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THE HUNGARIAN GOVERNMENT WAS EXTREMELY NAIVE TO BELIEVE THAT AZERBAIJAN WOULD NOT PARDON SAFAROV.MICHAEL KAMBECK
http://1in.am/eng/interviewandpanel_interviews_2062.html
10:45 | 2012-09-12 | Interview & Panels | Interviews |
"1in.am News and Analyses" has conducted an interview with EuFoA's
(European friends of Armenia) Secretary General, Dr. Michael Kambeck.
The full interview is presented below.
Dr. Kambeck, what was your first reaction when you heard about
RamilSafarov's extradition to Azerbaijan?
We were of course shocked, but I must tell you that we immediately
started working on the case. We had the obligation to get this
information out here, to the EU institutions and to explain the
gravity and the background of this case to everyone, so the people
here take the right decisions and react in a proper manner. This kept
us busy for very long. We met pretty much with everyone who has
influence on this issue here in Brussels and abroad.And I must say
that we received a very strong wave of sympathy, people understood the
case, they also felt fooled by Azerbaijan and they felt that
Azerbaijan has grossly violated European values. It also has been
cheating an EU member state and has been exercising state-promoted
xenophobia against Armenia. That is why this long list of
condemnations came from the EU institutions.
How would you evaluate Minsk group co-chairing countries' official
statement about the issue?
Quite frankly, if you are the mediator, you need to be careful. So I
understand that they didn't go very far.But when I read the Minsk
group statement compared to what they can be expected to say, they
have actually made a very strong and a very clear statement and I
don't think it is the last word. I am sure that internally they were
even much stronger than they publicly could be.
Could you compare the Minsk group co-chairing countries'statement with
that of EU? Did they point to different things?
Look, we must understand the EU statement as the very first, initial
response from a gigantic machinery with hundreds of advisers and
everyone needs to be heard, and that's how these kind of soft
statements come out. That's why we even have in there the call upon
both sides, which is ridiculous in this case. We made this very clear
when we were talking to the institutions, and quite frankly,we were
told that the EU's internal statements to Azerbaijan were much
stronger than this public statement, which was only just the very
first reaction. We now had a debate during this so called Gymnich
Meeting, which is the informal meeting of the EU foreign ministers,
and we will have the UrgencyResolution of the European Parliament this
week. We have seen very strong reactions from the Council of Europe;
we have seen very strong reactions from the European Parliament. I
think Europe's reaction as a whole was very strong and shows the
solidarity.
How do you think this will affect the NKR conflict?
It pretty much depends also on Armenia's activities now. Quite
frankly, Azerbaijan of course hopes that this provocation will be met
from Armenia's side with counter-provocation. And this would give them
what they have been looking for years, namely a good reason to stop
the Minsk group process and it will also give them the means to reduce
the worldwide solidarity which now exists for Armenia. I hope this
will not be the trap that Armenia steps into. I hope that Armenia
keeps being a very good chess player and thinks about its long-term
strategic goals. If we do that then this entire crisis will lead to
only one thing, namely that the last person on earth, who still has
not noticed by now, knows what kind of regime we have in Baku, with
whom Armenia has to negotiate for peace. So I think that the EU has
learnt a lot from this. Armenia now has the upper hand. Armenia has
both the solidarity and sits in the good corner. Azerbaijan sits in
the bad corner. That is very visible. The rest depends now on our own
reaction. We should not play by the rules of Aliyevand then I think
that the bottom line outcome of this for Armenia is positive, though
only strategically. Emotionally it can never be positive because it is
a tragic scandal.
How would you explain the Azerbaijani move in this case? Don't you
think that Aliyev could understand that pardoning Safarov won't be
favorable for his own country only?
Of Course, but Aliyev has done so many things that strategically make
absolutely no sense. He has been making statements in front of the
international journalists which were highly aggressive towards
Armenia. He is inviting the whole world to come to Baku and to see the
Eurovision song contest and at the same time he is evicting thousands
of people from their homes without financial compensation and puts
journalists into jails. Then he was surprised about the whole world
and that they see all these problems of Azerbaijan and report about
them negatively. Quite frankly, if you are looking for the strategy in
Ilham Aliyev's mind, you are looking for the wrong thing, because he
is not acting strategically in this sense. He acts more like a king
who sits on his throne and thinks he can do whatever he wants. He acts
much more like Gadhafi than someone who acts strategically. That's the
reason why Armenia needs the international community to get this
country back to a normal track, because if Aliyev continues as he is
right now, he will just cause damage to both Azerbaijan and Armenia,
and to the whole region, to everyone.This is in nobody's interest. So
right now we need to be really clever in our reactions.
