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New Reality In Eurasia
The presence of NATO in Afghanistan is a key political and life factor
in a vast space and a constant of geopolitics. Despite lots of
unpleasant factors relating to military presence, NATO has become a
center of gravitation of all negative relating to the activities of
insurgents and radicals in the region.
The presence of NATO enabled a number of states, including China,
Russia, Iran and Pakistan, to be in a more or less predictable
situation. After the withdrawal of forces, even partial withdrawal,
NATO will not play its previous role any more.
It is clear that the radical groups will soon extend their activities
and influence into the Eurasian space and nobody will be able to tell
the limits. Will such an organization as Shanghai Cooperation
Organization resolve security issues in Eurasia, and will two leading
powers of this alliance be ready to resolve these issues?
Not a long time ago the NATO-CSTO meeting in Brussels revealed that
NATO is not likely to accelerate cooperation with CSTO. Even if one
assumes that different NATO member states have different attitudes to
the perspective of cooperation with CSTO, and there are NATO member
states which have a radical attitude to this pro-Russian bloc, one way
or another, NATO is not rushing to cooperate.
Some politicians explain it by NATO's reluctance to support the bloc
which Russia uses to control several famous states. However, the
impression is that the real reason is not this. Most probably, NATO
does not want to bear responsibility for the situation in Afghanistan
in the nearest future, wishing to shift responsibility on Russia.
Thereby, Russia's allies will soon understand that CSTO is not a
condition of parasitical existence but a series of commitments to real
military goals.
The U.S. successfully conducts a policy of shifting responsibility in
the Near East where the Americans have let their partners know that
they are now mostly responsible for regional security. In addition,
the countries of the region are major importers of weapon, mostly
American.
In fact, withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan, as well as from Iraq
is the right of NATO and its member states. However, one way or
another, the region is left at the `crossroads of winds' and some
states of Eurasia are already thinking on what will await them in this
situation. Some time later NATO may try to get some partners in
Eurasia but will the leading regional powers participate in the global
system of security?
It is not predictable yet, and small countries do not have clear
perspectives. The countries located outside NATO which have managed to
get the status of new NATO partners will have some advantages. Is NATO
likely to organize a race for this integration?
In any case, withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan will mark the
start of the launch of additional partnership for security. Russia
could also conduct an analogical policy but it will require
considerable costs and it is not clear whether there are enough
resources for these plans. Russia is facing disgrace of CSTO and the
idea of Eurasian Union which would exist successfully if NATO troops
stayed in Afghanistan. No doubt the main goal is disorganization of
Russia's position but what will it cost to its partners?
Igor Muradyan
12:32 06/04/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29533
The presence of NATO in Afghanistan is a key political and life factor
in a vast space and a constant of geopolitics. Despite lots of
unpleasant factors relating to military presence, NATO has become a
center of gravitation of all negative relating to the activities of
insurgents and radicals in the region.
The presence of NATO enabled a number of states, including China,
Russia, Iran and Pakistan, to be in a more or less predictable
situation. After the withdrawal of forces, even partial withdrawal,
NATO will not play its previous role any more.
It is clear that the radical groups will soon extend their activities
and influence into the Eurasian space and nobody will be able to tell
the limits. Will such an organization as Shanghai Cooperation
Organization resolve security issues in Eurasia, and will two leading
powers of this alliance be ready to resolve these issues?
Not a long time ago the NATO-CSTO meeting in Brussels revealed that
NATO is not likely to accelerate cooperation with CSTO. Even if one
assumes that different NATO member states have different attitudes to
the perspective of cooperation with CSTO, and there are NATO member
states which have a radical attitude to this pro-Russian bloc, one way
or another, NATO is not rushing to cooperate.
Some politicians explain it by NATO's reluctance to support the bloc
which Russia uses to control several famous states. However, the
impression is that the real reason is not this. Most probably, NATO
does not want to bear responsibility for the situation in Afghanistan
in the nearest future, wishing to shift responsibility on Russia.
Thereby, Russia's allies will soon understand that CSTO is not a
condition of parasitical existence but a series of commitments to real
military goals.
The U.S. successfully conducts a policy of shifting responsibility in
the Near East where the Americans have let their partners know that
they are now mostly responsible for regional security. In addition,
the countries of the region are major importers of weapon, mostly
American.
In fact, withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan, as well as from Iraq
is the right of NATO and its member states. However, one way or
another, the region is left at the `crossroads of winds' and some
states of Eurasia are already thinking on what will await them in this
situation. Some time later NATO may try to get some partners in
Eurasia but will the leading regional powers participate in the global
system of security?
It is not predictable yet, and small countries do not have clear
perspectives. The countries located outside NATO which have managed to
get the status of new NATO partners will have some advantages. Is NATO
likely to organize a race for this integration?
In any case, withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan will mark the
start of the launch of additional partnership for security. Russia
could also conduct an analogical policy but it will require
considerable costs and it is not clear whether there are enough
resources for these plans. Russia is facing disgrace of CSTO and the
idea of Eurasian Union which would exist successfully if NATO troops
stayed in Afghanistan. No doubt the main goal is disorganization of
Russia's position but what will it cost to its partners?
Igor Muradyan
12:32 06/04/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29533