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  • Does Oskanian Expect War?

    DOES OSKANIAN EXPECT WAR?
    Naira Hayrumyan

    Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/country27829.html
    Published: 13:07:09 - 24/10/2012

    It seems that new proposals are expected in the Karabakh issue
    settlement. It is not clear yet where these proposals will come
    from and whether they will become regular unrealized principles,
    but Armenia is already getting ready for them.

    The first was Vartan Oskanian's statement who suddenly proposed to
    sign an agreement with Karabakh on security guarantees. He noted that
    much has changed in the region so, it is necessary to make it clear to
    Azerbaijan that Armenia is ready to recognize Karabakh's independence.

    A similar statement was issued by the ARF Dashnaktsutyun, which
    appealed to sign a military agreement between Armenia and NKR. True,
    in case ARFD would not mind if Armenia recognized the NKR, Vartan
    Oskanian still proposes not to do that step.

    As we know, the meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign
    minister is close. What can the mediators propose?

    The OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zaner said his organization has
    achieved progress in the Transnistrian settlement, but said worried
    with the Karabakh issue.

    Strange events are happening in the Transnistrian issue settlement
    process. The European Union is hinting to Moldova that it may open
    membership prospects to the latter if it solves the Transnistrian
    issue. Russia is actively pulling Transnistria to the Eurasian Union.

    Apparently, Russia is ready to recognize Transnistria with this
    precondition.

    A similar precondition is not ruled out to be put forward to Karabakh:
    if Armenia joins the Union, let Karabakh do it too.

    Most likely, the U.S. and France will try to hold Armenia back
    from this step. They will try to convince Armenia not to allow
    Karabakh integrate into the Eurasian project, at least because the
    NKR recognition by Russia even if Karabakh joins the Eurasian Union,
    will means resumption of hostilities. Perhaps, this is the reason why
    Vartan Oskanian appeals to sign a military agreement with Karabakh. At
    the same time, neither Serzh Sargsyan nor Vartan Oskanian use the
    best weapon against Russia, Azerbaijan and the others- recognition
    of the NKR independence which would immediately solve all the issues.

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