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THE SAFAROV AFFAIR COULD BE THE KEY FOR UNLOCKING THE KARABAKH DEAD LOCK
http://times.am/?l=en&p=12000
The Safarov affair has sailed up as a bizarre breach of international
agreements, where the rule of law can evidently collapse once it
crosses borders. Hungary insists that the extradition was carried out
according to international laws and that they had received assurances
from Azerbaijan.
Budapest also refutes any connections to the promised Azerbaijani
billion Euro purchase of Hungarian state bonds. Had it not been
for the extraordinary nature of the brutal killing - hacking a
"Partnership for Peace" colleague to death while he was sleeping -
the international community might have looked the other way. However,
it was impossible to do so.
Neither EU nor other major players have, yet, made any demands
towards the regime in Baku to uphold the law breached. They have
been some condemnation of the Azerbaijani President's pardoning,
but the emphasis has rather been on calls to Azerbaijan and Armenia
to restrain their statements so that the fragile situation in the
region is not destabilized any further. With other words, put a lid
on it till it blows over. It is up to Yerevan to prevent this from
happening. This means that Armenia should not waste efforts and energy
on reprimanding Hungary. Armenia neither wants to alienate Hungary
nor can Hungary reverse any of the happened events.
This whole incident could very much be the well-needed turning point
of the Karabakh conflict. That is if Yerevan plays its cards well. No
sensible individual could at this moment even hint on the alternative
of putting the Armenian populated Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani
rule, not when the sentiments of the Baku are this evident. Baku,
on the other hand, could no longer go to a negotiation table and
assert that they are sincere in guaranteeing the safety of Karabakh
Armenians and their equality as citizens within Azerbaijan.
Let it be said that the displayed sentiment by official Baku can
impossibly be that of the entire Azerbaijani society. The common
sensible person on the street must realize that an ax murderer,
convicted rightfully for his confessed crime, should not be freed,
promoted, celebrated and elevated to hero. Notwithstanding, this is
unfortunately the prevailing atmosphere in a totalitarian Azerbaijan,
where the regime has not much of tolerance towards its own (read
ethnic Azerbaijanis) dissidents, saved that of a rogue population,
who has fought a bitter war with the central government and demands
its right to self-determination. This intolerance has constantly been
pointed out by the Armenian side, but now Baku has staged it in an
undisputable manner.
So, the ball is in Yerevan's court. Reading the course of the events -
from the murder to the extradition and the pardoning and celebration
of Safarov - the international community cannot but agree that putting
Karabakh under Baku's rule is not an option. At least if they don't
strive for a rapid ethnic cleansing of Karabakh from its Armenian
population.
However, as always, the realpolitik always prevails. In a week or
two, EU and USA will try to slowly but surely abandon this whole
inconvenient affair for securing the delivery of the much needed gas
and oil from Azerbaijan.
It is no secret that Armenia has been on the defensive during the
past years, military as well as diplomatically. It was not only the
conquered military positions that were in defensive position, but with
increasing incomes from the Azeri oil and gas revenues, Armenia has
been outdistanced diplomatically by Azerbaijan on the international
arena as well. The energy resources have granted Azerbaijan everything
from a non-permanent sit in the UN Security Council to a victory in
the Eurovision Song Contest. Now, the Safarov affair has removed any
doubts about the real attitude of Baku towards the Armenian population
and at the same time provided the opening for a diplomatic offensive.
This might very well be the leverage which Yerevan and Stepanakert
need to once and for all break the decade long dead lock in the
conflict by pointing to the inevitable solution of the conflict.
Stepanakert's right to self-determination, as envisaged in the Madrid
Protocols, must be enforced in order to bring this conflict to a
closure. For that, Stepanakert must be recognized as a legitimate
partner at the negotiation table and allowed back as they were in
the beginning of the negotiation process. The events of the past week
simply do not leave room for any other solution.
