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DENNIS SAMMUT: THERE IS A VERY WORRYING TREND IN DIPLOMATIC CIRCLES TO TRY TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM WITH SMALL MEASURES
by David Stepanyan
Interview of Dennis Sammut, Executive Director of LINKS with ARMINFO
News Agency
arminfo
Thursday, September 13, 21:10
The extradition of Ramil Safarov has already resulted in the
cancellation of a range of initiatives aimed at developing
Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue. Is it possible to continue efforts
to establish a dialogue between the Armenian and Azerbaijani public
as a precondition to resolving the Karabakh conflict, as the OSCE MG
co-chairs have repeatedly mentioned it?
Dialogue and public diplomacy were the first victims of the events of
the last two weeks. The same thing happened in 2004 when the murder
took place in Budapest. It took a lot of work and effort to restore at
least a minimum level of dialogue, but it was achieved. The same must
happen now. Those calling for cutting of people to people contacts
are simply playing into the hands of extremists.
Evidently, extradition and glorification of the murderer Safarov will
affect not only the region and the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations,
but also the policy of Yerevan and Baku with regard to international
partners. What do you predict will be the consequences of the current
situation?
There is undoubtedly concern in the international community about
how the events surrounding the release of Safarov unfolded. I think
what irritated European countries in particular was the lack of
sensitivity. The perception that Azerbaijan did not act properly will
linger for some time. In the end it will depend on future actions
too. But there is no doubt that Azerbaijani diplomacy will have some
hard work to do to restore the confidence of international partners.
Safarov's pardon has made Aliyev more popular inside Azerbaijan , even
if such actions contradict international diplomacy and International
Law. Can one conclude that the retention of power has become the
priority for Aliyev, superseding even the international interests of
Azerbaijan ?
Every government has to balance between domestic and foreign policy.
The government of Azerbaijan is not an exception. Nor is the
government of Armenia. However these issues, and the whole debate
over Nagorno-Karabakh should not be instrumentalised for short term
political gain. There will be Presidential elections in both Armenia
and Azerbaijan next year. We should expect a lot of rhetoric, but we
need to see statesmanship not cheap politics.
The years of negotiations within the Minsk Group have already shown
that it is impossible to speak of Nagorno Karabakh's future without
taking into consideration the realities of the last twenty years.
That is, "return" of disputed territories to the former
mini-metropolises is out of question regardless of the claims of
territorial integrity of entities established in the Soviet Union. Do
you think that the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity
in this context has any perspective?
We tend to see these things in black and white terms. A solution over
Nagorno Karabakh is never going to be either black or white, but some
shade of grey. The future status of Nagorno-Karabakh is perhaps the
most difficult aspect of the conflict and will be determined last.
This status needs to be underpinned by two considerations: the
security of all states and the safety of all citizens, particularly
of minorities living amongst majorities. The return to Azerbaijan of
territory around Nagorno-Karabakh currently under Armenian occupation
is generally accepted to be a precondition.
What should the international community be doing at this stage?
The Safarov incident has shown once more that the Karabakh conflict is
a difficult and serious problem with the potential to spiral quickly
into a big problem. Big problems require big solutions. There is a very
worrying trend in diplomatic circles to try to address the problem
with small measures. This is not going to work. Confidence building
measures, public diplomacy and people to people contacts are important,
even vital for any peace process to succeed. However they can be most
useful if they are developed in tandem with a proper peace process.
We need a big gesture from the international community on Karabakh
- something that the sides can see is serious, and can engage with
seriously, because if they don't they have something to loose.
by David Stepanyan
Interview of Dennis Sammut, Executive Director of LINKS with ARMINFO
News Agency
arminfo
Thursday, September 13, 21:10
The extradition of Ramil Safarov has already resulted in the
cancellation of a range of initiatives aimed at developing
Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue. Is it possible to continue efforts
to establish a dialogue between the Armenian and Azerbaijani public
as a precondition to resolving the Karabakh conflict, as the OSCE MG
co-chairs have repeatedly mentioned it?
Dialogue and public diplomacy were the first victims of the events of
the last two weeks. The same thing happened in 2004 when the murder
took place in Budapest. It took a lot of work and effort to restore at
least a minimum level of dialogue, but it was achieved. The same must
happen now. Those calling for cutting of people to people contacts
are simply playing into the hands of extremists.
Evidently, extradition and glorification of the murderer Safarov will
affect not only the region and the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations,
but also the policy of Yerevan and Baku with regard to international
partners. What do you predict will be the consequences of the current
situation?
There is undoubtedly concern in the international community about
how the events surrounding the release of Safarov unfolded. I think
what irritated European countries in particular was the lack of
sensitivity. The perception that Azerbaijan did not act properly will
linger for some time. In the end it will depend on future actions
too. But there is no doubt that Azerbaijani diplomacy will have some
hard work to do to restore the confidence of international partners.
Safarov's pardon has made Aliyev more popular inside Azerbaijan , even
if such actions contradict international diplomacy and International
Law. Can one conclude that the retention of power has become the
priority for Aliyev, superseding even the international interests of
Azerbaijan ?
Every government has to balance between domestic and foreign policy.
The government of Azerbaijan is not an exception. Nor is the
government of Armenia. However these issues, and the whole debate
over Nagorno-Karabakh should not be instrumentalised for short term
political gain. There will be Presidential elections in both Armenia
and Azerbaijan next year. We should expect a lot of rhetoric, but we
need to see statesmanship not cheap politics.
The years of negotiations within the Minsk Group have already shown
that it is impossible to speak of Nagorno Karabakh's future without
taking into consideration the realities of the last twenty years.
That is, "return" of disputed territories to the former
mini-metropolises is out of question regardless of the claims of
territorial integrity of entities established in the Soviet Union. Do
you think that the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity
in this context has any perspective?
We tend to see these things in black and white terms. A solution over
Nagorno Karabakh is never going to be either black or white, but some
shade of grey. The future status of Nagorno-Karabakh is perhaps the
most difficult aspect of the conflict and will be determined last.
This status needs to be underpinned by two considerations: the
security of all states and the safety of all citizens, particularly
of minorities living amongst majorities. The return to Azerbaijan of
territory around Nagorno-Karabakh currently under Armenian occupation
is generally accepted to be a precondition.
What should the international community be doing at this stage?
The Safarov incident has shown once more that the Karabakh conflict is
a difficult and serious problem with the potential to spiral quickly
into a big problem. Big problems require big solutions. There is a very
worrying trend in diplomatic circles to try to address the problem
with small measures. This is not going to work. Confidence building
measures, public diplomacy and people to people contacts are important,
even vital for any peace process to succeed. However they can be most
useful if they are developed in tandem with a proper peace process.
We need a big gesture from the international community on Karabakh
- something that the sides can see is serious, and can engage with
seriously, because if they don't they have something to loose.