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Vetsnik Kavkaza, Russia
April 6 2013
Security problems in Armenia
6 April 2013 - 8:06pm
VK talked to political scientist and Director of the Caucasus
Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan about his report entitled "Security
of Armenia: Challenges, Expectations, Realities".
Armenia has actually two neighbors. In fact, there are more on the
map, three more: the two recognized ones are Turkey and Azerbaijan,
the unacknowledged one is Karabakh. But this is not a big deal,
because Turkey and Azerbaijan are not close to Armenia for obvious
reasons, and Karabakh in every sense except the political one, that
is, in the economic, demographic, social, spiritual sense, what you
want - it's actually pretty much a part of Armenia. Accordingly, there
are Georgia and Iran - with the very specific, I would say, format of
Iranian-US relations, and no less specific format of Georgian-Russian
relations. With the utmost importance for Armenia, of course, of the
U.S. and Russia, there is a picture in which Armenia is obliged to act
like Mikoyan from the famous Soviet joke, arriving dry to a Politburo
meeting and saying that he walked between the raindrops. This is a
constant of Armenian foreign policy. It does not depend on any
election year. In the Armenian foreign policy rhetoric it is called
complimentarism. This is the official position. Armenia does not
equate anti-Western and pro-Russian or pro-Western and anti-Russian
and is trying to maintain the policy - that is, every time, doing
something with Iran, we say to the Americans "Look at the map, guys,"
and we say the same thing every time to the Russians doing something
with the Georgians. This is real, and this is a challenge. It does not
depend on the individual, no matter who was elected president of
Armenia in this election, or what you like - it will remain constant.
What is the mode of the formation of Armenian security, the security
of the Republic of Armenia? There are several components. Military and
political cooperation with Russia in the CSTO, i.e. the ability to
provide arms ammunition at affordable prices, this is a Russian
military base in Armenia, which takes challenges existing in the
region associated with third countries, and it is the presence of
quite serious armies in Armenia and Karabakh, which must ensure the
security of a purely military level because of the unresolved
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Politically, this is the format of the
Minsk process, which is much criticized, in my opinion - quite
unfairly. The Minsk process in politics - I'm a political scientist, I
am not a politician, so I can say what I really think - the Minsk
process does not have the goal of resolving the conflict. Resolving
the Karabakh conflict cannot be implemented so far. The parties'
positions diverge so much that compromise is impossible there. We do
not have anything to negotiate. Accordingly, the Minsk process has
three objectives. The first task - I would call it «show must go on».
Negotiations should continue. World experience shows that in the
conflicts in which there is a channel of interaction between the
parties, the situation is developing better than in those that do not
have this channel. The second problem - the process should be
internationalized, so to speak, so in the room there will be not only
Azerbaijani and Armenian, but also American, French and Russian. And
thirdly, we need to continue a peaceful solution to the conflict and
negotiations around it, and the Minsk Group has been performing these
tasks quite well since 1992. Accordingly, the Minsk process will
remain in the sphere of military-political security. Eurasian Economic
Community, the EAC, the CES, the Customs Union - all these many
emerging, very different bodies, with different approaches, media
formats and so on, are not rejected, and we try to combine them with
the formats of the West. There is the format of the Eastern
Partnership. This year for Armenia is very important in this sense. In
November the Vilnius summit will be held, and at the Vilnius summit an
agreement on associate membership in the EU may be initialled.
Negotiations are going on for the deep zone of mutual trade. By June,
there will be the facilitating of the visa regime. These formats are
combined with those that we have with Russia. It's not that easy, but
understanding everywhere, including in Europe, is possible. The
Armenian and not only the Armenian press discusses this quite
violently. These formats are perceived as conflicting. If you follow
the advice of Professor Preobrazhensky and don't read newspapers
before dinner, then at the real political level all is fairly decent.
Most recently, the President of Armenia, the newly-elected but the old
one, before his inauguration visited Moscow, met with Putin. In
general, it seems that the format of cooperation with the Customs
Union and the EAC is quite possible with combining the formats that
exist in other areas. These are our expectations for the next 5 to 7
years. Our challenges are also fairly clear: these are challenges of
regional isolation, communication isolation. There is some hope on the
Abkhaz railway, which is a problem, but there is not zero probability
that in the medium term some minimal opportunities could appear. The
Armenian-Turkish process to date has died, or at least very much
frozen up, I think, until 2014-2015. Again, the chance that somehow it
will be unlocked is zero. At the same time, I think that the chance
that the situation in Iran will be risky is also equal to zero. So the
process that we have now will continue with some of the developments
in different directions. We should not expect anything miraculous. But
the mode or the locus of the policy that exists in our country
concerning external players - again, I go back to the beginning, it
cannot change. It will be more or less the same, and developing it is
the task of the Armenian authorities to date. More integration with
Russia, more integration with Europe, even more integration with the
world around, which is not very easy, but attempts to do so will
continue. .
