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AX KILLER'S PARDON REIGNITES WAR FEARS IN OIL-RICH CAUCASUS
Bloomberg / Business Week
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-04/ax-killer-pardon-reignites-caucasus-war-fears-in-oil-rich-region
Sept 5 2012
By Zulfugar Agayev and Henry Meyer on September 05, 2012
Azerbaijan's pardon of a convicted murderer who killed an Armenian
army officer with an ax risks reigniting a 20-year-old war between
the two foes in the energy- rich South Caucasus.
Ramil Safarov, who was serving a life sentence for slaying Gurgen
Margaryan in Budapest in 2004, was pardoned by Azeri President Ilham
Aliyev and promoted after Hungary transferred him home Aug. 31.
Armenia's parliament will hold an emergency session today, while
Europe, the U.S. and Russia have expressed "deep concern" about
regional stability.
Energy-exporter Azerbaijan fought Armenia over the Nagorno- Karabakh
enclave after the 1991 Soviet breakup, leaving tens of thousands dead
and more than 1 million displaced. While border skirmishes since a
1994 cease fire haven't triggered renewed conflict, Safarov being
honored threatens the status quo. The territory remains a potential
flash point in a region that borders Iran and Turkey and endured a
2008 Russia-Georgia war.
Safarov's pardon "is a serious blow to confidence building and
trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia," Sabine Freizer, director of
the International Crisis Group's Europe Program in Istanbul, said
yesterday by e-mail. "Both in Baku and in Yerevan, there's a growing
public impression that the time to return to war to defeat the enemy
permanently has come."
Dram, Manat
The Armenian dram strengthened less than 0.1 percent against the
dollar today to 410.5500 after falling yesterday to the weakest level
since Aug. 21, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Azeri manat was
unchanged at 0.7845 per dollar.
Armenia has severed diplomatic ties with Hungary and lawmakers said
today in a statement that Azerbaijan's "cynical" actions in rewarding
the perpetrator of a "xenophobic" crime undermine regional security.
President Serzh Sargsyan expressed anger at the decision to pardon
Safarov.
"The Armenians must not be underestimated -- we don't want a war,
but if we have to, we will fight and win," he said Sept. 2 in comments
published on his website for Nagorno-Karabakh's Independence Day. "We
are not afraid of murderers, even of those who enjoy the highest
patronage. And again our words fall on deaf ears. Well, they have
been warned."
Armenian terrorist organization ASALA, which has previously claimed
responsibility for killing Turkish diplomats, sent a threatening
letter to Azerbaijan's embassy in Budapest, Azartac, the Azeri
state-run news service, reported yesterday. Security at embassies
has been stepped up, the Foreign Ministry said.
Security Services
Sargsyan has instructed his security services to kill Safarov,
Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said. Tigran Balayan, a spokesman for
the Armenia's Foreign Ministry, and presidential spokesman Arman
Arzumanyan declined to comment today.
Peace in the region "depends entirely on Armenia," Elnur Aslanov,
head of the political analysis and information- provision department
at the Azeri president's office, said yesterday by e-mail. He called
Sargsyan's comments provocative.
"It's a bit odd to hear such bloodthirsty threats and calls for
intolerance from a head of state in the 21st century," Aslanov wrote.
Safarov, who was a lieutenant when he committed the murder, received a
hero's welcome in the Azeri capital of Baku last week and was promoted
to the rank of major. He was also given eight years' of back pay and an
apartment, the APA news service reported, citing the Defense Ministry.
NATO Training
Safarov, 35, had been attending language classes with Margaryan in
Budapest in February 2004 as part of training conducted by the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization.
The U.S., France and Russia, which are leading efforts to resolve
the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, Sept. 3 urged Azerbaijan and Armenia
to persist with negotiations.
"We are communicating to the Azerbaijani authorities our disappointment
about the decision to pardon Safarov," the White House said Aug. 31
in a statement. "This action is contrary to ongoing efforts to reduce
regional tensions and promote reconciliation."
U.S. President Barack Obama and his French and Russian counterparts
called in June on the two former Soviet republics to accelerate a
road map for resolving the status of Nagorno- Karabakh, respect the
1994 cease-fire agreement and abstain from hostile rhetoric.
Peace Talks
Talks brokered by Russia last year between Sargsyan and Aliyev failed
to yield an accord on the so-called Basic Principles to allow a
peace agreement to be reached. Azerbaijan's and Hungary's actions
undermine international efforts to reduce tensions in the region,
Russia's Foreign Ministry said Sept. 3.
The European Union said the same day that it was in contact with both
sides in a bid to head off any potential hostilities.
"We are particularly concerned about the possible impact that
these developments might have on the wider region," Maja Kocijancic,
spokeswoman for European Union foreign-affairs chief Catherine Ashton,
told reporters in Brussels. "We call on Azerbaijan and Armenia to
exercise restraint on the ground and in public statements in order
to prevent any kind of escalation of this situation."
