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Budapest Times, Hungary
Sept 9 2012
The Ramil Safarov case and Orbán's bumpy ride east
Not uncommon for Hungary to be tripped up in path it chooses to take
Posted on 09 September 2012, Author: Péter Marton
With the Ramil Safarov affair, the Orient Express of Prime Minister
Viktor Orbán's determined `eastern opening' has seemingly derailed.
This is not the first time - and in fact derailment may not be the
case. But it is certainly a rollercoaster ride and the destination is
anything but sure or well defined. The morals of the story have to be
concluded with this in mind.
Started with hopes high
The government of Mr. Orbán came to power in 2010 with opportunities
on the world stage that are exceptional for a small country. In spring
2011, Hungary took over the Presidency of the European Union. At the
same time it was in competition for a two-year non-permanent
membership of the United Nations Security Council. Foreign Minister
János Martonyi proudly talked of his government's policy of `global
opening'.
Mr. Orbán made it clear that the priority behind this was the
economy. When Hungary had several major agreements signed with China
in May this year, he rhetorically asked: `Why should we stand on one
foot, when we have two feet?' He added that standing on two feet is
necessary because `strong winds are blowing in the world economy'. As
many may recall, on an earlier occasion he called these `Eastern'
winds.
Slapping faces, biting hands
What makes this a problematic sell internationally is Mr. Orbán's
often strong criticism of Western institutions, his uncertain
intentions about securing International Monetary Fund funding to
safely refinance state debt, and his willingness to make unusual
gestures to partners outside the West.
In other words, who sows the wind, sometimes reaps the whirlwind. Mr.
Orbán opined in a meeting with Egypt's then-president Hosni Mubarak on
24 January 2011 that `Central Europeans somehow find a common voice
more easily with Arabs', only to see the events beginning the next day
sweep his partner from power.
In the summer of 2011 his government made sure Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao would not face distractive protests by Tibetan exiles during a
visit to Budapest, stating: `Freedom of expression is OK, scandals or
trouble-making is not.'
Hungary often falling short
In fact the previous Hungarian governments have not found it easier to
strike an ideal compromise between promoting good relations with China
and symbolically supporting human rights. Yet, as results from the
Chinese engagement lagged behind wildly inflated expectations, Mr.
Orbán's China policy drew continued criticism from the opposition.
Then, in the autumn, Hungary lost the bid to become a non-permanent
member of the UN Security Council to a country that, as the Budapest
rumour mill had it, handed out golden Rolex watches to win over
developing-country votes to this end: Azerbaijan.
Eggs-tradition on Hungary's face
Fast forward to 31 August 2012. Hungary extradited Ramil Safarov, the
convicted murderer of Armenian officer Gurgen Margaryan, to Azerbaijan
upon a faxed statement from the latter's deputy minister of justice
that sentenced persons who are transferred to the Caucasian state do
as a matter of general practice serve the remainder of their sentences
without conversion or having to go through any new judicial procedure.
The Azeri side kept its word - and Azeri President Ilham Aliyev
swiftly pardoned the killer. He then promoted Safarov to the rank of
major in the Azeri army, and in no time the masses were celebrating
his return home on the streets. The elated deputy chairman of the
presidential New Azerbaijan Party, Ali Akhmedov, declared that now
`Ramil was released, next is the liberation of Karabakh', referring to
the long-simmering Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia and the
region that Safarov himself hails from.
Playing connect the dots
Hungary is left looking either hopelessly naďve or blatantly cynical
or a combination of the two as a result. Rightly or wrongly, dots are
being connected and the case is linked in the press to now seemingly
lost hopes of an issuance of sovereign Hungarian government bonds
either in Turkey or in Azerbaijan, as well as to long-existing plans
for energy supplies through and from the Caucasus, be it in the form
of liquefied natural gas or conventional gas exports via any of the
pipelines that may eventually be built in the region.
The extradition was no small issue for Azerbaijan. According to a
member of the national security committee of the Azeri parliament,
they opened an embassy in Budapest in order to expedite Safarov's
release in the first place. The already quoted Ali Akhmedov of the
Azeri presidential party remembers what happened to Safarov in this
way: `Both Karabakh and Ramil became victims of saboteurs.'
Thus, with strategic Hungarian interests in mind, it may indeed have
been necessary to do something about Safarov. Only more considerately.
Mr. Orbán is trying to navigate uncharted terrain in the midst of
various constraints. The Safarov case shows that escaping one may mean
bumping right into another. From here on it may be better to get off
the Orient Express and simply, and humbly, walk, with two feet on the
ground.
