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CHECHNYA ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR KADYROV
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
September 17, 2012 Monday
Why the conflict between Kadyrov and Yevkurov is not over
Source: Moskovskie Novosti, September 14, 2012, p. 1 by Sergei
Markedonov
SERGEI MARKEDONOV SPEAKS ABOUT THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS
AND ABOUT INFORMAL RUBLES OF THE GAME IN THE REGION; Interview of
research fellow of the center of strategic and international research
in Washington Sergei Markedonov
The Kremlin responds with silence to all latest events in the
North Caucasus, no matter if this is organization of people's
militia in Dagestan or quarrel of Ramzan Kadyrov and Yunus-Bek
Yevkurov. Sergei Markedonov, research fellow of the center of strategic
and international research in Washington, speaks about informal rules
of the game.
Question: is the conflict between Kadyrov and Yevkurov personal or
are they simply used for aggravation of the situation in the Caucasus?
Sergei Markedonov: Of course, the conflict is not personal because
it has not appeared today. The problem of separation of Chechnya and
Ingushetia appeared since the moment of breakup of the Soviet Union
when two different parts of formerly united Chechen-Ingush Autonomous
Soviet Socialist Republic chose different paths of development. One of
them declared republic Ichkeria and the other one declared republic
Ingushetia within Russia. The question at what it is necessary to be
oriented, at which borders and documents, appeared already then.
Interestingly, territorial claims against Ingushetia were stated both
by separatist authorities and by pro-Russian authorities. Pro-Russian
Doku Zavgaev announced that Chechnya had claims for the territory
of Ingushetia in 1996. When Aushev and Zyazikov were presidents of
Ingushetia there were such disputes too. So, it were not Yevkurov
and Kadyrov who started this topic.
Question: But why did Kadyrov decide to return to the land issue now?
Sergei Markedonov: Struggle for domination in the North Caucasus is
going on and Kadyrov has demonstrated that Chechnya alone is not
sufficient for him a long time ago. He deliberately speaks about
some topics that exceed the framework of the republic, for example,
the incident in Kondopoga or situation in Lebanon or organization of
the world congress of Chechens. He tries to play the dominating role
in the Caucasus. Of course, he also needs to demonstrate that he is
simply an indispensable person for the Kremlin. That is why a certain
information line is being pursued. It is aimed at demonstration that
authorities of Ingushetia are not efficient. So, if you give powers
to us we will show how it is necessary to stabilize the Caucasus.
Question: The conflict was formally started by Yevkurov who announced
that Chechens did not conduct any special operation in Ingushetia.
Yevkurov will have elections a year later, can this be connected with
this circumstance?
Sergei Markedonov: The conflict is not very beneficial for Yevkurov.
He has much less internal resources and resources of influence at the
Kremlin than Kadyrov. Prigorodny District will be recalled for him
immediately. His own Ingush public will ask, "Why did, Mr. Yevkurov,
behaved in such a compromising way with regard to Prigorodny District
between 2008 and 2010? You negotiated with Mamsurov about giving up
of the claims for Prigorodny District. You are a traitor." Along with
this, it is beneficial for Kadyrov who pursues an offensive policy
but does not risk anything in general. The matter is not only about
domination but also about satisfaction of ambitions. The reasons also
the fact that land is a resource that is in deficit in conditions of
the Caucasus. Who controls the land has the power and money.
Question: Representative of the President Alexander Khloponin
prohibited leaders of the republic to arrange a public quarrel about
the border. Can the conflict be considered resolved?
Sergei Markedonov: Of course, it cannot. Khloponin is an insufficient
authority.
Question: He seems to be a governor in the Caucasus.
Sergei Markedonov: He develops tourism in the Caucasus but, in my
opinion, it is impossible to speak about his political functions
seriously. So far, I saw only a strategy of social and economic
development of the Caucasus prepared by him. The text of the strategy
reminded me about the food program of the Brezhnev epoch. It is also
necessary to bear in mind that leaders of the Caucasus often settle
many issues bypassing Khloponin.
Question: One region wants to take a territory of the other region.
Why did this become possible at all in a seemingly united country?
Sergei Markedonov: I remind that breakup of the Soviet Union
has started from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Heads of the two
republics, communist parties of Armenia and Azerbaijan, could not
divide Nagorno-Karabakh. The center did not react on time.
Incidentally, I do not see a reaction of the center now too. Instead
of flying with cranes Putin had to invite the two leaders to talk to
them in front of television cameras and tell them, "Guys, stop it,
this is a Russian territory and there are the same laws and the same
order." Various signals are sent instead of this and they are read
by Kadyrov as complete approval. Moscow keeps silent about all issues.
