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PARDON OF AX KILLER MAY REKINDLE WAR IN OIL-RICH CAUCASUS (BAKU)
NorthJersey.com
http://www.northjersey.com/news/international/168649266_Pardon_of_Ax_Killer_May_Rekindle_War_in_ Oil-Rich_Caucasus__Baku_.html?page=all
Sept 5 2012
BAKU-AZERBAIJAN ~W Azerbaijan's pardon of a man convicted of killing
an Armenian army officer with an ax risks reigniting a 20-year-old
war between the two foes in the energy- rich South Caucasus.
Ramil Safarov, who was serving a life sentence for slaying Gurgen
Margaryan in Budapest in 2004, was pardoned by Azeri President Ilham
Aliyev and promoted after Hungary transferred him home Friday.
Armenia's parliament was to hold an emergency session Wednesday while
Europe, the United States and Russia have expressed "deep concern"
about regional stability.
After the 1991 Soviet breakup, energy-exporter Azerbaijan fought
Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, leaving tens of thousands
dead and more than 1 million displaced. While border skirmishes since
a 1994 cease-fire haven't triggered renewed conflict, Safarov being
honored threatens the status quo. The territory remains a potential
flash point in a region that borders Iran and Turkey and endured a
2008 Russia-Georgia war.
Safarov's pardon "is a serious blow to confidence building and trust
between Azerbaijan and Armenia," Sabine Freizer, director of the
International Crisis Group's Europe Program in Istanbul, said Tuesday.
"Both in Baku and in Yerevan, there's a growing public impression that
the time to return to war to defeat the enemy permanently has come."
The Armenian dram strengthened less than 0.1 percent against the
dollar today to 410.5500 after falling yesterday to the weakest level
since Aug. 21, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Azeri manat was
unchanged at 0.7845 per dollar.
Armenia has severed diplomatic ties with Hungary and lawmakers plan
to condemn Azerbaijan's actions. President Serzh Sargsyan expressed
anger at the decision to pardon Safarov.
"The Armenians must not be underestimated. We don't want a war, but
if we have to, we will fight and win," he said Sept. 2 in comments
published on his website for Nagorno-Karabakh's Independence Day. "We
are not afraid of murderers, even of those who enjoy the highest
patronage. And again our words fall on deaf ears. Well, they have
been warned."
Armenian terrorist organization ASALA, which has previously claimed
responsibility for killing Turkish diplomats, sent a threatening letter
to Azerbaijan's embassy in Budapest, Azartac, the Azeri state-run news
service, reported Tuesday. Security at embassies has been stepped up,
the Foreign Ministry said.
Sargsyan has instructed his security services to kill Safarov,
Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said. Phone calls Tuesday evening to
Armen Arzumanyan, a spokesman for the Armenian president's office,
went unanswered.
Peace in the region "depends entirely on Armenia," Elnur Aslanov,
head of the political analysis and information- provision department
at the Azeri president's office, said Tuesday, calling Sargsyan's
comments provocative.
"It's a bit odd to hear such bloodthirsty threats and calls for
intolerance from a head of state in the 21st century," Aslanov said.
Safarov, a lieutenant when he committed the murder, received a hero's
welcome last week in the Azeri capital, Baku, and was promoted to
the rank of major. He was also given eight years' of back pay and an
apartment, the APA news service reported, citing the Defense Ministry.
Safarov, 35, had been attending language classes with Margaryan in
Budapest in February 2004 as part of training conducted by the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization.
The U.S., France and Russia, which are leading efforts to resolve
the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, Sept. 3 urged Azerbaijan and Armenia
to persist with negotiations.
"We are communicating to the Azerbaijani authorities our
disappointment about the decision to pardon Safarov," the White House
said Friday. "This action is contrary to ongoing efforts to reduce
regional tensions and promote reconciliation."
President Obama and his French and Russian counterparts called in
June on the two former Soviet republics to accelerate a road map for
resolving the status of Nagorno- Karabakh, respect the 1994 cease-fire
agreement and abstain from hostile rhetoric.
Talks brokered by Russia last year between Sargsyan and Aliyev failed
to yield an accord on the so-called Basic Principles to allow a
peace agreement to be reached. Azerbaijan's and Hungary's actions
undermine international efforts to reduce tensions in the region,
Russia's Foreign Ministry said Monday.
The European Union said the same day that it was in contact with both
sides in a bid to head off any potential hostilities.
"We are particularly concerned about the possible impact that
these developments might have on the wider region," Maja Kocijancic,
spokeswoman for European Union foreign-affairs chief Catherine Ashton,
told reporters in Brussels. "We call on Azerbaijan and Armenia to
exercise restraint on the ground and in public statements in order
to prevent any kind of escalation of this situation."
