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ARMENIA'S 'SYMBOLIC' AUTUMN
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27238.html
Published: 17:32:11 - 30/08/2012
CSTO reported that Armenia has requested this organization to
postpone the exercise of the CSTO Fast Reaction Forces initially
scheduled on September 3-8. Armenia referred to technical reasons. In
addition, Armenia requested to postpone for 10 days. The exercise
was re-scheduled on September 15-19.
Along with the CSTO, the Armenian MFA issued a press release which
disclosed the "technical reason". On September 5-6 NATO Secretary
General will visit Armenia. Were the exercise not postponed, the
large-scale CSTO exercise would overlap with Rasmussen's visit.
In any case, the situation would be interesting, if not awkward. It
is interesting who first complained of this coincidence and
whose complaint was taken into consideration by Armenia. Was it
Rasmussen's request who said he would not skip Armenia during his
regional visit if the exercise was not postponed? Perhaps it would
be something unpleasant if he skipped Armenia during his regional
visit. Although, even if the visit were not regional, in the current
stage of improvement of relations with the west official Yerevan
would not refuse the Secretary General of NATO which is one of the
pillars of the Western politics.
On the other hand, what would be there if Russia declined the request
to postpone the exercise and insisted on the initial schedule? Could
Armenia enter into a conflict? Perhaps not. So, the division of CSTO
and NATO was at least the wish of both Brussels and Moscow therefore
CSTO honored the request of Armenia and did not insist on the initially
established timing.
Moreover, it is possible that Moscow has initiated division of the
exercise and the visit of NATO Secretary General.
By the way, it should be noted that the exercise will be held
simultaneously with CSTO Summit, and Rasmussen's visit would overlap
with this event as well.
Armenia's request to postpone CSTO events would hardly have other
more significant reasons though Putin's schedule could be one of such
reasons. Putin was expected to visit Armenia during the exercise. It
is possible that the time was not convenient for him so Armenia agreed
to postpone the event for Putin's visit.
And Armenia usually adjusts its schedule when such issues arise. For
example, he had a meeting with Putin on August 8, in the middle of
his holiday. It also means that Putin does not adjust its schedule
to Armenia's convenience.
Hence, autumn in Armenia will begin not only with local elections full
of domestic intrigues but also a broad and serious foreign political
layer. In addition, Rasmussen comes to Armenia for an unexpected
visit. At least, it was not planned beforehand. The exercise had
been planned a long time ago, while his visit was not even hinted,
and if the exercise is postponed only three-four days before its
starting day, it means Rasmussen's visit was rather unexpected or
other timing for the exercise would have been chosen.
Finally, a more interesting option is possible. It is possible that
Rasmussen comes to Armenia to have the exercise of CSTO postponed for
at least a few days. It could be something symbolic in the current
stage of competition between the West and Russia.
Serzh Sargsyan's decision not to attend NAM in Tehran appears under a
new light. Sargsyan did not announce about his intention to participate
but at the same time he did not refute news that came in July. In
this meaning, his decision not to leave for Tehran was unexpected.
It is possible that this decision, as well as the request to postpone
CSTO exercise, was reasoned by reluctance to hinder the visit of CSTO
Secretary General.
From: Baghdasarian
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27238.html
Published: 17:32:11 - 30/08/2012
CSTO reported that Armenia has requested this organization to
postpone the exercise of the CSTO Fast Reaction Forces initially
scheduled on September 3-8. Armenia referred to technical reasons. In
addition, Armenia requested to postpone for 10 days. The exercise
was re-scheduled on September 15-19.
Along with the CSTO, the Armenian MFA issued a press release which
disclosed the "technical reason". On September 5-6 NATO Secretary
General will visit Armenia. Were the exercise not postponed, the
large-scale CSTO exercise would overlap with Rasmussen's visit.
In any case, the situation would be interesting, if not awkward. It
is interesting who first complained of this coincidence and
whose complaint was taken into consideration by Armenia. Was it
Rasmussen's request who said he would not skip Armenia during his
regional visit if the exercise was not postponed? Perhaps it would
be something unpleasant if he skipped Armenia during his regional
visit. Although, even if the visit were not regional, in the current
stage of improvement of relations with the west official Yerevan
would not refuse the Secretary General of NATO which is one of the
pillars of the Western politics.
On the other hand, what would be there if Russia declined the request
to postpone the exercise and insisted on the initial schedule? Could
Armenia enter into a conflict? Perhaps not. So, the division of CSTO
and NATO was at least the wish of both Brussels and Moscow therefore
CSTO honored the request of Armenia and did not insist on the initially
established timing.
Moreover, it is possible that Moscow has initiated division of the
exercise and the visit of NATO Secretary General.
By the way, it should be noted that the exercise will be held
simultaneously with CSTO Summit, and Rasmussen's visit would overlap
with this event as well.
Armenia's request to postpone CSTO events would hardly have other
more significant reasons though Putin's schedule could be one of such
reasons. Putin was expected to visit Armenia during the exercise. It
is possible that the time was not convenient for him so Armenia agreed
to postpone the event for Putin's visit.
And Armenia usually adjusts its schedule when such issues arise. For
example, he had a meeting with Putin on August 8, in the middle of
his holiday. It also means that Putin does not adjust its schedule
to Armenia's convenience.
Hence, autumn in Armenia will begin not only with local elections full
of domestic intrigues but also a broad and serious foreign political
layer. In addition, Rasmussen comes to Armenia for an unexpected
visit. At least, it was not planned beforehand. The exercise had
been planned a long time ago, while his visit was not even hinted,
and if the exercise is postponed only three-four days before its
starting day, it means Rasmussen's visit was rather unexpected or
other timing for the exercise would have been chosen.
Finally, a more interesting option is possible. It is possible that
Rasmussen comes to Armenia to have the exercise of CSTO postponed for
at least a few days. It could be something symbolic in the current
stage of competition between the West and Russia.
Serzh Sargsyan's decision not to attend NAM in Tehran appears under a
new light. Sargsyan did not announce about his intention to participate
but at the same time he did not refute news that came in July. In
this meaning, his decision not to leave for Tehran was unexpected.
It is possible that this decision, as well as the request to postpone
CSTO exercise, was reasoned by reluctance to hinder the visit of CSTO
Secretary General.
From: Baghdasarian