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SPARK IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS?
Hayes Brown
UN Dispatch
Sept 5 2012
Azerbaijan and Armenia could be set for another flare-up after the
pardon of a convicted murderer. The two Caucasus states have been at
each others' throats for almost 90 years, but have managed to keep a
relative, though highly strained, peace for the last two decades. The
release of Ramil Safarov, an Azeri military officer, may be what sets
the two down the path to war once more.
Lt. Safarov was convicted in Hungary following the axe-murder of
Armenian Lt. Gurgen Makarian during a NATO training course in 2004. In
exchange for his return, the Azeri government promised to keep Safarov
imprisoned - instead he found himself released and promoted to Major.
The news was not received well in Armenia, where protests against
Hungary broke out. Nor was the reasoning given by Azerbaijan:
Nagorno-Karabakh. The small region, contained entirely within
Azerbaijan, is composed of ethnic Armenians, a legacy of Stalin's
'divide and conquer' tactics in the Soviet Union. Following the
dissolution of the USSR, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a full-scale
war over who would take control of the enclave.
Since a cease-fire in 1994, the region has been held by Armenian troops
and local ethnic Armenian fighters. The Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe has had the lead on the diplomatic side
via their Minsk Group, hosting talks between the two to attempt to
determine a final status of the Nagorno-Karabahk region. So far no
settlement has been reached.
A renewed fighting between the two states would be troubling for
several reasons. First, the ethnic conflict between the two has shades
of the 1990s Balkans Wars within them, and once released could be hard
to contain. The second, Azerbaijan has since the end of the war become
a supplier of oil and natural gas for Europe and the region. A surge
in conflict could reduce its flow to Turkey and the European Union,
raising energy prices. Third, both are of strategic importance,
considering that they border Iran, something that Israel has taken
note of.
Finally, renewed conflict would likely bring Russia onto the scene
in a big way. The Russian Federation is the regional hegemon and has
profited off of the tense status quo between the two states. Per a
report from the International Peace Institute's Global Observatory:
Russia, while not interested in war in the region, profits by
maintaining instability in the South Caucasus, playing off the
interests of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey, and making itself
look like a more reliable source and transit country for natural
gas than Azerbaijan (which exports its gas to Europe via Georgia and
Turkey). Russia appears to be more of an arms broker than an honest
broker. Despite being one of the chief negotiators in the peace
process, Russia, according to a recent SIPRI report, supplied 55% of
Azerbaijan's arms imports and 96% of Armenia's between 2007 and 2011.
Any break in that balance could provoke Russian intervention, a
prospect that neither side would likely relish. It is also uncertain
how the conflict would play out in the UN Security Council. When the
issue was last raised, the newly minted Russian Federation's foreign
policy was markedly different than today's and the OSCE was given
free-reign diplomatically to end the fighting. Also, it is worth
noting that Azerbaijan current holds a non-permanent seat on the
Council as well.
There have been several skirmishes since the cease-fire, but the rise
of Azerbaijan's fortunes due to it's energy exports may be shifting
the balance that has kept the two in check. The Caucasus has managed
to avoid the horrors that the Balkans suffered in the 1990s. Strong,
timely diplomatic intervention by the OSCE and United Nations is
needed to prevent that from changing.
http://www.undispatch.com/a-spark-in-the-south-caucasus
Hayes Brown
UN Dispatch
Sept 5 2012
Azerbaijan and Armenia could be set for another flare-up after the
pardon of a convicted murderer. The two Caucasus states have been at
each others' throats for almost 90 years, but have managed to keep a
relative, though highly strained, peace for the last two decades. The
release of Ramil Safarov, an Azeri military officer, may be what sets
the two down the path to war once more.
Lt. Safarov was convicted in Hungary following the axe-murder of
Armenian Lt. Gurgen Makarian during a NATO training course in 2004. In
exchange for his return, the Azeri government promised to keep Safarov
imprisoned - instead he found himself released and promoted to Major.
The news was not received well in Armenia, where protests against
Hungary broke out. Nor was the reasoning given by Azerbaijan:
Nagorno-Karabakh. The small region, contained entirely within
Azerbaijan, is composed of ethnic Armenians, a legacy of Stalin's
'divide and conquer' tactics in the Soviet Union. Following the
dissolution of the USSR, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a full-scale
war over who would take control of the enclave.
Since a cease-fire in 1994, the region has been held by Armenian troops
and local ethnic Armenian fighters. The Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe has had the lead on the diplomatic side
via their Minsk Group, hosting talks between the two to attempt to
determine a final status of the Nagorno-Karabahk region. So far no
settlement has been reached.
A renewed fighting between the two states would be troubling for
several reasons. First, the ethnic conflict between the two has shades
of the 1990s Balkans Wars within them, and once released could be hard
to contain. The second, Azerbaijan has since the end of the war become
a supplier of oil and natural gas for Europe and the region. A surge
in conflict could reduce its flow to Turkey and the European Union,
raising energy prices. Third, both are of strategic importance,
considering that they border Iran, something that Israel has taken
note of.
Finally, renewed conflict would likely bring Russia onto the scene
in a big way. The Russian Federation is the regional hegemon and has
profited off of the tense status quo between the two states. Per a
report from the International Peace Institute's Global Observatory:
Russia, while not interested in war in the region, profits by
maintaining instability in the South Caucasus, playing off the
interests of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey, and making itself
look like a more reliable source and transit country for natural
gas than Azerbaijan (which exports its gas to Europe via Georgia and
Turkey). Russia appears to be more of an arms broker than an honest
broker. Despite being one of the chief negotiators in the peace
process, Russia, according to a recent SIPRI report, supplied 55% of
Azerbaijan's arms imports and 96% of Armenia's between 2007 and 2011.
Any break in that balance could provoke Russian intervention, a
prospect that neither side would likely relish. It is also uncertain
how the conflict would play out in the UN Security Council. When the
issue was last raised, the newly minted Russian Federation's foreign
policy was markedly different than today's and the OSCE was given
free-reign diplomatically to end the fighting. Also, it is worth
noting that Azerbaijan current holds a non-permanent seat on the
Council as well.
There have been several skirmishes since the cease-fire, but the rise
of Azerbaijan's fortunes due to it's energy exports may be shifting
the balance that has kept the two in check. The Caucasus has managed
to avoid the horrors that the Balkans suffered in the 1990s. Strong,
timely diplomatic intervention by the OSCE and United Nations is
needed to prevent that from changing.
http://www.undispatch.com/a-spark-in-the-south-caucasus