Vahagn AVEDIAN
Chief Editor, Armenica.org
05.09.12, 16:50
http://times.am/?l=en&p=12000
The Safarov affair has sailed up as a bizarre breach of international
agreements, where the rule of law can evidently collapse once it
crosses borders. Hungary insists that the extradition was carried out
according to international laws and that they had received assurances
from Azerbaijan.
Budapest also refutes any connections to the promised Azerbaijani
billion Euro purchase of Hungarian state bonds. Had it not been
for the extraordinary nature of the brutal killing - hacking a
"Partnership for Peace" colleague to death while he was sleeping -
the international community might have looked the other way. However,
it was impossible to do so.
Neither EU nor other major players have, yet, made any demands
towards the regime in Baku to uphold the law breached. They have
been some condemnation of the Azerbaijani President's pardoning,
but the emphasis has rather been on calls to Azerbaijan and Armenia
to restrain their statements so that the fragile situation in the
region is not destabilized any further. With other words, put a lid
on it till it blows over. It is up to Yerevan to prevent this from
happening. This means that Armenia should not waste efforts and energy
on reprimanding Hungary. Armenia neither wants to alienate Hungary
nor can Hungary reverse any of the happened events.
This whole incident could very much be the well-needed turning point
of the Karabakh conflict. That is if Yerevan plays its cards well. No
sensible individual could at this moment even hint on the alternative
of putting the Armenian populated Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani
rule, not when the sentiments of the Baku are this evident. Baku,
on the other hand, could no longer go to a negotiation table and
assert that they are sincere in guaranteeing the safety of Karabakh
Armenians and their equality as citizens within Azerbaijan.
Let it be said that the displayed sentiment by official Baku can
impossibly be that of the entire Azerbaijani society. The common
sensible person on the street must realize that an ax murderer,
convicted rightfully for his confessed crime, should not be freed,
promoted, celebrated and elevated to hero. Notwithstanding, this is
unfortunately the prevailing atmosphere in a totalitarian Azerbaijan,
where the regime has not much of tolerance towards its own (read
ethnic Azerbaijanis) dissidents, saved that of a rogue population,
who has fought a bitter war with the central government and demands
its right to self-determination. This intolerance has constantly been
pointed out by the Armenian side, but now Baku has staged it in an
undisputable manner.
So, the ball is in Yerevan's court. Reading the course of the events -
from the murder to the extradition and the pardoning and celebration
of Safarov - the international community cannot but agree that putting
Karabakh under Baku's rule is not an option. At least if they don't
strive for a rapid ethnic cleansing of Karabakh from its Armenian
population.
However, as always, the realpolitik always prevails. In a week or
two, EU and USA will try to slowly but surely abandon this whole
inconvenient affair for securing the delivery of the much needed gas
and oil from Azerbaijan.
It is no secret that Armenia has been on the defensive during the
past years, military as well as diplomatically. It was not only the
conquered military positions that were in defensive position, but with
increasing incomes from the Azeri oil and gas revenues, Armenia has
been outdistanced diplomatically by Azerbaijan on the international
arena as well. The energy resources have granted Azerbaijan everything
from a non-permanent sit in the UN Security Council to a victory in
the Eurovision Song Contest. Now, the Safarov affair has removed any
doubts about the real attitude of Baku towards the Armenian population
and at the same time provided the opening for a diplomatic offensive.
This might very well be the leverage which Yerevan and Stepanakert
need to once and for all break the decade long dead lock in the
conflict by pointing to the inevitable solution of the conflict.
Stepanakert's right to self-determination, as envisaged in the Madrid
Protocols, must be enforced in order to bring this conflict to a
closure. For that, Stepanakert must be recognized as a legitimate
partner at the negotiation table and allowed back as they were in
the beginning of the negotiation process. The events of the past week
simply do not leave room for any other solution.
Vahagn AVEDIAN
Chief Editor, Armenica.org
05.09.12, 16:50