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PARTNERSHIPS FOR PEACE: THE LIONISATION OF A MURDERER THROWS THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT BACK INTO FOCUS.
European Voice
Sept 13 2012
By Andrew Gardner - 13.09.2012 / 04:35 CET
If you were president of a country aspiring to build closer ties
with the EU, would you lobby the court of an EU country to lighten
the sentence on one of your citizens for a savage murder? And, having
secured his repatriation after eight years, would you break a promise
to an increasingly important customer by pardoning the murderer?
For Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliev, the answer is 'Yes'. On
31 August, Hungary returned Ramil Safarov, an army lieutenant, to
Azerbaijan, on the understanding that he would serve at least 25 years
for murdering an Armenian soldier with an axe at a NATO-sponsored
Partnership for Peace event in Budapest in 2004. Instead, he was not
just pardoned, but given eight years' back-pay, promotion and a free
flat - all this despite imminent visits by a European commissioner
and NATO's secretary-general.
The European commissioner for energy, Gunther Oettinger, went ahead
with his visit (1-2 September) and made no public comment. However, the
Safarov affair has brought more attention to the supposedly 'frozen'
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan - over Nagorno-Karabakh -
than it has received in years.
The three members of the Minsk Group created by the Organisation and
Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), charged since 1994 with
resolving the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, expressed "deep concern" and
condemned "any attempts to glorify the crime". On Friday (6 September),
NATO's secretary-general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, used similar language,
saying that crime "should not be glorified".
The EU country at the centre of the affair, Hungary, has officially
protested against the pardon. But Hungary has also found itself under
examination, particularly Prime Minister Victor Orban, who reportedly
made the decision himself. Hungarian diplomats say that repatriation
of prisoners is common practice, and that EU partners understand that.
But the argument seems to have cut less ice with the US and Russia.
The US publicly stated that it was asking Hungary for an
"explanation". Russia went further, saying: "These actions of the
Azeri as well as Hungarian authorities contradict internationally
brokered efforts.".
Hungary denies any suggestion that it traded Safarov for financial
support. But, if truly enraged by Aliev's conduct, Hungary could choose
to raise the issue's profile within the EU. So far, there is no hint
that it is doing so. There have been ripples in Brussels - the Council
of Ministers' working party on eastern Europe and central Asia (Coest)
touched on the topic last week, briefly - but the EU's statement,
on 3 September, was conveyed in notably milder terms than the Minsk
Group's and NATO's, calling on both countries "to exercise restraint".
Several observers suggest that for the EU the affair may now fizzle
out. The EU's growing energy ties with Azerbaijan are a factor,
but one member-state diplomat also privately played down the affair
as driven by election posturing on both sides: Azerbaijan will hold
presidential elections in October 2013; Armenia will have presidential
elections earlier, in February. "The problem with that is there is
no election in Azerbaijan," says Hrant Kostanyan of the Centre for
European Policy Studies, pointing to criticism of the 2008 elections,
when Aliev officially gained 87% of the vote.
Increasing tension
Whether the affair becomes more than a footnote may, though,
depend on what happens on the ground. In May, the Commission noted
"increasing tension" on the border. In June, ten people were killed
in border crossfire. Analysts say the security situation is delicate
and worsening. Sabine Freizer of the International Crisis Group says
there is a "strong possibility of a war", while Kostyanan says that
"it is in no one's interest to have a war, but the way that things
are developing could lead to that".
Both countries are increasing defence spending, Azerbaijan in
particular. It doubled its purchases last year, the fastest increase
in the world. Azerbaijan has the fancy weaponry, but may not know
how to use it, says Freizer. Armenia may calculate that if war is
inevitable, better to fight sooner rather than later.
The possibility of the arms race developing its own logic underscores
the riskiness of Aliev's decision to turn Safarov into a hero. But,
Freizer says, Aliev is showing that Azerbaijan is serious in
wanting Nagorno-Karabakh back and believes the affair will prompt
the international community to put more pressure on Armenia. So,
perhaps in this case, all publicity is good publicity? "Yes," she says.
Thomas de Waal of the Carnegie Endowment believes diplomatic efforts
need to be stepped up. Kostanyan argues that the EU should apply the
'more for more' - and 'less for less' - principle underpinning its
neighbourhood policy by paring back financial support for Azerbaijan.
Freizer says that the EU has left Nagorno-Karabakh off the agenda of
its Eastern Partnership, and that it now needs to be brought in. But
she also argues that the EU should replace France in the Minsk Group.
