Tweet
EUROPEAN OR EURASIAN?: ARMENIA CONTINUES ITS SEARCH FOR FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
04.09.12 | 13:15
Political autumn came early in Armenia as the struggle of Russia and
the West over wielding more influence in Armenia began to take more
prominent features already in August.
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who paid an unscheduled visit to
Moscow on August 8, apparently agreed to Armenia joining the Eurasian
Union, a nascent Russian project widely believed to be an effort to
restore the former Soviet Union.
A real public debate is now on in Armenia over Russian President
Vladimir Putin's proposal on the establishment of the Eurasian Union,
with advocates of the "back to the USSR" mode still failing to
provide any solid arguments for such a move. Opponents, meanwhile,
argue that the project has not even gotten off the drawing board
and debating on whether to join it or not is premature given that
no one knows exactly what it is going to be like. Still, all seem to
understand that Putin is going to take all sorts of steps to achieve
the fulfillment of his dream of collecting the peoples of the former
Soviet Union back under Russia's roof.
One such steps may become the military exercises of the Rapid Reaction
Force (RRF) of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) that was originally due to be held in Armenia on September 3-7,
with the participation of the presidents of the CSTO-member states
(Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Putin's
visit was supposed to become the strongest argument in favor of
"returning to the USSR".
But the war games were suddenly postponed for 12 days. Perhaps this is
due to the fact that Russia these days is busy holding an Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation summit, which also appears to be very important
for Putin. And the exercises were eventually postponed to make it more
convenient for him to pay a visit to Armenia. Meanwhile, on September
5, again with an unplanned visit, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh
Rasmussen is scheduled to visit Armenia. It is yet not known what he
might propose to the South Caucasus country.
It is remarkable that Armenia, which had planned to participate in the
summit of the recent Non-Aligned Movement in Iran at the presidential
level, at the last moment decided to send the foreign minister to
Tehran instead. And it happened after Reuters published a "preemptive"
story about Iran using Armenian banks to launder its "nuclear" money.
All these events have exacerbated the geopolitical choice for Armenia.
Where to go - west or north? Armenia does seem to have one clear
answer to this question. But apparently it will have to give only
one clear answer and do it now as it will be presidential election
time soon and the main contenders in this election are likely to be
geared to different foreign policy orientations.
The incumbent president clearly states his European orientation,
although the steps of his government on reforming the oligarchic system
do not seem quite effective to Western partners now. The West argues
that Armenia does not have enough political will. And it is not known
yet whether Western democracies will support Sargsyan's reelection bid.
Nor is it known who is going to become Sargsyan's main rival and
advocate of the Russian direction. Some say Armenia's second president
Robert Kocharyan could join in the fray, but he hasn't spoken yet
whether he is going to run for president again or not. Much is likely
to depend on Putin's ability to convince Armenia to seek salvation
in Russia.
The developments around the extradition of Ramil Safarov, an
Azerbaijani army officer who axe-murdered a sleeping Armenian in
Hungary eight years ago and was handed over and immediately pardoned
in Azerbaijan on August 31, are being used for this purpose. The
Russian press has already published some materials claiming that the
Armenians are disappointed with European justice, the West and NATO.
But most importantly, experts who appear to be serving the interests
of Russia, began to suggest that the Safarov case requires a
retaliation. It is obvious that if the Armenian side, or someone
instead of it, provokes an incident in Karabakh and Azerbaijan
responds, Putin will have a good occasion for introducing Russian
forces or the CSTO's RRF into Karabakh. If troops are sent to Karabakh,
it will be a strong argument in favor of the Eurasian Union.
From: A. Papazian
By Naira Hayrumyan
ArmeniaNow
04.09.12 | 13:15
Political autumn came early in Armenia as the struggle of Russia and
the West over wielding more influence in Armenia began to take more
prominent features already in August.
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who paid an unscheduled visit to
Moscow on August 8, apparently agreed to Armenia joining the Eurasian
Union, a nascent Russian project widely believed to be an effort to
restore the former Soviet Union.
A real public debate is now on in Armenia over Russian President
Vladimir Putin's proposal on the establishment of the Eurasian Union,
with advocates of the "back to the USSR" mode still failing to
provide any solid arguments for such a move. Opponents, meanwhile,
argue that the project has not even gotten off the drawing board
and debating on whether to join it or not is premature given that
no one knows exactly what it is going to be like. Still, all seem to
understand that Putin is going to take all sorts of steps to achieve
the fulfillment of his dream of collecting the peoples of the former
Soviet Union back under Russia's roof.
One such steps may become the military exercises of the Rapid Reaction
Force (RRF) of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) that was originally due to be held in Armenia on September 3-7,
with the participation of the presidents of the CSTO-member states
(Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Putin's
visit was supposed to become the strongest argument in favor of
"returning to the USSR".
But the war games were suddenly postponed for 12 days. Perhaps this is
due to the fact that Russia these days is busy holding an Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation summit, which also appears to be very important
for Putin. And the exercises were eventually postponed to make it more
convenient for him to pay a visit to Armenia. Meanwhile, on September
5, again with an unplanned visit, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh
Rasmussen is scheduled to visit Armenia. It is yet not known what he
might propose to the South Caucasus country.
It is remarkable that Armenia, which had planned to participate in the
summit of the recent Non-Aligned Movement in Iran at the presidential
level, at the last moment decided to send the foreign minister to
Tehran instead. And it happened after Reuters published a "preemptive"
story about Iran using Armenian banks to launder its "nuclear" money.
All these events have exacerbated the geopolitical choice for Armenia.
Where to go - west or north? Armenia does seem to have one clear
answer to this question. But apparently it will have to give only
one clear answer and do it now as it will be presidential election
time soon and the main contenders in this election are likely to be
geared to different foreign policy orientations.
The incumbent president clearly states his European orientation,
although the steps of his government on reforming the oligarchic system
do not seem quite effective to Western partners now. The West argues
that Armenia does not have enough political will. And it is not known
yet whether Western democracies will support Sargsyan's reelection bid.
Nor is it known who is going to become Sargsyan's main rival and
advocate of the Russian direction. Some say Armenia's second president
Robert Kocharyan could join in the fray, but he hasn't spoken yet
whether he is going to run for president again or not. Much is likely
to depend on Putin's ability to convince Armenia to seek salvation
in Russia.
The developments around the extradition of Ramil Safarov, an
Azerbaijani army officer who axe-murdered a sleeping Armenian in
Hungary eight years ago and was handed over and immediately pardoned
in Azerbaijan on August 31, are being used for this purpose. The
Russian press has already published some materials claiming that the
Armenians are disappointed with European justice, the West and NATO.
But most importantly, experts who appear to be serving the interests
of Russia, began to suggest that the Safarov case requires a
retaliation. It is obvious that if the Armenian side, or someone
instead of it, provokes an incident in Karabakh and Azerbaijan
responds, Putin will have a good occasion for introducing Russian
forces or the CSTO's RRF into Karabakh. If troops are sent to Karabakh,
it will be a strong argument in favor of the Eurasian Union.
From: A. Papazian