Do you think this issue will have any impact on the upcoming
presidential elections in Azerbaijan?
Which presidential elections in Azerbaijan? You mean that show that
they want to do in 2013? It is not going to have any effect because
Aliyev will anyway use his state machinery and in that sense it will
have absolutely no effect. Azerbaijan currently has no choice and no
real elections.
What should Armenia do in this situation? How should Armenia act
towards European Union and Azerbaijan?
The key thing is that Armenia shouldn't play according to Aliyev's
wish and should not make any moves which Aliyev can then use to kill
the current solidarity and to kill the Minsk Group process. That is
exactly what he is waiting for. He now wants a provocation from
Armenia. If Armenia continues a more clever strategy, it will in the
long run pay out. Certainly we have nothing to gain from playing along
the rules of Aliyev. Towards Europe, I think it is the same thing
somehow. If we now make big demands to Hungary before they might
reestablish relations,if we now overstretch and overdo it, we may also
quickly lose the solidarity that we have just gained. So I think here
again we need to be clear: the message has been sent, the message has
been understood by everyone and now Armenia just has to play a
long-term game. I can only say that the Hungarian government was
extremely naïve to the belief that Azerbaijan would not pardon
Safarov. I think we need to work behind the scenes with Hungary, maybe
with Swiss mediation and also with non-state actors who can be
helpful,as the current situation between Armenia and Hungary is an
anomaly. We have always had very good ties, there is a very important
Armenian diaspora in Hungary, some of the state founders of Hungary
were Armenians... so the link between those two Christiancountries is
very strong. Hungary also needs Armenia in some ways, because Hungary
is looking for a bridge between Europe and the East and Armenia can be
very valuable for this. But I think that Armenia needs Hungary more.
We cannot have EU visa facilitation without the agreement of Hungary,
we cannot have the EU Association Agreement without Hungary, all these
decisions are unanimous in the EU and we will need the approval of
Hungary. I am not saying that Hungary plans to block all such
decisions, but if Armenia now works behind the scenes to get closer
again with Hungary so that one day we can have normal relations again,
I think this is the right thing to do.
http://1in.am/eng/interviewandpanel_interviews_2062.html
10:45 | 2012-09-12 | Interview & Panels | Interviews |
"1in.am News and Analyses" has conducted an interview with EuFoA's
(European friends of Armenia) Secretary General, Dr. Michael Kambeck.
The full interview is presented below.
Dr. Kambeck, what was your first reaction when you heard about
RamilSafarov's extradition to Azerbaijan?
We were of course shocked, but I must tell you that we immediately
started working on the case. We had the obligation to get this
information out here, to the EU institutions and to explain the
gravity and the background of this case to everyone, so the people
here take the right decisions and react in a proper manner. This kept
us busy for very long. We met pretty much with everyone who has
influence on this issue here in Brussels and abroad.And I must say
that we received a very strong wave of sympathy, people understood the
case, they also felt fooled by Azerbaijan and they felt that
Azerbaijan has grossly violated European values. It also has been
cheating an EU member state and has been exercising state-promoted
xenophobia against Armenia. That is why this long list of
condemnations came from the EU institutions.
How would you evaluate Minsk group co-chairing countries' official
statement about the issue?
Quite frankly, if you are the mediator, you need to be careful. So I
understand that they didn't go very far.But when I read the Minsk
group statement compared to what they can be expected to say, they
have actually made a very strong and a very clear statement and I
don't think it is the last word. I am sure that internally they were
even much stronger than they publicly could be.
Could you compare the Minsk group co-chairing countries'statement with
that of EU? Did they point to different things?
Look, we must understand the EU statement as the very first, initial
response from a gigantic machinery with hundreds of advisers and
everyone needs to be heard, and that's how these kind of soft
statements come out. That's why we even have in there the call upon
both sides, which is ridiculous in this case. We made this very clear
when we were talking to the institutions, and quite frankly,we were
told that the EU's internal statements to Azerbaijan were much
stronger than this public statement, which was only just the very
first reaction. We now had a debate during this so called Gymnich
Meeting, which is the informal meeting of the EU foreign ministers,
and we will have the UrgencyResolution of the European Parliament this
week. We have seen very strong reactions from the Council of Europe;
we have seen very strong reactions from the European Parliament. I
think Europe's reaction as a whole was very strong and shows the
solidarity.