So far, though, there is "very little buy-in" for that idea. The
EU's special representative for the south Caucasus, Philippe Lefort,
a former French diplomat, has reiterated that the EU is not looking
to join the Group. But if the situation worsens, he may find that
position tested.
http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/partnerships-for-peace/75125.aspx
European Voice
Sept 13 2012
By Andrew Gardner - 13.09.2012 / 04:35 CET
If you were president of a country aspiring to build closer ties
with the EU, would you lobby the court of an EU country to lighten
the sentence on one of your citizens for a savage murder? And, having
secured his repatriation after eight years, would you break a promise
to an increasingly important customer by pardoning the murderer?
For Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliev, the answer is 'Yes'. On
31 August, Hungary returned Ramil Safarov, an army lieutenant, to
Azerbaijan, on the understanding that he would serve at least 25 years
for murdering an Armenian soldier with an axe at a NATO-sponsored
Partnership for Peace event in Budapest in 2004. Instead, he was not
just pardoned, but given eight years' back-pay, promotion and a free
flat - all this despite imminent visits by a European commissioner
and NATO's secretary-general.
The European commissioner for energy, Gunther Oettinger, went ahead
with his visit (1-2 September) and made no public comment. However, the
Safarov affair has brought more attention to the supposedly 'frozen'
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan - over Nagorno-Karabakh -
than it has received in years.
The three members of the Minsk Group created by the Organisation and
Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), charged since 1994 with
resolving the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, expressed "deep concern" and
condemned "any attempts to glorify the crime". On Friday (6 September),
NATO's secretary-general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, used similar language,
saying that crime "should not be glorified".
The EU country at the centre of the affair, Hungary, has officially
protested against the pardon. But Hungary has also found itself under
examination, particularly Prime Minister Victor Orban, who reportedly
made the decision himself. Hungarian diplomats say that repatriation
of prisoners is common practice, and that EU partners understand that.
But the argument seems to have cut less ice with the US and Russia.
The US publicly stated that it was asking Hungary for an
"explanation". Russia went further, saying: "These actions of the
Azeri as well as Hungarian authorities contradict internationally
brokered efforts.".
Hungary denies any suggestion that it traded Safarov for financial
support. But, if truly enraged by Aliev's conduct, Hungary could choose
to raise the issue's profile within the EU. So far, there is no hint
that it is doing so. There have been ripples in Brussels - the Council
of Ministers' working party on eastern Europe and central Asia (Coest)
touched on the topic last week, briefly - but the EU's statement,
on 3 September, was conveyed in notably milder terms than the Minsk
Group's and NATO's, calling on both countries "to exercise restraint".
Several observers suggest that for the EU the affair may now fizzle
out. The EU's growing energy ties with Azerbaijan are a factor,
but one member-state diplomat also privately played down the affair
as driven by election posturing on both sides: Azerbaijan will hold
presidential elections in October 2013; Armenia will have presidential
elections earlier, in February. "The problem with that is there is
no election in Azerbaijan," says Hrant Kostanyan of the Centre for
European Policy Studies, pointing to criticism of the 2008 elections,
when Aliev officially gained 87% of the vote.
Increasing tension
Whether the affair becomes more than a footnote may, though,
depend on what happens on the ground. In May, the Commission noted
"increasing tension" on the border. In June, ten people were killed
in border crossfire. Analysts say the security situation is delicate
and worsening. Sabine Freizer of the International Crisis Group says
there is a "strong possibility of a war", while Kostyanan says that
"it is in no one's interest to have a war, but the way that things
are developing could lead to that".
Both countries are increasing defence spending, Azerbaijan in
particular. It doubled its purchases last year, the fastest increase
in the world. Azerbaijan has the fancy weaponry, but may not know
how to use it, says Freizer. Armenia may calculate that if war is
inevitable, better to fight sooner rather than later.
The possibility of the arms race developing its own logic underscores
the riskiness of Aliev's decision to turn Safarov into a hero. But,
Freizer says, Aliev is showing that Azerbaijan is serious in
wanting Nagorno-Karabakh back and believes the affair will prompt
the international community to put more pressure on Armenia. So,
perhaps in this case, all publicity is good publicity? "Yes," she says.
Thomas de Waal of the Carnegie Endowment believes diplomatic efforts
need to be stepped up. Kostanyan argues that the EU should apply the
'more for more' - and 'less for less' - principle underpinning its
neighbourhood policy by paring back financial support for Azerbaijan.
Freizer says that the EU has left Nagorno-Karabakh off the agenda of
its Eastern Partnership, and that it now needs to be brought in. But
she also argues that the EU should replace France in the Minsk Group.
So far, though, there is "very little buy-in" for that idea. The
EU's special representative for the south Caucasus, Philippe Lefort,
a former French diplomat, has reiterated that the EU is not looking
to join the Group. But if the situation worsens, he may find that
position tested.
http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/partnerships-for-peace/75125.aspx