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WHY DOES THE WEST TOLERATE THE ALIYEV CLAN'S EXISTENCE?
http://www.aravot.am/en/2012/09/24/112685/
September 24, 2012 22:52
Political scientist Sahak Sahradyan expressed an idea talking about
the fact of releasing and heroizing murderer Ramil Safarov during
a conversation with www.aravot.am that the Aliyev clan used that
episode for the reproduction of its own power. "We focus on the
emotional side of the issue disregarding the political motives. For
some reason, besides the emotional side, we don't analyze, don't talk
about how it turned out that the Azerbaijani government took that
step and what forces were behind it, which allowed it to cut such
a deal. Those who cut such a deal couldn't but understand that all
this would evoke a serious international response. I would explain the
Azerbaijani government's motives with the disposition to the Aliyevs'
megaprojects - since the 2000s, when the oil prices started to go up,
the Azerbaijani policy has been based on putting forward megaprojects
to its people, its population. Among them was the creation of the
biggest flag in the world, which, if you remember, fell and say,
the victory in the Eurovision Song Contest and releasing Safarov and
having a military budget exceeding the Armenian state budget and say,
installing Aliyev Senior statues in foreign countries like Venezuela
and Mexico. All those megaprojects are links of a logical chain,
which is based on distracting the Azerbaijani population from the
problems inside the country, the most important thing is that one
must explain to the Azerbaijani population why they live in poverty
having plenty of hydrocarbon reserves - oil and natural gas. There
is only one explanation for poverty - there is a hostile country,
Armenia, which we can defeat only by having a big military budget, we
have heroes whom we bring to the motherland by spending $2-3 billion,
giving a bribe or cutting some illicit deals, release them, we must
appear respectable and be famous around the world, for which we need
to have a big flag, win Eurovision. So the low standard of living is
legitimized," the political scientist says.
As for what international forces and sponsors helped cut that
deal, according to our interlocutor, in order to understand this,
one should analyze on what foundation the Aliyev clan is built and
what is the logic of its existence. "The intelligence services of
the Western countries certainly couldn't but know about the deal,
since the preparation took a rather long period of time and such
decisions are not made overnight. Azerbaijan's place and role in the
world is conditional on not only the amount of hydrocarbon reserves,
but also the ethnic and religious composition of its population and
its demographic characteristics. Azerbaijan is the third country
around the world that has a majority Shia population. The Shias in
Iran are the majority, they are in power, in Yemen, the Shias are
the majority, but they are not in power, the power is in the hands
of the Sunnis there, in Azerbaijan, the Shias are the majority,
but since the state is established based mainly on principles of
secularism, the influence of Iran is very limited. And limiting Iran's
influence is the main task of the West, particularly Israel, which
is perceived as the main ally of the West in the Middle East. Thus,
allowing Azerbaijan to take the path of Islamization means giving
Iran a serious source of influence in the Caucasus region.
"Let us not forget that Azerbaijan has an unsettled conflict with
Armenia, it has a potential problem with Georgia - Marneuli District,
which is populated with Azerbaijanis, may cause a conflict in the
whole Transcaspian region, because the division of the Caspian Sea
is not finished yet. The international status of the Caspian Sea is
not clarified yet - the West tolerates the existence of the Aliyev
clan only because the Aliyevs can nip in the bud any attempt of
Islamization. Certainly, it would be more desirable for the West, if
the Aliyevs were able to develop a modern state in compliance with the
European standards, but since neither the Azerbaijani elite, nor the
society are ready for it, the path of developing a nationalist state,
a dictatorship is taken instead. For the existence and development of
nationalism, one needs heroes and Azerbaijan suffers from a deficit
of heroes as a defeated party in the war."
According to our interlocutor, in this case, Safarov 100% corresponds
to the image of a hero, because he is, using the Azerbaijani terms,
from the occupied regions, secondly, he has killed an Armenian and
thirdly, bringing him to the motherland, Aliyev showed that any
anti-Armenian deed is sponsored by the government.
"Certainly, this damages the international image of Azerbaijan.
Naturally, Azerbaijan, as well as international power centers,
couldn't but understand this, but since it was done realizing all
this, one should assume that it is very important to keep nationalist
sentiment in Azerbaijan inflamed as a means of preventing the growth
of Islamic sentiment. On the other hand, one should mention that
releasing Safarov had an impact on Armenia's international position and
the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh - the international position of
our country was strengthened, because Armenia started to be in a more
favorable position than Azerbaijan as a tolerant, democratic country
more integrated in the Western values. I think that the appeals of
those people who call for a new Nemesis or organizing a terrorist
attack at the state level are very wrong."
Here we have Israel's example, which organizes terrorist attacks
at the state level even beyond the country borders. There is a
consensus regarding Israel as the only internationally recognized
people, which underwent genocide - what Israel is allowed to do, no
one else can, because a serious capital and lobbyist resources are
in the hands of Israeli and Jewish organizations and those lobbyist
resources have served and have been used to allow Israel to carry
out terrorist attacks at the state level. I think Armenia doesn't
have such a resource and it will be very wrong to take Israel's
path. It will make Armenia closer not to Israel, but to Azerbaijan
as a state sponsoring terrorism and carrying out terrorist attacks,"
the political scientist thinks.
Sahak Sahradyan doesn't blame the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for
Safarov's release at all, but he thinks that this ministry should
intelligently use this incident to strengthen Armenia's position in
the negotiations. He thinks that Safarov will soon be forgotten in
Azerbaijan, because he is a one-time hero.
