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Who Is `Heating' Autumn?

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  • Who Is `Heating' Autumn?

    Who Is `Heating' Autumn?

    HAKOB BADALYAN

    Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments27532.html

    Published: 11:36:53 - 28/09/2012

    The authorities are heating up Vartan Oskanian's `case' and are set to
    bring charges against him for the Civilitas case. They may even remand
    Vartan Oskanian in custody for two months. Ahead of the presidential
    elections this will only boost Vartan Oskanian's rating. So, after
    Serzh Sargsyan, the ex-foreign minister will be the next most
    motivated and substantial candidate for president, especially, taking
    into account that the society likes `victims'.

    The government seems to be doing a big favor to the chairman of the
    Armenian National Congress Levon Ter-Petrosyan who is facing the
    dilemma of running or not. Ter-Petrosyan understands that in case he
    runs in the election, his results will be miserable, while generating
    another February 2008 is actually impossible. On the other hand,
    Ter-Petrosyan's status and his entourage holds him back because they
    state Ter-Petrosyan is everyone's candidate there.

    The optimal choice for Ter-Petrosyan would be not running regardless
    of whether he wants to leave or stay in politics. Unlike his
    entourage, Ter-Petrosyan has a better understanding of the situation.

    Vartan Oskanian's `persecution' is a good rationale for Ter-Petrosyan
    not to run. If the public is focused on Oskanian's case, moreover, if
    he is arrested, he will become a unique symbol of the country
    suffering due to the system.

    So, hardly anyone will accuse Ter-Petrosyan of not running in order to
    support the symbol which becomes the victim of political persecution.

    Heating up Oskanian's case and bringing charges against him, the
    authorities directly or indirectly do a favor to the Congress leader.
    There is nothing else Ter-Petrosyan can do but to skip the election.
    If the Congress' leader wants to run he needs to do something to be
    accused for something worse and remanded in custody for a longer term
    than Oskanian.

    The PAP has no alternative either. Vartan Oskanian is a PAP member.
    Prosperous Armenia should do nothing but nominate a candidate who will
    be Vartan Oskanian since he is `persecuted'.

    The motion strip Oskanian of immunity came after Adibekyan the
    sociologist had presented the results of a poll indicating Gagik
    Tsarukyan as the popular candidate.

    Apparently, as a presidential candidate Tsarukyan worries the
    government so it is trying to have Oskanian run instead.

    Or, in order to defend his friend Oskanian, Kocharyan will have to
    run. It is not ruled out that Serzh Sargsyan wants to lure Kocharyan
    out of his `den' to close Kocharyan's chapter in the ruling system and
    political life once and for all. Or in order to show that Kocharyan
    has no courage to confront him openly. This could be an eloquent
    message to the system.

    Anyway, interestingly the autumn which the opposition promised is
    heated up by the government. Perhaps, after making those statements,
    the opposition has understood that a heated autumn is what Serzh
    Sargsyan needs, so it has decided not to follow up its own statements.
    The government is following them instead.

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