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The Safarov Affair Could Be The Key For Unlocking The Karabakh Dead

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  • The Safarov Affair Could Be The Key For Unlocking The Karabakh Dead

    THE SAFAROV AFFAIR COULD BE THE KEY FOR UNLOCKING THE KARABAKH DEAD LOCK

    http://times.am/?l=en&p=12000

    The Safarov affair has sailed up as a bizarre breach of international
    agreements, where the rule of law can evidently collapse once it
    crosses borders. Hungary insists that the extradition was carried out
    according to international laws and that they had received assurances
    from Azerbaijan.

    Budapest also refutes any connections to the promised Azerbaijani
    billion Euro purchase of Hungarian state bonds. Had it not been
    for the extraordinary nature of the brutal killing - hacking a
    "Partnership for Peace" colleague to death while he was sleeping -
    the international community might have looked the other way. However,
    it was impossible to do so.

    Neither EU nor other major players have, yet, made any demands
    towards the regime in Baku to uphold the law breached. They have
    been some condemnation of the Azerbaijani President's pardoning,
    but the emphasis has rather been on calls to Azerbaijan and Armenia
    to restrain their statements so that the fragile situation in the
    region is not destabilized any further. With other words, put a lid
    on it till it blows over. It is up to Yerevan to prevent this from
    happening. This means that Armenia should not waste efforts and energy
    on reprimanding Hungary. Armenia neither wants to alienate Hungary
    nor can Hungary reverse any of the happened events.

    This whole incident could very much be the well-needed turning point
    of the Karabakh conflict. That is if Yerevan plays its cards well. No
    sensible individual could at this moment even hint on the alternative
    of putting the Armenian populated Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani
    rule, not when the sentiments of the Baku are this evident. Baku,
    on the other hand, could no longer go to a negotiation table and
    assert that they are sincere in guaranteeing the safety of Karabakh
    Armenians and their equality as citizens within Azerbaijan.

    Let it be said that the displayed sentiment by official Baku can
    impossibly be that of the entire Azerbaijani society. The common
    sensible person on the street must realize that an ax murderer,
    convicted rightfully for his confessed crime, should not be freed,
    promoted, celebrated and elevated to hero. Notwithstanding, this is
    unfortunately the prevailing atmosphere in a totalitarian Azerbaijan,
    where the regime has not much of tolerance towards its own (read
    ethnic Azerbaijanis) dissidents, saved that of a rogue population,
    who has fought a bitter war with the central government and demands
    its right to self-determination. This intolerance has constantly been
    pointed out by the Armenian side, but now Baku has staged it in an
    undisputable manner.

    So, the ball is in Yerevan's court. Reading the course of the events -
    from the murder to the extradition and the pardoning and celebration
    of Safarov - the international community cannot but agree that putting
    Karabakh under Baku's rule is not an option. At least if they don't
    strive for a rapid ethnic cleansing of Karabakh from its Armenian
    population.

    However, as always, the realpolitik always prevails. In a week or
    two, EU and USA will try to slowly but surely abandon this whole
    inconvenient affair for securing the delivery of the much needed gas
    and oil from Azerbaijan.

    It is no secret that Armenia has been on the defensive during the
    past years, military as well as diplomatically. It was not only the
    conquered military positions that were in defensive position, but with
    increasing incomes from the Azeri oil and gas revenues, Armenia has
    been outdistanced diplomatically by Azerbaijan on the international
    arena as well. The energy resources have granted Azerbaijan everything
    from a non-permanent sit in the UN Security Council to a victory in
    the Eurovision Song Contest. Now, the Safarov affair has removed any
    doubts about the real attitude of Baku towards the Armenian population
    and at the same time provided the opening for a diplomatic offensive.

    This might very well be the leverage which Yerevan and Stepanakert
    need to once and for all break the decade long dead lock in the
    conflict by pointing to the inevitable solution of the conflict.

    Stepanakert's right to self-determination, as envisaged in the Madrid
    Protocols, must be enforced in order to bring this conflict to a
    closure. For that, Stepanakert must be recognized as a legitimate
    partner at the negotiation table and allowed back as they were in
    the beginning of the negotiation process. The events of the past week
    simply do not leave room for any other solution.

    Vahagn AVEDIAN

    Chief Editor, Armenica.org

    05.09.12, 16:50

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