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The Moscow Times, Russia
March 31 2013
Azerbaijan, Armenia Deal on Karabakh 'Unlikely'
31 March 2013 | Issue 5099
Reuters
PARIS - Azerbaijan and Armenia are unlikely to reach a deal this year
over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and there is a risk
of the region sliding toward a war, the enclave's prime minister said
Thursday.
A conflict between ethnic Azeris and Armenians erupted in 1991 over
the area, a mountainous enclave within Azerbaijan with a majority
Armenian population, after Armenian-backed forces seized it and seven
surrounding Azeri districts.
A truce was signed in 1994 after about 30,000 people had been killed.
But there was no peace treaty, and violence still flares sporadically
along the ceasefire line and Azerbaijan's border with Armenia.
Foreign governments are wary of skirmishes in the South Caucasus due
to concerns that a new conflict could erupt, threatening pipelines
that carry natural gas and oil to Europe in an area where Russia,
Turkey and Iran all have strategic interests.
"If we manage to end the year peacefully then that will be
constructive, but in terms of concrete accords to resolve the
conflict, I'm not optimistic for this year," Nagorno-Karabakh's prime
minister, Arayik Haroutiounian, said in Paris during a visit to meet
Franco-Armenian investors.
The enclave of 160,000 people runs its own affairs with heavy Armenian
military and financial backing. Armenia has a security deal with
Russia, while Azerbaijan has one with Turkey.
Oil-producing Azerbaijan, host to global majors including BP, Chevron
and ExxonMobil, often threatens to take it back by force, though it
says it favors diplomacy.
"Neither Karabakh nor Azerbaijan would benefit from a war because I
don't think either country would win outright, but we can't rule it
out," Haroutiounian said.
While he said Nagorno-Karabakh would not strike first, his
administration had, like Azerbaijan, steadily increased arms imports
to ensure that it could defend itself.
"I think that a new war would lead to a huge humanitarian crisis and
be extremely bloody," he said. "The losses would be much greater than
before - hundreds of thousands killed and injured - because of the
arms race of the last few years."
There have been several rounds of talks between the neighbors since
1994. The foreign ministers of both countries met this month for
informal talks mediated by Russia, France and the United States in a
team known as the Minsk Group.
Those talks, which do not include Nagorno-Karabakh representatives,
have yet to yield any results, although there is hope that the
re-election of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan will give fresh
impetus to finding a solution.
Sargsyan has previously accused Azerbaijan of accumulating a
"horrendous quantity" of arms to prepare for a resumption of fighting.
But he has also said he wants a negotiated deal.
Haroutiounian, who fought in the 1991-94 conflict, said that for the
moment public opinion in Azerbaijan and Armenia was not ready for a
compromise, making it much harder for their leaders to accept any
settlement.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/azerbaijan-armenia-deal-on-karabakh-unlikely/477700.html
March 31 2013
Azerbaijan, Armenia Deal on Karabakh 'Unlikely'
31 March 2013 | Issue 5099
Reuters
PARIS - Azerbaijan and Armenia are unlikely to reach a deal this year
over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and there is a risk
of the region sliding toward a war, the enclave's prime minister said
Thursday.
A conflict between ethnic Azeris and Armenians erupted in 1991 over
the area, a mountainous enclave within Azerbaijan with a majority
Armenian population, after Armenian-backed forces seized it and seven
surrounding Azeri districts.
A truce was signed in 1994 after about 30,000 people had been killed.
But there was no peace treaty, and violence still flares sporadically
along the ceasefire line and Azerbaijan's border with Armenia.
Foreign governments are wary of skirmishes in the South Caucasus due
to concerns that a new conflict could erupt, threatening pipelines
that carry natural gas and oil to Europe in an area where Russia,
Turkey and Iran all have strategic interests.
"If we manage to end the year peacefully then that will be
constructive, but in terms of concrete accords to resolve the
conflict, I'm not optimistic for this year," Nagorno-Karabakh's prime
minister, Arayik Haroutiounian, said in Paris during a visit to meet
Franco-Armenian investors.
The enclave of 160,000 people runs its own affairs with heavy Armenian
military and financial backing. Armenia has a security deal with
Russia, while Azerbaijan has one with Turkey.
Oil-producing Azerbaijan, host to global majors including BP, Chevron
and ExxonMobil, often threatens to take it back by force, though it
says it favors diplomacy.
"Neither Karabakh nor Azerbaijan would benefit from a war because I
don't think either country would win outright, but we can't rule it
out," Haroutiounian said.
While he said Nagorno-Karabakh would not strike first, his
administration had, like Azerbaijan, steadily increased arms imports
to ensure that it could defend itself.
"I think that a new war would lead to a huge humanitarian crisis and
be extremely bloody," he said. "The losses would be much greater than
before - hundreds of thousands killed and injured - because of the
arms race of the last few years."
There have been several rounds of talks between the neighbors since
1994. The foreign ministers of both countries met this month for
informal talks mediated by Russia, France and the United States in a
team known as the Minsk Group.
Those talks, which do not include Nagorno-Karabakh representatives,
have yet to yield any results, although there is hope that the
re-election of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan will give fresh
impetus to finding a solution.
Sargsyan has previously accused Azerbaijan of accumulating a
"horrendous quantity" of arms to prepare for a resumption of fighting.
But he has also said he wants a negotiated deal.
Haroutiounian, who fought in the 1991-94 conflict, said that for the
moment public opinion in Azerbaijan and Armenia was not ready for a
compromise, making it much harder for their leaders to accept any
settlement.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/azerbaijan-armenia-deal-on-karabakh-unlikely/477700.html