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AZERI SWINDLE, HUNGARIAN...WHAT EXACTLY?
portfolio.hu
http://www.portfolio.hu/en/economy/azeri_swindle_hungarian_what_exactly.24780.html
Sept 3 2012
Hungary
"It is an illusion to think that anywould finance Hungary while
having no meaningful economic relation with it," an expert close to
the government told me a few months ago at a background talk with
economists. This person explained in relation with a futile attempt
by Budapest to tap Arab funds that you can hardly expect a country
to invest in your government securities before establishing trade
relations, relations between parent companies and subsidiaries and
personal business experiences. From this point of view, a substantial
credit relation can be only the last stage in an economic co-operation
between two countries. Bearing in mind the aforementioned we have a
few thoughts about the Azeri fiasco that is all over the media now -
not just in Hungary but internationally.
Azerbaijain eerily resembles a country with which Hungary has no
meaningful trade relations, which can show no relations between
Azeri parents and Hungarian subsidiaries and no personal business
experiences. Of course, there are a few projects you may bring
up as an example to contradict, but it remains a fact that in the
glorious year of 2009 a mere one percent of Hungary~Rs exports were
directed to the Azeri market. And that was, by far, the best year in
Hungarian-Azeri trade relations. The share of Azeri imports is even
smaller than that. At a national economy level the two countries are
practically non-existent for each other.
You don~Rt need to be an expert in economic diplomacy to admit: sending
home a confessed and convicted murderer is a most impotent catalyst to
deepening such an indifferent relation. If it~Rs about transferring a
convict from one prison to another, the economic and political value
of the story is virtually negligible. But if Azerbaijan goes back on
its promise, we have a whole different situation on our hands.
Let~Rs pretend you are Azerbaijan. Would you dare to become a creditor
of a nation you just screwed over? They have got everything they had
hoped to gain from this relation and the already non-existent trust
is probably gone for years at least. The only hope one may nurture
is that honour will rule over rationality in President Aliyev~Rs mind.
In view of that we should take a look at the costs and benefits
of this case. There is a good chance that yet another attempt at
an unorthodox way of debt financing has gone up in flames, and
that Hungary~Rs perception worsened even further in the eye of the
country~Rs creditors.
Also it gained further evidence that there are huge problems with
the level of professionalism at Hungary~Rs economic policy. Opening
towards the east, which might as well be a pragmatic programme, is
no more than a pipe dream in its current form. The strategy is not
thought through - in the short term Hungary could offer only its debt,
natural resources and market. It deserves no further explanation why
the first is not wanted; the second is not for sale and the third
is too small to be attractive. And on top of this impatient and bad
strategy the execution is downright appalling.
The current case is a perfect example to underpin the last statement.
While Budapest may be able to convince the world that it did not
mistake a butcher for a national hero, still a lot of people will
think that engaging with Hungary is worth it only if they want to do
something crooked.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
portfolio.hu
http://www.portfolio.hu/en/economy/azeri_swindle_hungarian_what_exactly.24780.html
Sept 3 2012
Hungary
"It is an illusion to think that anywould finance Hungary while
having no meaningful economic relation with it," an expert close to
the government told me a few months ago at a background talk with
economists. This person explained in relation with a futile attempt
by Budapest to tap Arab funds that you can hardly expect a country
to invest in your government securities before establishing trade
relations, relations between parent companies and subsidiaries and
personal business experiences. From this point of view, a substantial
credit relation can be only the last stage in an economic co-operation
between two countries. Bearing in mind the aforementioned we have a
few thoughts about the Azeri fiasco that is all over the media now -
not just in Hungary but internationally.
Azerbaijain eerily resembles a country with which Hungary has no
meaningful trade relations, which can show no relations between
Azeri parents and Hungarian subsidiaries and no personal business
experiences. Of course, there are a few projects you may bring
up as an example to contradict, but it remains a fact that in the
glorious year of 2009 a mere one percent of Hungary~Rs exports were
directed to the Azeri market. And that was, by far, the best year in
Hungarian-Azeri trade relations. The share of Azeri imports is even
smaller than that. At a national economy level the two countries are
practically non-existent for each other.
You don~Rt need to be an expert in economic diplomacy to admit: sending
home a confessed and convicted murderer is a most impotent catalyst to
deepening such an indifferent relation. If it~Rs about transferring a
convict from one prison to another, the economic and political value
of the story is virtually negligible. But if Azerbaijan goes back on
its promise, we have a whole different situation on our hands.
Let~Rs pretend you are Azerbaijan. Would you dare to become a creditor
of a nation you just screwed over? They have got everything they had
hoped to gain from this relation and the already non-existent trust
is probably gone for years at least. The only hope one may nurture
is that honour will rule over rationality in President Aliyev~Rs mind.
In view of that we should take a look at the costs and benefits
of this case. There is a good chance that yet another attempt at
an unorthodox way of debt financing has gone up in flames, and
that Hungary~Rs perception worsened even further in the eye of the
country~Rs creditors.
Also it gained further evidence that there are huge problems with
the level of professionalism at Hungary~Rs economic policy. Opening
towards the east, which might as well be a pragmatic programme, is
no more than a pipe dream in its current form. The strategy is not
thought through - in the short term Hungary could offer only its debt,
natural resources and market. It deserves no further explanation why
the first is not wanted; the second is not for sale and the third
is too small to be attractive. And on top of this impatient and bad
strategy the execution is downright appalling.
The current case is a perfect example to underpin the last statement.
While Budapest may be able to convince the world that it did not
mistake a butcher for a national hero, still a lot of people will
think that engaging with Hungary is worth it only if they want to do
something crooked.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress