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A POSSIBLE CHRONOLOGY OF THE AZERI-HUNGARIAN NEGOTIATIONS
hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com
September 2, 2012
By now we can more or less piece together the chronology of the
Azeri-Hungarian negotiations about the transfer of Lieutenant Ramil
Safarov of Azerbaijan from a Hungarian jail where he was serving a life
sentence for the murder of an Armenian officer to Baku on August 31.
Azeri politicians keep emphasizing that the initiative for Safarov's
release came from Azerbaijan. They had never given up the idea of
this national hero's return to the homeland. This is also confirmed
by Ferenc Gyurcsány, prime minister when Safarov was sentenced,
who said that Azeri pressure on the Hungarian government was
considerable. Gyurcsány claims, however, that the politicians serving
in the prime minister's office at the time came to the conclusion that
the likelihood of the Azeri authorities letting Safarov loose once
he arrived on Azeri soil was high. Therefore, as Azeri politicians
repeatedly said in the last few days, the "Hungarians were stubborn
and refused to negotiate."
But as soon as Fidesz won the elections the negative Hungarian
attitude to the Azeri request changed. Azeri politicians talk about
negotiations lasting over a year that eventually ended in Safarov's
release. In 2010 Viktor Orbán visited Baku for a conference, but it
is unlikely that the topic was discussed seriously then. Sometime in
2011, however, the Hungarians became willing to oblige.
It was in mid-November 2011 that Pál Schmitt spent time in Baku where
the topic was definitely discussed. We know that from an interview
with Zahid Oruj, a member of the Azeri parliamentary committee for
defense and security, who claimed that "Azerbaijan during Safarov's
stay in prison was twice able to negotiate with the Hungarian side to
release him. However, the first time this arrangement was disrupted by
the resignation of the President of Hungary." I can deduce from this
statement that Viktor Orbán sent Schmitt to Baku to begin tentative
negotiations for a deal with the Azeri government in exchange for
Safarov's transfer to Azerbaijan. Shortly after Schmitt's trip, in
early January 2012, Schmitt's plagiarism case was discovered and the
negotiations came to a screeching halt.
Once the Schmitt affair was over in April, the Hungarian government
must have indicated to the Azeris that Hungary was ready to resume
conversations on the topic. Moreover, the offer must have been couched
in language that offered hope for Azeri success because on May 29
Péter Szijjártó, in those days still the personal spokesman for the
prime minister, announced that Viktor Orbán had accepted the Azeri
president's personal invitation to visit Baku. Although Orbán didn't
make the trip to Azerbaijan until the end of June, on June 8 a letter
was dispatched from the Hungarian Ministry of Public Administration
asking the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Azerbaijan to state
what steps they would take in case Hungary releases Safarov. In this
letter the Hungarians wanted to have assurances from Azerbaijan that
the Azeri government would honor the stipulations of the Strasbourg
Convention on the Transfer of Sentenced Persons of 1983.
The Azeri Ministry of Justice took its sweet time answering this
letter. It was only on August 15 that the following letter, written
in rather fractured English, was sent to Tibor Navracsics's ministry:
The Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Azerbaijan presents its
compliments to the Ministry of Public Administration and Justice of
Hungary and has the honor to inform the following.
As a response to your inquiry about Ramil Sahib Safarov, who is serving
his sentence in Hungary, we inform you that the execution of the courts
decisions of the foreign states regarding the transfer of sentenced
persons to serve the remaining part of their prison sentences in the
Republic of Azerbaijan is carried out in accordance with Article 9
paragraph 1 point a) of the European Convention without any conversion
and without having to go through any new judicial procedure.
Please be also informed that in accordance with Article 57.3 of
the Criminal Code of the Republic of Azerbaijan the punishment of
a convict who is serving a life sentence could only be replaced
by court with an imprisonment for a certain period or he could be
released on conditional parole, only after he has served at least
twenty-five years of his sentence.
It is difficult to understand what prompted the long delay between
the Hungarian inquiry of June 8 and the Azeri answer of August 15.
Perhaps some details had to be ironed out. Péter Szijjártó's
visit to Baku on July 23 might have been part of this process. It is
also possible that what the Azeris wanted to know was whether the
assurance that was eventually sent on August 15 would satisfy the
Hungarians. Given what followed next, the answer had to be positive.
