are some questions in Georgian minds about its ability to perform
as a political entity. Analysts suggest that serious disagreements are
on the horizon within the coalition on how to approach the country's
thorny issues, something that may lead to political crises. Today,
the wisest policy that the new government can pursue is reliance on
reason and wisdom in all major issues that have weakened Georgia and
deteriorated its economy.
For his own part, Ivanishvili vowed after his victory to bring Georgia
into NATO as a full member. However, it will be incumbent on him to
improve relations with Russia at the same time. The new government's
political efficacy and policy vis-a-vis Abkhazia and South Ossetia is
also a matter of curiosity; the government has to embrace ethnic and
religious groups that have been repressed in the country. Ivanishvili
remarked during the election campaign that he did not understand why
Armenians live in Georgia because "they have a country of their own."
The comment was scorned by Armenians in the predominantly Armenian
Javakheti region, which gave strong support to Saakashvili in the
elections. This statement was interpreted with lenience in Armenia,
where authorities expressed their hope that Tbilisi would seek to
improve its bilateral relations. Likewise, statements by Abkhaz
officials emphasize the need for the new government to pursue and
implement intelligent policies. It is not difficult to predict the
roadmap and polices of Georgia that would improve its ties with
neighboring countries including Turkey and Azerbaijan in an effort
to boost its economy.
The dramatic reforms that Georgia has introduced so far towards
becoming a Western state, and the economic progress it has made
accordingly, is a great opportunity for bordering nations. However,
given the pro-Russian wind change in Ukraine and the suggestions
that Ivanishvili is a pro-Russian oligarch, some changes may be
expected in policies coming from Tbilisi. The US and European states
viewed Georgia's presidential elections as fair and democratic and
congratulated its politicians, but Western powers have concerns about
the new era that Georgia is stepping into. To them, the interests
of dominant powers in the region are as important as the national
interests of Georgia.
*Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is an analyst at the Center for International
Strategy and Security Studies.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress