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PARDONING OF AZERI AXE MURDERER RAISES TENSIONS IN THE CAUCASUS
Email Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk
Thursday 6 September 2012 18.34 BST
Case of army lieutenant who killed and all but decapitated an Armenian
soldier has inflamed public opinion
Official US criticism of abuses by the government of Azeri president
Ilham Aliyev is relatively muted. Photograph: Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty
Images The spectre of war in the Caucasus rose again this week
following the pardoning by Azerbaijan of a convicted axe murderer
who killed and all but decapitated an Armenian soldier while he
slept. The White House, Russia, the EU and the Organisation for
Security and Co-operation in Europe all moved to diplomatic battle
stations as the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, furiously warned:
"We don't want a war, but if we have to, we will fight and win."
The case of Ramil Safarov, an Azeri army lieutenant who was jailed
in Hungary in 2004 for the murder of Gurgen Margaryan during a Nato
Partnership for Peace course that they both attended, has inflamed
public opinion in Azerbaijan and Armenia. The two countries have a
history of hostilities that includes a war over the Nagorno-Karabakh
enclave that killed 30,000 people between 1988 and 1994. The dispute
remains unresolved and this summer there was a sharp escalation in
border skirmishes.
The alarm in Washington and Moscow at the latest confrontation is
rooted in political and strategic considerations.
Thanks to the efforts of former US vice-president Dick Cheney, among
others, Azerbaijan has become a major oil supplier to the west in
recent years. US and British companies including ExxonMobil and BP
have invested an estimated $35bn in its oil and natural gas fields
and the country's importance has grown during the turmoil engendered
elsewhere by the Arab spring.
Nato, meanwhile, uses Azeri airfields to resupply Afghanistan.
Azerbaijan's military spending, financed by oil sales, is expected
to reach $3.6bn this year.
Pro-western, pro-business Azerbaijan's location on the Caspian basin
has also made it a key player in the Obama administration's undeclared
war on Iran.
Official US criticism of long-standing civil, electoral and human
rights abuses by the government of President Ilham Aliyev is relatively
muted. In return for its discretion, Washington is said to be rewarded
with intelligence-sharing and other Iran-related favours.
Up to 20 million ethnic Azeris live in north-western Iran and some
Azeri politicians refer to the area as "South Azerbaijan". For CIA
schemers intent on destabilising the Tehran regime, the potential
for subterfuge is vast.
The Israel-Azerbaijan relationship is even more remarkable. The two
countries have steadily expanded military ties: Baku spent $1.6bn on
Israeli weapons in February.
Then in March Azerbaijan arrested 22 people allegedly involved
in an Iranian plot to assassinate American and Israeli diplomats,
and Aliyev claims Azerbaijan is neutral in the dispute over Iran's
nuclear programme, which Israel believes threatens its existence. But
Iran-Azerbaijan relations are in deep freeze amid a public war
of words.
Less wealthy Armenia also has strategic significance and powerful
backers. Russia is a major weapons supplier, maintains military bases
within reach of Armenia's border with Nato member Turkey, and oversees
the country's air defences. Russian military flights increased sharply
this year as Azeri-Armenian tensions rose, according to Interfax.
It was announced in June that Russia would double its personnel at its
Gyumri base, whose lease has been extended until 2044. Gyumri is home
to Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters.
Iran also takes Armenia's side in opposition to Azerbaijan - while
just to complicate matters further, so too does the influential
Armenian-American diaspora, which knows how to put pressure on the
White House.
Small surprise, then, that the feting of the axe murderer Safarov
when he returned to Baku, his subsequent promotion, the awarding
to him of eight years' back pay - and Armenia's furious reaction -
have caused ripples of alarm at the highest levels. Armenia broke off
diplomatic relations with hapless Hungary for letting him go, Barack
Obama expressed deep concern about it all, the Kremlin chastised both
Hungary and Azerbaijan, demonstrators took to the streets of Yerevan
and an Armenian opposition party demanded formal recognition of the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan claimed in turn that
Armenia's reaction was "hysterical" and that President Sargsyan had
secretly ordered the assassination of Safarov.
International diplomatic efforts to pull the two sides back from the
brink appear to have worked so far, but more by luck than judgment.
The Safarov affair is not over yet. And it is a sobering reminder
that the so-called "frozen conflicts" left over from the Cold War
can and will re-ignite with appalling speed if ignored for long enough.
In point of fact, the dispute has not been wholly ignored. The
so-called Minsk group of countries has been trying to resolve it for
years. In June, the US, Russian and French presidents issued a joint
statement calling for a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute. "Military force will not resolve the conflict and would
only prolong the suffering and hardships endured by the peoples of
the region for too long," they said. That is indubitably true. What
they did not admit is their own part in the problem.
From: Baghdasarian
Email Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk
Thursday 6 September 2012 18.34 BST
Case of army lieutenant who killed and all but decapitated an Armenian
soldier has inflamed public opinion
Official US criticism of abuses by the government of Azeri president
Ilham Aliyev is relatively muted. Photograph: Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty
Images The spectre of war in the Caucasus rose again this week
following the pardoning by Azerbaijan of a convicted axe murderer
who killed and all but decapitated an Armenian soldier while he
slept. The White House, Russia, the EU and the Organisation for
Security and Co-operation in Europe all moved to diplomatic battle
stations as the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, furiously warned:
"We don't want a war, but if we have to, we will fight and win."
The case of Ramil Safarov, an Azeri army lieutenant who was jailed
in Hungary in 2004 for the murder of Gurgen Margaryan during a Nato
Partnership for Peace course that they both attended, has inflamed
public opinion in Azerbaijan and Armenia. The two countries have a
history of hostilities that includes a war over the Nagorno-Karabakh
enclave that killed 30,000 people between 1988 and 1994. The dispute
remains unresolved and this summer there was a sharp escalation in
border skirmishes.
The alarm in Washington and Moscow at the latest confrontation is
rooted in political and strategic considerations.
Thanks to the efforts of former US vice-president Dick Cheney, among
others, Azerbaijan has become a major oil supplier to the west in
recent years. US and British companies including ExxonMobil and BP
have invested an estimated $35bn in its oil and natural gas fields
and the country's importance has grown during the turmoil engendered
elsewhere by the Arab spring.
Nato, meanwhile, uses Azeri airfields to resupply Afghanistan.
Azerbaijan's military spending, financed by oil sales, is expected
to reach $3.6bn this year.
Pro-western, pro-business Azerbaijan's location on the Caspian basin
has also made it a key player in the Obama administration's undeclared
war on Iran.
Official US criticism of long-standing civil, electoral and human
rights abuses by the government of President Ilham Aliyev is relatively
muted. In return for its discretion, Washington is said to be rewarded
with intelligence-sharing and other Iran-related favours.
Up to 20 million ethnic Azeris live in north-western Iran and some
Azeri politicians refer to the area as "South Azerbaijan". For CIA
schemers intent on destabilising the Tehran regime, the potential
for subterfuge is vast.
The Israel-Azerbaijan relationship is even more remarkable. The two
countries have steadily expanded military ties: Baku spent $1.6bn on
Israeli weapons in February.
Then in March Azerbaijan arrested 22 people allegedly involved
in an Iranian plot to assassinate American and Israeli diplomats,
and Aliyev claims Azerbaijan is neutral in the dispute over Iran's
nuclear programme, which Israel believes threatens its existence. But
Iran-Azerbaijan relations are in deep freeze amid a public war
of words.
Less wealthy Armenia also has strategic significance and powerful
backers. Russia is a major weapons supplier, maintains military bases
within reach of Armenia's border with Nato member Turkey, and oversees
the country's air defences. Russian military flights increased sharply
this year as Azeri-Armenian tensions rose, according to Interfax.
It was announced in June that Russia would double its personnel at its
Gyumri base, whose lease has been extended until 2044. Gyumri is home
to Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters.
Iran also takes Armenia's side in opposition to Azerbaijan - while
just to complicate matters further, so too does the influential
Armenian-American diaspora, which knows how to put pressure on the
White House.
Small surprise, then, that the feting of the axe murderer Safarov
when he returned to Baku, his subsequent promotion, the awarding
to him of eight years' back pay - and Armenia's furious reaction -
have caused ripples of alarm at the highest levels. Armenia broke off
diplomatic relations with hapless Hungary for letting him go, Barack
Obama expressed deep concern about it all, the Kremlin chastised both
Hungary and Azerbaijan, demonstrators took to the streets of Yerevan
and an Armenian opposition party demanded formal recognition of the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan claimed in turn that
Armenia's reaction was "hysterical" and that President Sargsyan had
secretly ordered the assassination of Safarov.
International diplomatic efforts to pull the two sides back from the
brink appear to have worked so far, but more by luck than judgment.
The Safarov affair is not over yet. And it is a sobering reminder
that the so-called "frozen conflicts" left over from the Cold War
can and will re-ignite with appalling speed if ignored for long enough.
In point of fact, the dispute has not been wholly ignored. The
so-called Minsk group of countries has been trying to resolve it for
years. In June, the US, Russian and French presidents issued a joint
statement calling for a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute. "Military force will not resolve the conflict and would
only prolong the suffering and hardships endured by the peoples of
the region for too long," they said. That is indubitably true. What
they did not admit is their own part in the problem.
From: Baghdasarian