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KOCHARYAN IS ALWAYS THERE
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27413.html
Published: 12:26:02 - 18/09/2012
Will the government of Armenia be changed prior to the presidential
elections? After Serzh Sargsyan's consultation with the government
this issue is the most discussed social-political one though not only
the change of government but also the issue of power has always been
topical in the history of independent Armenia.
The first impression from Serzh Sargsyan's meeting was that Sargsyan
showed a yellow card to the prime minister and a red one could follow
immediately. This impression is promoted also by total dissatisfaction
with the economic policy, and if Serzh Sargsyan removes him, everyone
will be happy.
Serzh Sargsyan's reprimand was preceded by the PAP allegations that
Tigran Sargsyan has set to defame Gagik Tsarukyan. This was the
first time Prosperous Armenia personalized its problems with Tigran
Sargsyan showing that it is going to reinforce the PM's issue ahead
of the presidential election.
Reprimanding Tigran Sargsyan after such statements means supporting
Gagik Tsarukyan or at least acting under his influence.
But at the same time, Serzh Sargsyan uses the PAP's issues to show
that not only the PAP but also he is dissatisfied with the government.
Serzh Sargsyan is trying to show that the situation is under his
control. At the same time though, by putting Tigran Sargsyan in an
unfavorable situation Serzh Sargsyan closes the topic of the PM's
resignation, ending the talk with the PAP.
At the same time, Serzh Sargsyan assumed responsibility for the
government by not replacing the prime minister but reprimanding him
and giving him some instructions. In this sense, Serzh Sargsyan
protects the government thus highlighting that it belongs to him
without disagreeing that everyone is dissatisfied with the government.
In other words, by just scolding the government, Serzh Sargsyan shows
to the opponents that the prime minister will not be a scapegoat.
For such support, Tigran Sargsyan and the rest of the ministers would
not mind looking like bad students.
The replacement of the prime minister is a bugbear for Serzh Sargsyan.
He will hardly get any significant social and economic effect. Even
the propaganda effect will be highly relative. Instead, he will have
to face the annoying issue of appointing a new prime minister before
the presidential elections while Serzh Sargsyan does not need such
a situation and additional negotiations with the political forces.
Besides, Tigran Sargsyan's resignation may be disapproved by the West.
Moreover, all the possible candidates for PM are pro-Russian.
The issue is not that there is nobody better than Tigran Sargsyan
but T. Sargsyan is the most convenient person, at least prior to
the presidential election. Afterwards, Serzh Sargsyan will be able
to make a decision on the premier, proceeding from the quality and
result of the elections.
At the same time, Tigran Sargsyan's staying in office before the
presidential elections is also useful for Prosperous Armenia. This
party obviously avoids criticism in Serzh Sargsyan's address. Tigran
Sargsyan and his policy are the best platform for the PAP to appear
as opposition or an alternative, and criticize as much as they want.
The PAP would be happy with the premier's replacement only in one case
- if Robert Kocharyan is appointed. Only then the PAP will get the
real chance to be majority or the real chance to get rid of Robert
Kocharyan's ambitions without being forced to rope dancing between
Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan.
But Serzh Sargsyan would not be happy to have Robert Kocharyan in
the prime minister's office, at least prior to 2017-18 elections,
when Serzh Sargsyan may resort to Kocharyan's option who is always
there to stand by in case no other option is found. And if certainly
no force majeure happens.
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27413.html
Published: 12:26:02 - 18/09/2012
Will the government of Armenia be changed prior to the presidential
elections? After Serzh Sargsyan's consultation with the government
this issue is the most discussed social-political one though not only
the change of government but also the issue of power has always been
topical in the history of independent Armenia.
The first impression from Serzh Sargsyan's meeting was that Sargsyan
showed a yellow card to the prime minister and a red one could follow
immediately. This impression is promoted also by total dissatisfaction
with the economic policy, and if Serzh Sargsyan removes him, everyone
will be happy.
Serzh Sargsyan's reprimand was preceded by the PAP allegations that
Tigran Sargsyan has set to defame Gagik Tsarukyan. This was the
first time Prosperous Armenia personalized its problems with Tigran
Sargsyan showing that it is going to reinforce the PM's issue ahead
of the presidential election.
Reprimanding Tigran Sargsyan after such statements means supporting
Gagik Tsarukyan or at least acting under his influence.
But at the same time, Serzh Sargsyan uses the PAP's issues to show
that not only the PAP but also he is dissatisfied with the government.
Serzh Sargsyan is trying to show that the situation is under his
control. At the same time though, by putting Tigran Sargsyan in an
unfavorable situation Serzh Sargsyan closes the topic of the PM's
resignation, ending the talk with the PAP.
At the same time, Serzh Sargsyan assumed responsibility for the
government by not replacing the prime minister but reprimanding him
and giving him some instructions. In this sense, Serzh Sargsyan
protects the government thus highlighting that it belongs to him
without disagreeing that everyone is dissatisfied with the government.
In other words, by just scolding the government, Serzh Sargsyan shows
to the opponents that the prime minister will not be a scapegoat.
For such support, Tigran Sargsyan and the rest of the ministers would
not mind looking like bad students.
The replacement of the prime minister is a bugbear for Serzh Sargsyan.
He will hardly get any significant social and economic effect. Even
the propaganda effect will be highly relative. Instead, he will have
to face the annoying issue of appointing a new prime minister before
the presidential elections while Serzh Sargsyan does not need such
a situation and additional negotiations with the political forces.
Besides, Tigran Sargsyan's resignation may be disapproved by the West.
Moreover, all the possible candidates for PM are pro-Russian.
The issue is not that there is nobody better than Tigran Sargsyan
but T. Sargsyan is the most convenient person, at least prior to
the presidential election. Afterwards, Serzh Sargsyan will be able
to make a decision on the premier, proceeding from the quality and
result of the elections.
At the same time, Tigran Sargsyan's staying in office before the
presidential elections is also useful for Prosperous Armenia. This
party obviously avoids criticism in Serzh Sargsyan's address. Tigran
Sargsyan and his policy are the best platform for the PAP to appear
as opposition or an alternative, and criticize as much as they want.
The PAP would be happy with the premier's replacement only in one case
- if Robert Kocharyan is appointed. Only then the PAP will get the
real chance to be majority or the real chance to get rid of Robert
Kocharyan's ambitions without being forced to rope dancing between
Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan.
But Serzh Sargsyan would not be happy to have Robert Kocharyan in
the prime minister's office, at least prior to 2017-18 elections,
when Serzh Sargsyan may resort to Kocharyan's option who is always
there to stand by in case no other option is found. And if certainly
no force majeure happens.