People's militia is organized in Dagestan and there is silence.
Cossack police is organized in Krasnodar Territory and there
is silence. Two rounds of the discussion about the border between
Chechnya and Ingushetia have passed and there is silence again. How
is this read? It is read as if everything is permitted.
Question: Is it possible to say that Moscow is losing control over
the situation in the Caucasus?
Sergei Markedonov: It has lost it a long time ago if we speak not
about the portraits of Putin in Grozny as an indicator of control
but about observance of the Russian laws and rules of the game.
Question: But leaders of the republics are subordinated to the
President.
Sergei Markedonov: Formally, yes. But can you go to Chechnya now
and strike some deal with real estate? Will you do this? I think
that 99% of the population of the country will not. There is also
another example: will you go to Dzheiraksky District of Ingushetia
for mountain skiing together with your family? You will hardly do this.
This is all.
The state itself has created a system in which informal agreements
in the North Caucasus mean more than the law. If I have reached an
agreement with Kadyrov this means something. In principle, Russian
laws do not mean anything there. When Kadyrov summons generals of
the federal structures to a meeting and cracks down on them, is this
control? This did not start today. Caucasus is simply a serious
problem and it is necessary to work on its solving systemically
but nobody wants to do this. That is why the scheme of looting and
external loyalty is working: we will shut the eyes to what you loot
and divide there but you give us 90% of votes for One Russia and
Vladimir Putin. So, they give this percentage.
Question: With regard to the conflict some experts started saying
that a new war was possible in the Caucasus.
Sergei Markedonov: Such conversations are just guessing. Yes, situation
in the Caucasus is unstable. The conflict of Yevkurov and Kadyrov may
provoke growth of tension but what kind of war will this be? A war
of entire Caucasus against Russia? No, this will not be. A conflict
between Ingush and Chechen people? It is possible if the necessary
decisions are not made on time but it is possible as a conflict
and not as combat operations. There are many conflict places in the
Caucasus. In the situation regarding the murder of sheikh Said Afandi
Chirkeisky it is possible to speak about growing confrontation between
Sufi Moslems and Salafite Moslems in Dagestan. This is one place. In
case of growth of the conflict between Yevkurov and Kadyrov it will be
possible to speak about the confrontation between the republics. This
is another place. However, a war in the Caucasus sounds too general
like "there will be a world war."
[Translated from Russian]
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
September 17, 2012 Monday
Why the conflict between Kadyrov and Yevkurov is not over
Source: Moskovskie Novosti, September 14, 2012, p. 1 by Sergei
Markedonov
SERGEI MARKEDONOV SPEAKS ABOUT THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS
AND ABOUT INFORMAL RUBLES OF THE GAME IN THE REGION; Interview of
research fellow of the center of strategic and international research
in Washington Sergei Markedonov
The Kremlin responds with silence to all latest events in the
North Caucasus, no matter if this is organization of people's
militia in Dagestan or quarrel of Ramzan Kadyrov and Yunus-Bek
Yevkurov. Sergei Markedonov, research fellow of the center of strategic
and international research in Washington, speaks about informal rules
of the game.
Question: is the conflict between Kadyrov and Yevkurov personal or
are they simply used for aggravation of the situation in the Caucasus?
Sergei Markedonov: Of course, the conflict is not personal because
it has not appeared today. The problem of separation of Chechnya and
Ingushetia appeared since the moment of breakup of the Soviet Union
when two different parts of formerly united Chechen-Ingush Autonomous
Soviet Socialist Republic chose different paths of development. One of
them declared republic Ichkeria and the other one declared republic
Ingushetia within Russia. The question at what it is necessary to be
oriented, at which borders and documents, appeared already then.
Interestingly, territorial claims against Ingushetia were stated both
by separatist authorities and by pro-Russian authorities. Pro-Russian
Doku Zavgaev announced that Chechnya had claims for the territory
of Ingushetia in 1996. When Aushev and Zyazikov were presidents of
Ingushetia there were such disputes too. So, it were not Yevkurov
and Kadyrov who started this topic.
Question: But why did Kadyrov decide to return to the land issue now?
Sergei Markedonov: Struggle for domination in the North Caucasus is
going on and Kadyrov has demonstrated that Chechnya alone is not
sufficient for him a long time ago. He deliberately speaks about
some topics that exceed the framework of the republic, for example,
the incident in Kondopoga or situation in Lebanon or organization of
the world congress of Chechens. He tries to play the dominating role
in the Caucasus. Of course, he also needs to demonstrate that he is
simply an indispensable person for the Kremlin. That is why a certain
information line is being pursued. It is aimed at demonstration that
authorities of Ingushetia are not efficient. So, if you give powers
to us we will show how it is necessary to stabilize the Caucasus.