How do you think this will affect the NKR conflict?
It pretty much depends also on Armenia's activities now. Quite
frankly, Azerbaijan of course hopes that this provocation will be met
from Armenia's side with counter-provocation. And this would give them
what they have been looking for years, namely a good reason to stop
the Minsk group process and it will also give them the means to reduce
the worldwide solidarity which now exists for Armenia. I hope this
will not be the trap that Armenia steps into. I hope that Armenia
keeps being a very good chess player and thinks about its long-term
strategic goals. If we do that then this entire crisis will lead to
only one thing, namely that the last person on earth, who still has
not noticed by now, knows what kind of regime we have in Baku, with
whom Armenia has to negotiate for peace. So I think that the EU has
learnt a lot from this. Armenia now has the upper hand. Armenia has
both the solidarity and sits in the good corner. Azerbaijan sits in
the bad corner. That is very visible. The rest depends now on our own
reaction. We should not play by the rules of Aliyevand then I think
that the bottom line outcome of this for Armenia is positive, though
only strategically. Emotionally it can never be positive because it is
a tragic scandal.
How would you explain the Azerbaijani move in this case? Don't you
think that Aliyev could understand that pardoning Safarov won't be
favorable for his own country only?
Of Course, but Aliyev has done so many things that strategically make
absolutely no sense. He has been making statements in front of the
international journalists which were highly aggressive towards
Armenia. He is inviting the whole world to come to Baku and to see the
Eurovision song contest and at the same time he is evicting thousands
of people from their homes without financial compensation and puts
journalists into jails. Then he was surprised about the whole world
and that they see all these problems of Azerbaijan and report about
them negatively. Quite frankly, if you are looking for the strategy in
Ilham Aliyev's mind, you are looking for the wrong thing, because he
is not acting strategically in this sense. He acts more like a king
who sits on his throne and thinks he can do whatever he wants. He acts
much more like Gadhafi than someone who acts strategically. That's the
reason why Armenia needs the international community to get this
country back to a normal track, because if Aliyev continues as he is
right now, he will just cause damage to both Azerbaijan and Armenia,
and to the whole region, to everyone.This is in nobody's interest. So
right now we need to be really clever in our reactions.
Do you think this issue will have any impact on the upcoming
presidential elections in Azerbaijan?
Which presidential elections in Azerbaijan? You mean that show that
they want to do in 2013? It is not going to have any effect because
Aliyev will anyway use his state machinery and in that sense it will
have absolutely no effect. Azerbaijan currently has no choice and no
real elections.
What should Armenia do in this situation? How should Armenia act
towards European Union and Azerbaijan?
The key thing is that Armenia shouldn't play according to Aliyev's
wish and should not make any moves which Aliyev can then use to kill
the current solidarity and to kill the Minsk Group process. That is
exactly what he is waiting for. He now wants a provocation from
Armenia. If Armenia continues a more clever strategy, it will in the
long run pay out. Certainly we have nothing to gain from playing along
the rules of Aliyev. Towards Europe, I think it is the same thing
somehow. If we now make big demands to Hungary before they might
reestablish relations,if we now overstretch and overdo it, we may also
quickly lose the solidarity that we have just gained. So I think here
again we need to be clear: the message has been sent, the message has
been understood by everyone and now Armenia just has to play a
long-term game. I can only say that the Hungarian government was
extremely naïve to the belief that Azerbaijan would not pardon
Safarov. I think we need to work behind the scenes with Hungary, maybe
with Swiss mediation and also with non-state actors who can be
helpful,as the current situation between Armenia and Hungary is an
anomaly. We have always had very good ties, there is a very important
Armenian diaspora in Hungary, some of the state founders of Hungary
were Armenians... so the link between those two Christiancountries is
very strong. Hungary also needs Armenia in some ways, because Hungary
is looking for a bridge between Europe and the East and Armenia can be
very valuable for this. But I think that Armenia needs Hungary more.
We cannot have EU visa facilitation without the agreement of Hungary,
we cannot have the EU Association Agreement without Hungary, all these
decisions are unanimous in the EU and we will need the approval of
Hungary. I am not saying that Hungary plans to block all such
decisions, but if Armenia now works behind the scenes to get closer
again with Hungary so that one day we can have normal relations again,
I think this is the right thing to do.