- Péter Marton is a lecturer in International Relations and
Comparative Foreign Policy at Corvinus University.
http://www.budapesttimes.hu/2012/09/09/the-ramil-safarov-case-and-orbans-bumpy-ride-east/
Sept 9 2012
The Ramil Safarov case and Orbán's bumpy ride east
Not uncommon for Hungary to be tripped up in path it chooses to take
Posted on 09 September 2012, Author: Péter Marton
With the Ramil Safarov affair, the Orient Express of Prime Minister
Viktor Orbán's determined `eastern opening' has seemingly derailed.
This is not the first time - and in fact derailment may not be the
case. But it is certainly a rollercoaster ride and the destination is
anything but sure or well defined. The morals of the story have to be
concluded with this in mind.
Started with hopes high
The government of Mr. Orbán came to power in 2010 with opportunities
on the world stage that are exceptional for a small country. In spring
2011, Hungary took over the Presidency of the European Union. At the
same time it was in competition for a two-year non-permanent
membership of the United Nations Security Council. Foreign Minister
János Martonyi proudly talked of his government's policy of `global
opening'.
Mr. Orbán made it clear that the priority behind this was the
economy. When Hungary had several major agreements signed with China
in May this year, he rhetorically asked: `Why should we stand on one
foot, when we have two feet?' He added that standing on two feet is
necessary because `strong winds are blowing in the world economy'. As
many may recall, on an earlier occasion he called these `Eastern'
winds.
Slapping faces, biting hands
What makes this a problematic sell internationally is Mr. Orbán's
often strong criticism of Western institutions, his uncertain
intentions about securing International Monetary Fund funding to
safely refinance state debt, and his willingness to make unusual
gestures to partners outside the West.
In other words, who sows the wind, sometimes reaps the whirlwind. Mr.
Orbán opined in a meeting with Egypt's then-president Hosni Mubarak on
24 January 2011 that `Central Europeans somehow find a common voice
more easily with Arabs', only to see the events beginning the next day
sweep his partner from power.
In the summer of 2011 his government made sure Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao would not face distractive protests by Tibetan exiles during a
visit to Budapest, stating: `Freedom of expression is OK, scandals or
trouble-making is not.'
Hungary often falling short
In fact the previous Hungarian governments have not found it easier to
strike an ideal compromise between promoting good relations with China
and symbolically supporting human rights. Yet, as results from the
Chinese engagement lagged behind wildly inflated expectations, Mr.
Orbán's China policy drew continued criticism from the opposition.
Then, in the autumn, Hungary lost the bid to become a non-permanent
member of the UN Security Council to a country that, as the Budapest
rumour mill had it, handed out golden Rolex watches to win over
developing-country votes to this end: Azerbaijan.
Eggs-tradition on Hungary's face
Fast forward to 31 August 2012. Hungary extradited Ramil Safarov, the
convicted murderer of Armenian officer Gurgen Margaryan, to Azerbaijan
upon a faxed statement from the latter's deputy minister of justice
that sentenced persons who are transferred to the Caucasian state do
as a matter of general practice serve the remainder of their sentences
without conversion or having to go through any new judicial procedure.
The Azeri side kept its word - and Azeri President Ilham Aliyev
swiftly pardoned the killer. He then promoted Safarov to the rank of
major in the Azeri army, and in no time the masses were celebrating
his return home on the streets. The elated deputy chairman of the
presidential New Azerbaijan Party, Ali Akhmedov, declared that now
`Ramil was released, next is the liberation of Karabakh', referring to
the long-simmering Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia and the
region that Safarov himself hails from.
Playing connect the dots
Hungary is left looking either hopelessly naďve or blatantly cynical
or a combination of the two as a result. Rightly or wrongly, dots are
being connected and the case is linked in the press to now seemingly
lost hopes of an issuance of sovereign Hungarian government bonds
either in Turkey or in Azerbaijan, as well as to long-existing plans
for energy supplies through and from the Caucasus, be it in the form
of liquefied natural gas or conventional gas exports via any of the
pipelines that may eventually be built in the region.
The extradition was no small issue for Azerbaijan. According to a
member of the national security committee of the Azeri parliament,
they opened an embassy in Budapest in order to expedite Safarov's
release in the first place. The already quoted Ali Akhmedov of the
Azeri presidential party remembers what happened to Safarov in this
way: `Both Karabakh and Ramil became victims of saboteurs.'
Thus, with strategic Hungarian interests in mind, it may indeed have
been necessary to do something about Safarov. Only more considerately.
Mr. Orbán is trying to navigate uncharted terrain in the midst of
various constraints. The Safarov case shows that escaping one may mean
bumping right into another. From here on it may be better to get off
the Orient Express and simply, and humbly, walk, with two feet on the
ground.
- Péter Marton is a lecturer in International Relations and
Comparative Foreign Policy at Corvinus University.
http://www.budapesttimes.hu/2012/09/09/the-ramil-safarov-case-and-orbans-bumpy-ride-east/