Question: The conflict was formally started by Yevkurov who announced
that Chechens did not conduct any special operation in Ingushetia.
Yevkurov will have elections a year later, can this be connected with
this circumstance?
Sergei Markedonov: The conflict is not very beneficial for Yevkurov.
He has much less internal resources and resources of influence at the
Kremlin than Kadyrov. Prigorodny District will be recalled for him
immediately. His own Ingush public will ask, "Why did, Mr. Yevkurov,
behaved in such a compromising way with regard to Prigorodny District
between 2008 and 2010? You negotiated with Mamsurov about giving up
of the claims for Prigorodny District. You are a traitor." Along with
this, it is beneficial for Kadyrov who pursues an offensive policy
but does not risk anything in general. The matter is not only about
domination but also about satisfaction of ambitions. The reasons also
the fact that land is a resource that is in deficit in conditions of
the Caucasus. Who controls the land has the power and money.
Question: Representative of the President Alexander Khloponin
prohibited leaders of the republic to arrange a public quarrel about
the border. Can the conflict be considered resolved?
Sergei Markedonov: Of course, it cannot. Khloponin is an insufficient
authority.
Question: He seems to be a governor in the Caucasus.
Sergei Markedonov: He develops tourism in the Caucasus but, in my
opinion, it is impossible to speak about his political functions
seriously. So far, I saw only a strategy of social and economic
development of the Caucasus prepared by him. The text of the strategy
reminded me about the food program of the Brezhnev epoch. It is also
necessary to bear in mind that leaders of the Caucasus often settle
many issues bypassing Khloponin.
Question: One region wants to take a territory of the other region.
Why did this become possible at all in a seemingly united country?
Sergei Markedonov: I remind that breakup of the Soviet Union
has started from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Heads of the two
republics, communist parties of Armenia and Azerbaijan, could not
divide Nagorno-Karabakh. The center did not react on time.
Incidentally, I do not see a reaction of the center now too. Instead
of flying with cranes Putin had to invite the two leaders to talk to
them in front of television cameras and tell them, "Guys, stop it,
this is a Russian territory and there are the same laws and the same
order." Various signals are sent instead of this and they are read
by Kadyrov as complete approval. Moscow keeps silent about all issues.
People's militia is organized in Dagestan and there is silence.
Cossack police is organized in Krasnodar Territory and there
is silence. Two rounds of the discussion about the border between
Chechnya and Ingushetia have passed and there is silence again. How
is this read? It is read as if everything is permitted.
Question: Is it possible to say that Moscow is losing control over
the situation in the Caucasus?
Sergei Markedonov: It has lost it a long time ago if we speak not
about the portraits of Putin in Grozny as an indicator of control
but about observance of the Russian laws and rules of the game.
Question: But leaders of the republics are subordinated to the
President.
Sergei Markedonov: Formally, yes. But can you go to Chechnya now
and strike some deal with real estate? Will you do this? I think
that 99% of the population of the country will not. There is also
another example: will you go to Dzheiraksky District of Ingushetia
for mountain skiing together with your family? You will hardly do this.
This is all.
The state itself has created a system in which informal agreements
in the North Caucasus mean more than the law. If I have reached an
agreement with Kadyrov this means something. In principle, Russian
laws do not mean anything there. When Kadyrov summons generals of
the federal structures to a meeting and cracks down on them, is this
control? This did not start today. Caucasus is simply a serious
problem and it is necessary to work on its solving systemically
but nobody wants to do this. That is why the scheme of looting and
external loyalty is working: we will shut the eyes to what you loot
and divide there but you give us 90% of votes for One Russia and
Vladimir Putin. So, they give this percentage.
Question: With regard to the conflict some experts started saying
that a new war was possible in the Caucasus.
Sergei Markedonov: Such conversations are just guessing. Yes, situation
in the Caucasus is unstable. The conflict of Yevkurov and Kadyrov may
provoke growth of tension but what kind of war will this be? A war
of entire Caucasus against Russia? No, this will not be. A conflict
between Ingush and Chechen people? It is possible if the necessary
decisions are not made on time but it is possible as a conflict
and not as combat operations. There are many conflict places in the
Caucasus. In the situation regarding the murder of sheikh Said Afandi
Chirkeisky it is possible to speak about growing confrontation between
Sufi Moslems and Salafite Moslems in Dagestan. This is one place. In
case of growth of the conflict between Yevkurov and Kadyrov it will be
possible to speak about the confrontation between the republics. This
is another place. However, a war in the Caucasus sounds too general
like "there will be a world war."
[Translated from Russian]