IS WAR RAISIN IN ELECTION?
Hakob Badalyan
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/27880
Comments - Monday, 29 October 2012, 14:22
Serzh Sargsyan made a noteworthy statement during his meeting with
young artists. He said that a lot of spheres of life in Armenia need
funding but Armenia needs to have an army and money to sustain it.
Sargsyan stated that when the situation becomes tense, everyone starts
thinking about security, and when the situation is not so tense,
everyone focuses on daily issues. Sargsyan thinks it is normal and
stresses that in case the situation becomes tense, everyone will
think only for security, not their salary.
This is noteworthy especially on the eve of the presidential elections
and also taking into account the issues Armenia is facing presently.
Prior to the presidential elections, Armenia is facing severe social
issues and economic situation. It is obvious that Serzh Sargsyan is
more vulnerable than his rivals in regard to these issues.
If his rivals stress the social and economic situation, Sargsyan may
face serious difficulties despite the populist social undertakings
of the government.
Actually, at the meeting with the young people Serzh Sargsyan hints
the "alternative" to the social sphere is security when everyone will
forget about salaries.
Security is Serzh Sargsyan's only "credo" which may ensure favorable
conditions for him pushing the social and economic agenda to the
background. The important thing is that the issue of security should
be under his control otherwise Serzh Sargsyan may become the "victim"
of agenda manipulations.
No doubt few efforts are needed to make the situation tense in
Armenia. A small incident at the border may bring this issue forth to
feature the elections. Most probably, this will be Serzh Sargsyan's
"election tool" if other tactical tricks turn out useless to ensure
control over the situation.
Here Serzh Sargsyan will need foreign support. The mediators to
the Karabakh issue should perhaps assume the role of "guarantors"
of the situation because without them Serzh Sargsyan will be unable
to control the developments, and his election trick may grow into a
major provocation.
Judging by the fact that the international community has never been
against the use of the Karabakh issue in home affairs by the Armenian
authorities, presumably it will not disagree with such a scenario this
time either, especially if the issue is to repress possible chaotic
developments in Armenia which are possible because the field of Serzh
Sargsyan's rivals is uncertain and the actors in this sphere have as
many problems with each other as each of them has with Serzh Sargsyan.
The probability of chaotic developments is high because the society's
role is minimal and it has almost no influence on political processes
and actors.
In this case, the role of the society is important not only in
terms of its influence. The issue is that the Armenian society needs
defined approaches to the home political factors, formulas, which
would be the basis for the use of the "security" topic, to help the
society avoid manipulations and not render the important element of
security an obstacle for the public and state development and one of
the reliable sources of continuous reproduction of the system.
Apparently, this issue has been urgent in Armenia for a long time and
it should be one of the key points of the public-political discussions
to bring the society to basic equal ground.
From: Baghdasarian
Hakob Badalyan
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/27880
Comments - Monday, 29 October 2012, 14:22
Serzh Sargsyan made a noteworthy statement during his meeting with
young artists. He said that a lot of spheres of life in Armenia need
funding but Armenia needs to have an army and money to sustain it.
Sargsyan stated that when the situation becomes tense, everyone starts
thinking about security, and when the situation is not so tense,
everyone focuses on daily issues. Sargsyan thinks it is normal and
stresses that in case the situation becomes tense, everyone will
think only for security, not their salary.
This is noteworthy especially on the eve of the presidential elections
and also taking into account the issues Armenia is facing presently.
Prior to the presidential elections, Armenia is facing severe social
issues and economic situation. It is obvious that Serzh Sargsyan is
more vulnerable than his rivals in regard to these issues.
If his rivals stress the social and economic situation, Sargsyan may
face serious difficulties despite the populist social undertakings
of the government.
Actually, at the meeting with the young people Serzh Sargsyan hints
the "alternative" to the social sphere is security when everyone will
forget about salaries.
Security is Serzh Sargsyan's only "credo" which may ensure favorable
conditions for him pushing the social and economic agenda to the
background. The important thing is that the issue of security should
be under his control otherwise Serzh Sargsyan may become the "victim"
of agenda manipulations.
No doubt few efforts are needed to make the situation tense in
Armenia. A small incident at the border may bring this issue forth to
feature the elections. Most probably, this will be Serzh Sargsyan's
"election tool" if other tactical tricks turn out useless to ensure
control over the situation.
Here Serzh Sargsyan will need foreign support. The mediators to
the Karabakh issue should perhaps assume the role of "guarantors"
of the situation because without them Serzh Sargsyan will be unable
to control the developments, and his election trick may grow into a
major provocation.
Judging by the fact that the international community has never been
against the use of the Karabakh issue in home affairs by the Armenian
authorities, presumably it will not disagree with such a scenario this
time either, especially if the issue is to repress possible chaotic
developments in Armenia which are possible because the field of Serzh
Sargsyan's rivals is uncertain and the actors in this sphere have as
many problems with each other as each of them has with Serzh Sargsyan.
The probability of chaotic developments is high because the society's
role is minimal and it has almost no influence on political processes
and actors.
In this case, the role of the society is important not only in
terms of its influence. The issue is that the Armenian society needs
defined approaches to the home political factors, formulas, which
would be the basis for the use of the "security" topic, to help the
society avoid manipulations and not render the important element of
security an obstacle for the public and state development and one of
the reliable sources of continuous reproduction of the system.
Apparently, this issue has been urgent in Armenia for a long time and
it should be one of the key points of the public-political discussions
to bring the society to basic equal ground.
From: Baghdasarian