Companies led by London-based BP Plc (BP/) have invested more than $35
billion in Azerbaijan's oil and natural-gas fields. Azerbaijan can
pump as many as 1.2 million barrels of oil a day to Turkey through
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which is part-funded by the West
to allow supplies to bypass Russia.
Military Spending
The country may also be a source of natural gas for Azerbaijan's
EU-backed Trans-Anatolia pipeline across Turkey.
Azerbaijan, whose economy grew 0.1 percent last year, used surging oil
prices to double military spending to more than $2 billion in 2010,
emboldening Aliyev to threaten the use of military force to regain
Nagorno-Karabakh. Regular border clashes continue to break out.
Military spending will reach $3.6 billion this year, about 60 percent
more than Armenia's state budget, Aliyev told a Cabinet meeting in
June. Azerbaijan's army numbers 56,840, according to The Military
Balance 2012, published by the International Institute for Strategic
Studies in London.
Armenia's economy is set to expand 3.8 percent this year, according
to the International Monetary Fund. Growth is helped by large amounts
of investment from Iran, which has benefited as Armenia's ties with
Azerbaijan and Turkey have soured, Vadim Mukhanov, an analyst at the
Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said today by phone.
Russian Support
Armenia's army totals 45,846, more than half of which are conscripts,
while Russia's air force provides national air defense, according to
The Military Balance.
The fallout over Safarov's release probably won't spark a new armed
conflict, according to Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East analyst at
the Carnegie Center in Moscow.
"There have been more border skirmishes between the two countries this
year, but this is far from a war," he said yesterday by phone. The
situation simply shows that the two countries "aren't prioritizing
reconciliation."
June was the deadliest month "in a long time" for border clashes, with
at least 10 people confirmed killed, the ICG's Freizer said. An Azeri
soldier died and another was wounded in clashes along the cease-fire
line last week, according to Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry. Armenia
denies Azeri claims that two of its soldiers were also killed.
The "glorification" of Margaryan's murder by Azerbaijan closes any
avenues for normalizing relations with Armenia and should concern
the West and Russia, according to IHS Global Insight analyst Lilit
Gevorgyan.
This "certainly increases the security risk for the region," Gevorgyan
said by e-mail. "A new war is the last thing that the EU, U.S. and
Russia need right now in that region with the escalation of relations
with Iran."
Bloomberg / Business Week
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-04/ax-killer-pardon-reignites-caucasus-war-fears-in-oil-rich-region
Sept 5 2012
By Zulfugar Agayev and Henry Meyer on September 05, 2012
Azerbaijan's pardon of a convicted murderer who killed an Armenian
army officer with an ax risks reigniting a 20-year-old war between
the two foes in the energy- rich South Caucasus.
Ramil Safarov, who was serving a life sentence for slaying Gurgen
Margaryan in Budapest in 2004, was pardoned by Azeri President Ilham
Aliyev and promoted after Hungary transferred him home Aug. 31.
Armenia's parliament will hold an emergency session today, while
Europe, the U.S. and Russia have expressed "deep concern" about
regional stability.
Energy-exporter Azerbaijan fought Armenia over the Nagorno- Karabakh
enclave after the 1991 Soviet breakup, leaving tens of thousands dead
and more than 1 million displaced. While border skirmishes since a
1994 cease fire haven't triggered renewed conflict, Safarov being
honored threatens the status quo. The territory remains a potential
flash point in a region that borders Iran and Turkey and endured a
2008 Russia-Georgia war.
Safarov's pardon "is a serious blow to confidence building and
trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia," Sabine Freizer, director of
the International Crisis Group's Europe Program in Istanbul, said
yesterday by e-mail. "Both in Baku and in Yerevan, there's a growing
public impression that the time to return to war to defeat the enemy
permanently has come."
Dram, Manat
The Armenian dram strengthened less than 0.1 percent against the
dollar today to 410.5500 after falling yesterday to the weakest level
since Aug. 21, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Azeri manat was
unchanged at 0.7845 per dollar.
Armenia has severed diplomatic ties with Hungary and lawmakers said
today in a statement that Azerbaijan's "cynical" actions in rewarding
the perpetrator of a "xenophobic" crime undermine regional security.
President Serzh Sargsyan expressed anger at the decision to pardon
Safarov.
"The Armenians must not be underestimated -- we don't want a war,
but if we have to, we will fight and win," he said Sept. 2 in comments
published on his website for Nagorno-Karabakh's Independence Day. "We
are not afraid of murderers, even of those who enjoy the highest
patronage. And again our words fall on deaf ears. Well, they have
been warned."