Nune AREVSHATYAN
http://www.aravot.am/en/2012/09/24/112685/
September 24, 2012 22:52
Political scientist Sahak Sahradyan expressed an idea talking about
the fact of releasing and heroizing murderer Ramil Safarov during
a conversation with www.aravot.am that the Aliyev clan used that
episode for the reproduction of its own power. "We focus on the
emotional side of the issue disregarding the political motives. For
some reason, besides the emotional side, we don't analyze, don't talk
about how it turned out that the Azerbaijani government took that
step and what forces were behind it, which allowed it to cut such
a deal. Those who cut such a deal couldn't but understand that all
this would evoke a serious international response. I would explain the
Azerbaijani government's motives with the disposition to the Aliyevs'
megaprojects - since the 2000s, when the oil prices started to go up,
the Azerbaijani policy has been based on putting forward megaprojects
to its people, its population. Among them was the creation of the
biggest flag in the world, which, if you remember, fell and say,
the victory in the Eurovision Song Contest and releasing Safarov and
having a military budget exceeding the Armenian state budget and say,
installing Aliyev Senior statues in foreign countries like Venezuela
and Mexico. All those megaprojects are links of a logical chain,
which is based on distracting the Azerbaijani population from the
problems inside the country, the most important thing is that one
must explain to the Azerbaijani population why they live in poverty
having plenty of hydrocarbon reserves - oil and natural gas. There
is only one explanation for poverty - there is a hostile country,
Armenia, which we can defeat only by having a big military budget, we
have heroes whom we bring to the motherland by spending $2-3 billion,
giving a bribe or cutting some illicit deals, release them, we must
appear respectable and be famous around the world, for which we need
to have a big flag, win Eurovision. So the low standard of living is
legitimized," the political scientist says.
As for what international forces and sponsors helped cut that
deal, according to our interlocutor, in order to understand this,
one should analyze on what foundation the Aliyev clan is built and
what is the logic of its existence. "The intelligence services of
the Western countries certainly couldn't but know about the deal,
since the preparation took a rather long period of time and such
decisions are not made overnight. Azerbaijan's place and role in the
world is conditional on not only the amount of hydrocarbon reserves,
but also the ethnic and religious composition of its population and
its demographic characteristics. Azerbaijan is the third country
around the world that has a majority Shia population. The Shias in
Iran are the majority, they are in power, in Yemen, the Shias are
the majority, but they are not in power, the power is in the hands
of the Sunnis there, in Azerbaijan, the Shias are the majority,
but since the state is established based mainly on principles of
secularism, the influence of Iran is very limited. And limiting Iran's
influence is the main task of the West, particularly Israel, which
is perceived as the main ally of the West in the Middle East. Thus,
allowing Azerbaijan to take the path of Islamization means giving
Iran a serious source of influence in the Caucasus region.
"Let us not forget that Azerbaijan has an unsettled conflict with
Armenia, it has a potential problem with Georgia - Marneuli District,
which is populated with Azerbaijanis, may cause a conflict in the
whole Transcaspian region, because the division of the Caspian Sea
is not finished yet. The international status of the Caspian Sea is
not clarified yet - the West tolerates the existence of the Aliyev
clan only because the Aliyevs can nip in the bud any attempt of
Islamization. Certainly, it would be more desirable for the West, if
the Aliyevs were able to develop a modern state in compliance with the
European standards, but since neither the Azerbaijani elite, nor the
society are ready for it, the path of developing a nationalist state,
a dictatorship is taken instead. For the existence and development of
nationalism, one needs heroes and Azerbaijan suffers from a deficit
of heroes as a defeated party in the war."
According to our interlocutor, in this case, Safarov 100% corresponds
to the image of a hero, because he is, using the Azerbaijani terms,
from the occupied regions, secondly, he has killed an Armenian and
thirdly, bringing him to the motherland, Aliyev showed that any
anti-Armenian deed is sponsored by the government.
"Certainly, this damages the international image of Azerbaijan.
Naturally, Azerbaijan, as well as international power centers,
couldn't but understand this, but since it was done realizing all
this, one should assume that it is very important to keep nationalist
sentiment in Azerbaijan inflamed as a means of preventing the growth
of Islamic sentiment. On the other hand, one should mention that
releasing Safarov had an impact on Armenia's international position and
the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh - the international position of
our country was strengthened, because Armenia started to be in a more
favorable position than Azerbaijan as a tolerant, democratic country
more integrated in the Western values. I think that the appeals of
those people who call for a new Nemesis or organizing a terrorist
attack at the state level are very wrong."
Here we have Israel's example, which organizes terrorist attacks
at the state level even beyond the country borders. There is a
consensus regarding Israel as the only internationally recognized
people, which underwent genocide - what Israel is allowed to do, no
one else can, because a serious capital and lobbyist resources are
in the hands of Israeli and Jewish organizations and those lobbyist
resources have served and have been used to allow Israel to carry
out terrorist attacks at the state level. I think Armenia doesn't
have such a resource and it will be very wrong to take Israel's
path. It will make Armenia closer not to Israel, but to Azerbaijan
as a state sponsoring terrorism and carrying out terrorist attacks,"
the political scientist thinks.
Sahak Sahradyan doesn't blame the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for
Safarov's release at all, but he thinks that this ministry should
intelligently use this incident to strengthen Armenia's position in
the negotiations. He thinks that Safarov will soon be forgotten in
Azerbaijan, because he is a one-time hero.
Nune AREVSHATYAN