Companies led by London-based BP Plc have invested more than $35
billion in Azerbaijan's oil and natural-gas fields. Azerbaijan can
pump as much as 1.2 million barrels of oil a day to Turkey through
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which is part-funded by the West
to allow supplies to bypass Russia.
The country may also be a source of natural gas for Azerbaijan's
EU-backed Trans-Anatolia pipeline across Turkey.
Azerbaijan, whose economy grew 0.1 percent last year, used surging oil
prices to double military spending to more than $2 billion in 2010,
emboldening Aliyev to threaten the use of military force to regain
Nagorno-Karabakh. Regular border clashes continue to break out.
Military spending will reach $3.6 billion this year, about 60 percent
more than Armenia's state budget, Aliyev told a Cabinet meeting in
June. Azerbaijan's army numbers 56,840, according to The Military
Balance 2012, published by the International Institute for Strategic
Studies in London.
Armenia's economy is set to expand 3.8 percent this year, according
to the International Monetary Fund. Growth is helped by large amounts
of investment from Iran, which has benefited as Armenia's ties with
Azerbaijan and Turkey have soured, Vadim Mukhanov, an analyst at the
Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said today by phone.
Armenia's army totals 45,846, more than half of which are conscripts,
while Russia's air force provides national air defense, according to
The Military Balance.
The fallout over Safarov's release probably won't spark a new armed
conflict, according to Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East analyst at
the Carnegie Center in Moscow.
"There have been more border skirmishes between the two countries this
year, but this is far from a war," he said yesterday by phone. The
situation simply shows that the two countries "aren't prioritizing
reconciliation."
June was the deadliest month "in a long time" for border clashes, with
at least 10 people confirmed killed, the ICG's Freizer said. An Azeri
soldier died and another was wounded in clashes along the cease-fire
line last week, according to Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry. Armenia
denies Azeri claims that two of its soldiers were also killed.
The "glorification" of Margaryan's murder by Azerbaijan closes any
avenues for normalizing relations with Armenia and should concern
the West and Russia, according to IHS Global Insight analyst Lilit
Gevorgyan.
This "certainly increases the security risk for the region," Gevorgyan
said by e-mail. "A new war is the last thing that the EU, U.S. and
Russia need right now in that region with the escalation of relations
with Iran."
With assistance from Edith Balazs in Budapest, Helena Bedwell in
Tbilisi, Jones Hayden in Brussels and Stepan Kravchenko and Stephen
Bierman in Moscow.
From: Baghdasarian
NorthJersey.com
http://www.northjersey.com/news/international/168649266_Pardon_of_Ax_Killer_May_Rekindle_War_in_ Oil-Rich_Caucasus__Baku_.html?page=all
Sept 5 2012
BAKU-AZERBAIJAN ~W Azerbaijan's pardon of a man convicted of killing
an Armenian army officer with an ax risks reigniting a 20-year-old
war between the two foes in the energy- rich South Caucasus.
Ramil Safarov, who was serving a life sentence for slaying Gurgen
Margaryan in Budapest in 2004, was pardoned by Azeri President Ilham
Aliyev and promoted after Hungary transferred him home Friday.
Armenia's parliament was to hold an emergency session Wednesday while
Europe, the United States and Russia have expressed "deep concern"
about regional stability.
After the 1991 Soviet breakup, energy-exporter Azerbaijan fought
Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, leaving tens of thousands
dead and more than 1 million displaced. While border skirmishes since
a 1994 cease-fire haven't triggered renewed conflict, Safarov being
honored threatens the status quo. The territory remains a potential
flash point in a region that borders Iran and Turkey and endured a
2008 Russia-Georgia war.
Safarov's pardon "is a serious blow to confidence building and trust
between Azerbaijan and Armenia," Sabine Freizer, director of the
International Crisis Group's Europe Program in Istanbul, said Tuesday.
"Both in Baku and in Yerevan, there's a growing public impression that
the time to return to war to defeat the enemy permanently has come."
The Armenian dram strengthened less than 0.1 percent against the
dollar today to 410.5500 after falling yesterday to the weakest level
since Aug. 21, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Azeri manat was
unchanged at 0.7845 per dollar.
Armenia has severed diplomatic ties with Hungary and lawmakers plan
to condemn Azerbaijan's actions. President Serzh Sargsyan expressed
anger at the decision to pardon Safarov.
"The Armenians must not be underestimated. We don't want a war, but
if we have to, we will fight and win," he said Sept. 2 in comments
published on his website for Nagorno-Karabakh's Independence Day. "We
are not afraid of murderers, even of those who enjoy the highest
patronage. And again our words fall on deaf ears. Well, they have
been warned."