On the basis of my reading of the reports from Azerbaijan, Armenia,
and Hungary I am coming to the conclusion that János Martonyi's
foreign ministry was left out of the loop completely. That's why
the ministry was so sluggish responding to Safarov's pardon by
the Azeri president. When reporters asked its spokesman about the
ministry's reaction, the answer was that "they are still studying the
matter." Well, if they had been involved in the negotiations all along,
they wouldn't have needed to study the details after the fact.
It was only this afternoon that Zsolt Németh, undersecretary of the
Hungarian foreign ministry, handed a memorandum to Vilayat Guliyev,
Azeri ambassador in Budapest, to the effect that "Hungary finds the
Azeri procedure in the extradition of Safarov unacceptable."
Some Hungarian commentators think that since it was the ministry
of administration and justice, together with Péter Szijjártó,
who were involved in the negotiations it was a lack of diplomatic
experience that caused the "misunderstanding." I don't believe this
for a moment. It's hard to picture Viktor Orbán as a babe in arms or
"an aging teenager," as Gáspár Miklós Tamás called him, who is so
naive that he cannot read a legal document or who is totally unaware
of the very precarious political and military situation in the region.
I think Orbán knew what he was doing. He desperately wants to avoid
a loan from the IMF because that would limit his freedom of action.
He tried to get China and later Saudi Arabia to purchase Hungarian
government bonds, but he failed. Just this year Hungary will have to
pay back 4.7 billion euros worth of loans. Azerbaijan promised to buy
2-3 billion euros worth of Hungarian government bonds. He was ready
to strike a bargain. It seems even with the devil.
This time the churches raised their voices. Cardinal Péter ErdÅ',
head of the Hungarian Catholic Church, expressed the solidarity of
the Hungarian Conference of Bishops with the Armenian Christians
and the Armenian people. The Calvinists and the Lutherans went even
further, stating that "the church leaders don't doubt the legality
of the steps taken by the Hungarian authorities but they condemn
their consequences."
DK organized a small demonstration of diehards in front of the
parliament building. I assume the demonstration that the Facebook
group, Hey Armenia, Sorry about our Prime Minister, is planning for
Tuesday will be more robust. Meanwhile the number of supporters of the
initative is well over 8,000. Hungarians seem to be really disgusted
with the Orbán government's policies at home and abroad. One day
the whole thing will boil over. I'm almost sure
hungarianspectrum.wordpress.com
September 2, 2012
By now we can more or less piece together the chronology of the
Azeri-Hungarian negotiations about the transfer of Lieutenant Ramil
Safarov of Azerbaijan from a Hungarian jail where he was serving a life
sentence for the murder of an Armenian officer to Baku on August 31.
Azeri politicians keep emphasizing that the initiative for Safarov's
release came from Azerbaijan. They had never given up the idea of
this national hero's return to the homeland. This is also confirmed
by Ferenc Gyurcsány, prime minister when Safarov was sentenced,
who said that Azeri pressure on the Hungarian government was
considerable. Gyurcsány claims, however, that the politicians serving
in the prime minister's office at the time came to the conclusion that
the likelihood of the Azeri authorities letting Safarov loose once
he arrived on Azeri soil was high. Therefore, as Azeri politicians
repeatedly said in the last few days, the "Hungarians were stubborn
and refused to negotiate."
But as soon as Fidesz won the elections the negative Hungarian
attitude to the Azeri request changed. Azeri politicians talk about
negotiations lasting over a year that eventually ended in Safarov's
release. In 2010 Viktor Orbán visited Baku for a conference, but it
is unlikely that the topic was discussed seriously then. Sometime in
2011, however, the Hungarians became willing to oblige.
It was in mid-November 2011 that Pál Schmitt spent time in Baku where
the topic was definitely discussed. We know that from an interview
with Zahid Oruj, a member of the Azeri parliamentary committee for
defense and security, who claimed that "Azerbaijan during Safarov's
stay in prison was twice able to negotiate with the Hungarian side to
release him. However, the first time this arrangement was disrupted by
the resignation of the President of Hungary." I can deduce from this
statement that Viktor Orbán sent Schmitt to Baku to begin tentative
negotiations for a deal with the Azeri government in exchange for
Safarov's transfer to Azerbaijan. Shortly after Schmitt's trip, in
early January 2012, Schmitt's plagiarism case was discovered and the
negotiations came to a screeching halt.