Armenian terrorist organization ASALA, which has previously claimed
responsibility for killing Turkish diplomats, sent a threatening
letter to Azerbaijan's embassy in Budapest, Azartac, the Azeri
state-run news service, reported yesterday. Security at embassies
has been stepped up, the Foreign Ministry said.
Security Services
Sargsyan has instructed his security services to kill Safarov,
Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said. Tigran Balayan, a spokesman for
the Armenia's Foreign Ministry, and presidential spokesman Arman
Arzumanyan declined to comment today.
Peace in the region "depends entirely on Armenia," Elnur Aslanov,
head of the political analysis and information- provision department
at the Azeri president's office, said yesterday by e-mail. He called
Sargsyan's comments provocative.
"It's a bit odd to hear such bloodthirsty threats and calls for
intolerance from a head of state in the 21st century," Aslanov wrote.
Safarov, who was a lieutenant when he committed the murder, received a
hero's welcome in the Azeri capital of Baku last week and was promoted
to the rank of major. He was also given eight years' of back pay and an
apartment, the APA news service reported, citing the Defense Ministry.
NATO Training
Safarov, 35, had been attending language classes with Margaryan in
Budapest in February 2004 as part of training conducted by the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization.
The U.S., France and Russia, which are leading efforts to resolve
the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, Sept. 3 urged Azerbaijan and Armenia
to persist with negotiations.
"We are communicating to the Azerbaijani authorities our disappointment
about the decision to pardon Safarov," the White House said Aug. 31
in a statement. "This action is contrary to ongoing efforts to reduce
regional tensions and promote reconciliation."
U.S. President Barack Obama and his French and Russian counterparts
called in June on the two former Soviet republics to accelerate a
road map for resolving the status of Nagorno- Karabakh, respect the
1994 cease-fire agreement and abstain from hostile rhetoric.
Peace Talks
Talks brokered by Russia last year between Sargsyan and Aliyev failed
to yield an accord on the so-called Basic Principles to allow a
peace agreement to be reached. Azerbaijan's and Hungary's actions
undermine international efforts to reduce tensions in the region,
Russia's Foreign Ministry said Sept. 3.
The European Union said the same day that it was in contact with both
sides in a bid to head off any potential hostilities.
"We are particularly concerned about the possible impact that
these developments might have on the wider region," Maja Kocijancic,
spokeswoman for European Union foreign-affairs chief Catherine Ashton,
told reporters in Brussels. "We call on Azerbaijan and Armenia to
exercise restraint on the ground and in public statements in order
to prevent any kind of escalation of this situation."
Companies led by London-based BP Plc (BP/) have invested more than $35
billion in Azerbaijan's oil and natural-gas fields. Azerbaijan can
pump as many as 1.2 million barrels of oil a day to Turkey through
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which is part-funded by the West
to allow supplies to bypass Russia.
Military Spending
The country may also be a source of natural gas for Azerbaijan's
EU-backed Trans-Anatolia pipeline across Turkey.
Azerbaijan, whose economy grew 0.1 percent last year, used surging oil
prices to double military spending to more than $2 billion in 2010,
emboldening Aliyev to threaten the use of military force to regain
Nagorno-Karabakh. Regular border clashes continue to break out.
Military spending will reach $3.6 billion this year, about 60 percent
more than Armenia's state budget, Aliyev told a Cabinet meeting in
June. Azerbaijan's army numbers 56,840, according to The Military
Balance 2012, published by the International Institute for Strategic
Studies in London.
Armenia's economy is set to expand 3.8 percent this year, according
to the International Monetary Fund. Growth is helped by large amounts
of investment from Iran, which has benefited as Armenia's ties with
Azerbaijan and Turkey have soured, Vadim Mukhanov, an analyst at the
Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said today by phone.
Russian Support
Armenia's army totals 45,846, more than half of which are conscripts,
while Russia's air force provides national air defense, according to
The Military Balance.
The fallout over Safarov's release probably won't spark a new armed
conflict, according to Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East analyst at
the Carnegie Center in Moscow.
"There have been more border skirmishes between the two countries this
year, but this is far from a war," he said yesterday by phone. The
situation simply shows that the two countries "aren't prioritizing
reconciliation."
June was the deadliest month "in a long time" for border clashes, with
at least 10 people confirmed killed, the ICG's Freizer said. An Azeri
soldier died and another was wounded in clashes along the cease-fire
line last week, according to Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry. Armenia
denies Azeri claims that two of its soldiers were also killed.
The "glorification" of Margaryan's murder by Azerbaijan closes any
avenues for normalizing relations with Armenia and should concern
the West and Russia, according to IHS Global Insight analyst Lilit
Gevorgyan.
This "certainly increases the security risk for the region," Gevorgyan
said by e-mail. "A new war is the last thing that the EU, U.S. and
Russia need right now in that region with the escalation of relations
with Iran."