Armenian terrorist organization ASALA, which has previously claimed
responsibility for killing Turkish diplomats, sent a threatening letter
to Azerbaijan's embassy in Budapest, Azartac, the Azeri state-run news
service, reported Tuesday. Security at embassies has been stepped up,
the Foreign Ministry said.
Sargsyan has instructed his security services to kill Safarov,
Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said. Phone calls Tuesday evening to
Armen Arzumanyan, a spokesman for the Armenian president's office,
went unanswered.
Peace in the region "depends entirely on Armenia," Elnur Aslanov,
head of the political analysis and information- provision department
at the Azeri president's office, said Tuesday, calling Sargsyan's
comments provocative.
"It's a bit odd to hear such bloodthirsty threats and calls for
intolerance from a head of state in the 21st century," Aslanov said.
Safarov, a lieutenant when he committed the murder, received a hero's
welcome last week in the Azeri capital, Baku, and was promoted to
the rank of major. He was also given eight years' of back pay and an
apartment, the APA news service reported, citing the Defense Ministry.
Safarov, 35, had been attending language classes with Margaryan in
Budapest in February 2004 as part of training conducted by the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization.
The U.S., France and Russia, which are leading efforts to resolve
the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, Sept. 3 urged Azerbaijan and Armenia
to persist with negotiations.
"We are communicating to the Azerbaijani authorities our
disappointment about the decision to pardon Safarov," the White House
said Friday. "This action is contrary to ongoing efforts to reduce
regional tensions and promote reconciliation."
President Obama and his French and Russian counterparts called in
June on the two former Soviet republics to accelerate a road map for
resolving the status of Nagorno- Karabakh, respect the 1994 cease-fire
agreement and abstain from hostile rhetoric.
Talks brokered by Russia last year between Sargsyan and Aliyev failed
to yield an accord on the so-called Basic Principles to allow a
peace agreement to be reached. Azerbaijan's and Hungary's actions
undermine international efforts to reduce tensions in the region,
Russia's Foreign Ministry said Monday.
The European Union said the same day that it was in contact with both
sides in a bid to head off any potential hostilities.
"We are particularly concerned about the possible impact that
these developments might have on the wider region," Maja Kocijancic,
spokeswoman for European Union foreign-affairs chief Catherine Ashton,
told reporters in Brussels. "We call on Azerbaijan and Armenia to
exercise restraint on the ground and in public statements in order
to prevent any kind of escalation of this situation."
Companies led by London-based BP Plc have invested more than $35
billion in Azerbaijan's oil and natural-gas fields. Azerbaijan can
pump as much as 1.2 million barrels of oil a day to Turkey through
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which is part-funded by the West
to allow supplies to bypass Russia.
The country may also be a source of natural gas for Azerbaijan's
EU-backed Trans-Anatolia pipeline across Turkey.
Azerbaijan, whose economy grew 0.1 percent last year, used surging oil
prices to double military spending to more than $2 billion in 2010,
emboldening Aliyev to threaten the use of military force to regain
Nagorno-Karabakh. Regular border clashes continue to break out.
Military spending will reach $3.6 billion this year, about 60 percent
more than Armenia's state budget, Aliyev told a Cabinet meeting in
June. Azerbaijan's army numbers 56,840, according to The Military
Balance 2012, published by the International Institute for Strategic
Studies in London.
Armenia's economy is set to expand 3.8 percent this year, according
to the International Monetary Fund. Growth is helped by large amounts
of investment from Iran, which has benefited as Armenia's ties with
Azerbaijan and Turkey have soured, Vadim Mukhanov, an analyst at the
Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said today by phone.
Armenia's army totals 45,846, more than half of which are conscripts,
while Russia's air force provides national air defense, according to
The Military Balance.
The fallout over Safarov's release probably won't spark a new armed
conflict, according to Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East analyst at
the Carnegie Center in Moscow.
"There have been more border skirmishes between the two countries this
year, but this is far from a war," he said yesterday by phone. The
situation simply shows that the two countries "aren't prioritizing
reconciliation."
June was the deadliest month "in a long time" for border clashes, with
at least 10 people confirmed killed, the ICG's Freizer said. An Azeri
soldier died and another was wounded in clashes along the cease-fire
line last week, according to Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry. Armenia
denies Azeri claims that two of its soldiers were also killed.
The "glorification" of Margaryan's murder by Azerbaijan closes any
avenues for normalizing relations with Armenia and should concern
the West and Russia, according to IHS Global Insight analyst Lilit
Gevorgyan.
This "certainly increases the security risk for the region," Gevorgyan
said by e-mail. "A new war is the last thing that the EU, U.S. and
Russia need right now in that region with the escalation of relations
with Iran."
With assistance from Edith Balazs in Budapest, Helena Bedwell in
Tbilisi, Jones Hayden in Brussels and Stepan Kravchenko and Stephen
Bierman in Moscow.
From: Baghdasarian