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Iran Attack Could Spark Caucasus War And Economic Trouble

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  • Iran Attack Could Spark Caucasus War And Economic Trouble

    IRAN ATTACK COULD SPARK CAUCASUS WAR AND ECONOMIC TROUBLE

    Antiwar.com
    Sept 13 2012

    Russia's Kavkaz-2012 strategic military training exercise later this
    month in the North Caucasus region may portend economic problems
    for the West. This is because the exercise is strategically linked
    to Russian expectations that Iran will be destabilized by the end of
    this year. If Iran is destabilized, Russia will uphold its obligations
    to Armenia under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

    Russia could cut a military corridor through the center of Georgia,
    taking control of all oil and gas lines leading westward from the
    rich fields of the Caspian Sea. If this is combined with fighting in
    the Persian Gulf, energy prices may spike.

    While some Russian training exercises have preceded major combat
    operations (Chechnya 1999, Georgia 2008), they are routinely conducted
    in order to test ongoing reforms. Kavkaz-2012 is the first major
    exercise to be held in Russia's Southern Military District since
    December 2010, when Russia introduced fundamental changes to its
    Ministry of Defense and joint strategic commands. Georgian officials
    are protesting that the exercise is intended to influence their
    parliamentary elections on Oct. 1. Less than a month after Kavkaz-2008,
    Russian troops fought a five-day war in Georgia. Russia recognized
    the independence of two Georgian breakaway regions, Abkhazia and
    South Ossetia, immediately after that August 2008 war.

    Russian officials insist that Kavkaz-2012 is a routine exercise,
    unrelated to events in other countries. They emphasize that the
    exercise will occur entirely on Russian territory and that they
    deliberately excluded units from Russian military bases in South
    Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Armenia. Armenia is a member of the CSTO along
    with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. In
    Armenia, from Sept. 3-8, the CSTO will hold its own Rapid Reaction
    exercise dubbed "Interaction-2012."

    According to Col.-Gen. Alexander Postnikov, deputy chief of the
    General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Interaction-2012 is
    entirely separate from Kavkaz-2012, despite the fact that they are
    being held barely a week apart on opposite sides of Georgia. During
    Interaction-2012, representatives from the International Committee of
    the Red Cross will participate in a CSTO exercise for the first time.

    According to Postnikov, their role will be to "work out issues related
    to humanitarian assistance in areas where, according to the plan of
    exercise, a conflict situation will appear."

    Russian officials anticipate that Iran's nuclear program will be
    attacked by Israel or the United States prior to the end of 2012. Last
    winter, Russia evacuated civilians from its 102nd military base
    near the Turkish border in Armenia. Because it has poor relations
    with Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, Armenia depends upon Iran for
    energy and other basic supplies. Since Russia's 2008 war with Georgia,
    Russia has supplied its 102nd base by air.

    A sustained Israeli or American attack will lead to serious instability
    south of Armenia's border. Armenian supplies likely will be cut, and
    Armenia may see an influx of refugees. Russian military officials doubt
    that a swift Israeli strike can eliminate Iran's nuclear facilities.

    An attack on Iran probably will be followed by provocations in
    areas disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Since the early 1990s,
    the two countries have been engaged in a "frozen conflict" in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Azerbaijani government is increasingly
    aligned with both Israel and the United States, apprehensive about
    Moscow, and covetous of traditional Azeri territory in northern Iran
    along with Armenian-controlled territory to the west.

    In the event of fighting in Iran or Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani refugees
    probably will move northward to Russia. In March, Russia moved
    over 20,000 troops to positions within 100 miles of its border with
    Azerbaijan.

    In the event of instability in Iran, a Russian push to Armenia could
    be motivated partially by CSTO obligations, along with humanitarian
    concerns. Nevertheless, this would give Russia control of the
    Baku-Ceyhan energy corridor, bringing oil and gas from the Caspian
    region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Because Russia controls the
    Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, the West's only other energy corridor
    from rich Caspian hydrocarbon fields, Russian control of nearly all
    Caspian energy, together with fighting in the Persian Gulf, could lead
    to unprecedented energy costs and economic instability in the West.

    http://original.antiwar.com/robert-bruce-ware/2012/09/12/iran-attack-could-spark-caucasus-war-and-economic-trouble/

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