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ARMENIAN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REMAINS RESILIENT THROUGH AUGUST
by: Venla Sipila
Global Insight
September 24, 2012
The latest indicator of economic activity published by the country's
National Statistical Office testify to expansion of 8.3% year-on-year
(y/y) in January-August, according toBlack Sea Press. Coming after
growth of 7.7% y/y reported for January-July, this result points to
persistently robust performance in August. In particular, agricultural
output rose by 10.8% y/y, while the volume of domestic trade increased
by 2.8% y/y. The industrial sector achieved an expansion rate of
over 13% y/y. On the other hand, the construction sector output
declined by 4.1% y/y. In addition, it was reported that the value
of exports in the first eight months of the year rose by 11.4% y/y,
while imports gained 3.6% y/y. The latest quarterly national accounts
data from the National Statistical Office put economic growth in the
second quarter of the year to 6.6% year-on-year (y/y), while seasonal
expansion of agricultural output helped quarter-on-quarter (q/q)
growth reach around 37%. As suggested already by the trend indictor
of output, the industrial and trade sectors have also performed well,
as opposed to construction activity.
Significance:Although the indicator of economic activity typically
shows higher expansion rates than the actual national accounts data,
it now seems likely that the third-quarter GDP growth rate may provide
for some upside surprises. On the other hand, it still remains likely
that the second half of the year will testify to a slowing growth
trend. Earlier reports have indicated that the fairly good showing
of the industrial sector this year to a great extent has relied on
food production. This is good news from the point view of external
balances too, given that Armenia is reliant on imports for some
basic food items, and the good output result may help in suppressing
this. Then again, the trade deficit remains deep, and presents a
source of external financial risks. Both overall economic performance
and the external balance remain vulnerable to external developments,
given that Armenia still greatly depends on inflows of investments
and remittances, in particular.
From: A. Papazian
by: Venla Sipila
Global Insight
September 24, 2012
The latest indicator of economic activity published by the country's
National Statistical Office testify to expansion of 8.3% year-on-year
(y/y) in January-August, according toBlack Sea Press. Coming after
growth of 7.7% y/y reported for January-July, this result points to
persistently robust performance in August. In particular, agricultural
output rose by 10.8% y/y, while the volume of domestic trade increased
by 2.8% y/y. The industrial sector achieved an expansion rate of
over 13% y/y. On the other hand, the construction sector output
declined by 4.1% y/y. In addition, it was reported that the value
of exports in the first eight months of the year rose by 11.4% y/y,
while imports gained 3.6% y/y. The latest quarterly national accounts
data from the National Statistical Office put economic growth in the
second quarter of the year to 6.6% year-on-year (y/y), while seasonal
expansion of agricultural output helped quarter-on-quarter (q/q)
growth reach around 37%. As suggested already by the trend indictor
of output, the industrial and trade sectors have also performed well,
as opposed to construction activity.
Significance:Although the indicator of economic activity typically
shows higher expansion rates than the actual national accounts data,
it now seems likely that the third-quarter GDP growth rate may provide
for some upside surprises. On the other hand, it still remains likely
that the second half of the year will testify to a slowing growth
trend. Earlier reports have indicated that the fairly good showing
of the industrial sector this year to a great extent has relied on
food production. This is good news from the point view of external
balances too, given that Armenia is reliant on imports for some
basic food items, and the good output result may help in suppressing
this. Then again, the trade deficit remains deep, and presents a
source of external financial risks. Both overall economic performance
and the external balance remain vulnerable to external developments,
given that Armenia still greatly depends on inflows of investments
and remittances, in particular.
From: A. Papazian