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Risk WatchDog
Sept 28 2012
Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Risks Rising
Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:50 BST
Tensions are once again rising between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the
disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies in Azerbaijan but
is ruled by Armenians. Polit
ical temperatures have been raised substantially by Azerbaijan's
decision in early September 2012 to pardon an Azeri soldier who
murdered an Armenian soldier in Hungary in 2004, while the two were
attending a NATO-sponsored training session. That the Azeri was
repatriated to Azerbaijan, pardoned, promoted, and given back-pay for
his imprisonment in Hungary infuriated Armenians and prompted
criticism from NATO's secretary-general.
Going forward, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev both have an interest in tapping nationalist
sentiment, as they face re-election in February and October 2013,
respectively. The real war risk stems from an unintentional escalation
of fighting as a result of a low-level skirmish, if one side responds
disproportionately against the other. This could result in `only' a
limited war. However, there would be a risk that Azerbaijan, sensing a
`now or never' moment to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh, decides to expand
the conflict to a more vigorous level. Baku generally has more
interest than Yerevan in changing the status quo.
If there is a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the stakes would
be much higher than their war in 1991-1994, because both sides are
much more heavily armed, and because key pipelines from the Caspian
Sea to Europe now pass through Azerbaijan. In addition, Russia,
Armenia's main ally and security guarantor, is much more assertive now
than in the early 1990s, and could intervene to preserve the status
quo. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's security pact with Turkey - a member of
NATO - means that Ankara could get dragged into the conflict, which
could quickly become a Russia-West proxy war. Although we would expect
intense diplomacy by the major powers to restrain Armenia and
Azerbaijan, we cannot preclude a return to fighting.
Further coverage of the politics and economy of the Caucasus,
including Georgia's forthcoming parliamentary election, is available
to subscribers at Business Monitor Online.
This Week's Trivia Question
Last week, we asked, `what late 1990s Hollywood film so impressed the
then-Chinese president, Jiang Zemin, in 1998, that he urged his fellow
Politburo members to see it?' The answer is, of course, Titanic.
This week, something a little tougher: which two European republics
have seen the re-emergence of an old border dispute since August 2012?
And what incident connects the leader of one of these republics with
the British singer James Blunt?
http://www.riskwatchdog.com/2012/09/28/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-risks-rising/
Sept 28 2012
Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Risks Rising
Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:50 BST
Tensions are once again rising between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the
disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies in Azerbaijan but
is ruled by Armenians. Polit
ical temperatures have been raised substantially by Azerbaijan's
decision in early September 2012 to pardon an Azeri soldier who
murdered an Armenian soldier in Hungary in 2004, while the two were
attending a NATO-sponsored training session. That the Azeri was
repatriated to Azerbaijan, pardoned, promoted, and given back-pay for
his imprisonment in Hungary infuriated Armenians and prompted
criticism from NATO's secretary-general.
Going forward, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev both have an interest in tapping nationalist
sentiment, as they face re-election in February and October 2013,
respectively. The real war risk stems from an unintentional escalation
of fighting as a result of a low-level skirmish, if one side responds
disproportionately against the other. This could result in `only' a
limited war. However, there would be a risk that Azerbaijan, sensing a
`now or never' moment to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh, decides to expand
the conflict to a more vigorous level. Baku generally has more
interest than Yerevan in changing the status quo.
If there is a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the stakes would
be much higher than their war in 1991-1994, because both sides are
much more heavily armed, and because key pipelines from the Caspian
Sea to Europe now pass through Azerbaijan. In addition, Russia,
Armenia's main ally and security guarantor, is much more assertive now
than in the early 1990s, and could intervene to preserve the status
quo. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's security pact with Turkey - a member of
NATO - means that Ankara could get dragged into the conflict, which
could quickly become a Russia-West proxy war. Although we would expect
intense diplomacy by the major powers to restrain Armenia and
Azerbaijan, we cannot preclude a return to fighting.
Further coverage of the politics and economy of the Caucasus,
including Georgia's forthcoming parliamentary election, is available
to subscribers at Business Monitor Online.
This Week's Trivia Question
Last week, we asked, `what late 1990s Hollywood film so impressed the
then-Chinese president, Jiang Zemin, in 1998, that he urged his fellow
Politburo members to see it?' The answer is, of course, Titanic.
This week, something a little tougher: which two European republics
have seen the re-emergence of an old border dispute since August 2012?
And what incident connects the leader of one of these republics with
the British singer James Blunt?
http://www.riskwatchdog.com/2012/09/28/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-risks-rising/