Once the Schmitt affair was over in April, the Hungarian government
must have indicated to the Azeris that Hungary was ready to resume
conversations on the topic. Moreover, the offer must have been couched
in language that offered hope for Azeri success because on May 29
Péter Szijjártó, in those days still the personal spokesman for the
prime minister, announced that Viktor Orbán had accepted the Azeri
president's personal invitation to visit Baku. Although Orbán didn't
make the trip to Azerbaijan until the end of June, on June 8 a letter
was dispatched from the Hungarian Ministry of Public Administration
asking the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Azerbaijan to state
what steps they would take in case Hungary releases Safarov. In this
letter the Hungarians wanted to have assurances from Azerbaijan that
the Azeri government would honor the stipulations of the Strasbourg
Convention on the Transfer of Sentenced Persons of 1983.
The Azeri Ministry of Justice took its sweet time answering this
letter. It was only on August 15 that the following letter, written
in rather fractured English, was sent to Tibor Navracsics's ministry:
The Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Azerbaijan presents its
compliments to the Ministry of Public Administration and Justice of
Hungary and has the honor to inform the following.
As a response to your inquiry about Ramil Sahib Safarov, who is serving
his sentence in Hungary, we inform you that the execution of the courts
decisions of the foreign states regarding the transfer of sentenced
persons to serve the remaining part of their prison sentences in the
Republic of Azerbaijan is carried out in accordance with Article 9
paragraph 1 point a) of the European Convention without any conversion
and without having to go through any new judicial procedure.
Please be also informed that in accordance with Article 57.3 of
the Criminal Code of the Republic of Azerbaijan the punishment of
a convict who is serving a life sentence could only be replaced
by court with an imprisonment for a certain period or he could be
released on conditional parole, only after he has served at least
twenty-five years of his sentence.
It is difficult to understand what prompted the long delay between
the Hungarian inquiry of June 8 and the Azeri answer of August 15.
Perhaps some details had to be ironed out. Péter Szijjártó's
visit to Baku on July 23 might have been part of this process. It is
also possible that what the Azeris wanted to know was whether the
assurance that was eventually sent on August 15 would satisfy the
Hungarians. Given what followed next, the answer had to be positive.
On the basis of my reading of the reports from Azerbaijan, Armenia,
and Hungary I am coming to the conclusion that János Martonyi's
foreign ministry was left out of the loop completely. That's why
the ministry was so sluggish responding to Safarov's pardon by
the Azeri president. When reporters asked its spokesman about the
ministry's reaction, the answer was that "they are still studying the
matter." Well, if they had been involved in the negotiations all along,
they wouldn't have needed to study the details after the fact.
It was only this afternoon that Zsolt Németh, undersecretary of the
Hungarian foreign ministry, handed a memorandum to Vilayat Guliyev,
Azeri ambassador in Budapest, to the effect that "Hungary finds the
Azeri procedure in the extradition of Safarov unacceptable."
Some Hungarian commentators think that since it was the ministry
of administration and justice, together with Péter Szijjártó,
who were involved in the negotiations it was a lack of diplomatic
experience that caused the "misunderstanding." I don't believe this
for a moment. It's hard to picture Viktor Orbán as a babe in arms or
"an aging teenager," as Gáspár Miklós Tamás called him, who is so
naive that he cannot read a legal document or who is totally unaware
of the very precarious political and military situation in the region.
I think Orbán knew what he was doing. He desperately wants to avoid
a loan from the IMF because that would limit his freedom of action.
He tried to get China and later Saudi Arabia to purchase Hungarian
government bonds, but he failed. Just this year Hungary will have to
pay back 4.7 billion euros worth of loans. Azerbaijan promised to buy
2-3 billion euros worth of Hungarian government bonds. He was ready
to strike a bargain. It seems even with the devil.
This time the churches raised their voices. Cardinal Péter ErdÅ',
head of the Hungarian Catholic Church, expressed the solidarity of
the Hungarian Conference of Bishops with the Armenian Christians
and the Armenian people. The Calvinists and the Lutherans went even
further, stating that "the church leaders don't doubt the legality
of the steps taken by the Hungarian authorities but they condemn
their consequences."
DK organized a small demonstration of diehards in front of the
parliament building. I assume the demonstration that the Facebook
group, Hey Armenia, Sorry about our Prime Minister, is planning for
Tuesday will be more robust. Meanwhile the number of supporters of the
initative is well over 8,000. Hungarians seem to be really disgusted
with the Orbán government's policies at home and abroad. One day
the whole thing will boil over. I'm almost sure