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
April 6 2013
Security problems in Armenia
6 April 2013 - 8:06pm
VK talked to political scientist and Director of the Caucasus
Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan about his report entitled "Security
of Armenia: Challenges, Expectations, Realities".
Armenia has actually two neighbors. In fact, there are more on the
map, three more: the two recognized ones are Turkey and Azerbaijan,
the unacknowledged one is Karabakh. But this is not a big deal,
because Turkey and Azerbaijan are not close to Armenia for obvious
reasons, and Karabakh in every sense except the political one, that
is, in the economic, demographic, social, spiritual sense, what you
want - it's actually pretty much a part of Armenia. Accordingly, there
are Georgia and Iran - with the very specific, I would say, format of
Iranian-US relations, and no less specific format of Georgian-Russian
relations. With the utmost importance for Armenia, of course, of the
U.S. and Russia, there is a picture in which Armenia is obliged to act
like Mikoyan from the famous Soviet joke, arriving dry to a Politburo
meeting and saying that he walked between the raindrops. This is a
constant of Armenian foreign policy. It does not depend on any
election year. In the Armenian foreign policy rhetoric it is called
complimentarism. This is the official position. Armenia does not
equate anti-Western and pro-Russian or pro-Western and anti-Russian
and is trying to maintain the policy - that is, every time, doing
something with Iran, we say to the Americans "Look at the map, guys,"
and we say the same thing every time to the Russians doing something
with the Georgians. This is real, and this is a challenge. It does not
depend on the individual, no matter who was elected president of
Armenia in this election, or what you like - it will remain constant.
What is the mode of the formation of Armenian security, the security
of the Republic of Armenia? There are several components. Military and
political cooperation with Russia in the CSTO, i.e. the ability to
provide arms ammunition at affordable prices, this is a Russian
military base in Armenia, which takes challenges existing in the
region associated with third countries, and it is the presence of
quite serious armies in Armenia and Karabakh, which must ensure the
security of a purely military level because of the unresolved
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Politically, this is the format of the
Minsk process, which is much criticized, in my opinion - quite
unfairly. The Minsk process in politics - I'm a political scientist, I
am not a politician, so I can say what I really think - the Minsk
process does not have the goal of resolving the conflict. Resolving
the Karabakh conflict cannot be implemented so far. The parties'
positions diverge so much that compromise is impossible there. We do
not have anything to negotiate. Accordingly, the Minsk process has
three objectives. The first task - I would call it «show must go on».
Negotiations should continue. World experience shows that in the
conflicts in which there is a channel of interaction between the
parties, the situation is developing better than in those that do not
have this channel. The second problem - the process should be
internationalized, so to speak, so in the room there will be not only
Azerbaijani and Armenian, but also American, French and Russian. And
thirdly, we need to continue a peaceful solution to the conflict and
negotiations around it, and the Minsk Group has been performing these
tasks quite well since 1992. Accordingly, the Minsk process will
remain in the sphere of military-political security. Eurasian Economic
Community, the EAC, the CES, the Customs Union - all these many
emerging, very different bodies, with different approaches, media
formats and so on, are not rejected, and we try to combine them with
the formats of the West. There is the format of the Eastern
Partnership. This year for Armenia is very important in this sense. In
November the Vilnius summit will be held, and at the Vilnius summit an
agreement on associate membership in the EU may be initialled.
Negotiations are going on for the deep zone of mutual trade. By June,
there will be the facilitating of the visa regime. These formats are
combined with those that we have with Russia. It's not that easy, but
understanding everywhere, including in Europe, is possible. The
Armenian and not only the Armenian press discusses this quite
violently. These formats are perceived as conflicting. If you follow
the advice of Professor Preobrazhensky and don't read newspapers
before dinner, then at the real political level all is fairly decent.
Most recently, the President of Armenia, the newly-elected but the old
one, before his inauguration visited Moscow, met with Putin. In
general, it seems that the format of cooperation with the Customs
Union and the EAC is quite possible with combining the formats that
exist in other areas. These are our expectations for the next 5 to 7
years. Our challenges are also fairly clear: these are challenges of
regional isolation, communication isolation. There is some hope on the
Abkhaz railway, which is a problem, but there is not zero probability
that in the medium term some minimal opportunities could appear. The
Armenian-Turkish process to date has died, or at least very much
frozen up, I think, until 2014-2015. Again, the chance that somehow it
will be unlocked is zero. At the same time, I think that the chance
that the situation in Iran will be risky is also equal to zero. So the
process that we have now will continue with some of the developments
in different directions. We should not expect anything miraculous. But
the mode or the locus of the policy that exists in our country
concerning external players - again, I go back to the beginning, it
cannot change. It will be more or less the same, and developing it is
the task of the Armenian authorities to date. More integration with
Russia, more integration with Europe, even more integration with the
world around, which is not very easy, but attempts to do so will
continue. .
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress