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Can Raffi Hovannisian Lead Our People to `The Promised Land'?
by Michael Mensoian
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/04/06/can-raffi-hovannisian-lead-our-people-to-the-promised-land/
April 6, 2013
The reports from Armenia are both heartening and disappointing. How
can it be both? Indications are that there is a palpable
dissatisfaction on the part of the electorate that is rippling
throughout the country. Only time will tell whether this can properly
be referred to as a groundswell of voter dissatisfaction with respect
to the reelection of President Sarkisian. However, there is no
question that a growing number of young activists have serious
concerns with respect to his reelection. These activists represent an
ever-growing number of young people whose future and that of Armenia
is their iron in the fire. Then we have the energized political
parties that see an opportunity to take on a president they perceive
as being a wounded tiger.
Raffi Hovannisian (Photo by Serouj Aprahamian, The Armenian Weekly)
To begin with, Mr. Sarkisian has been reelected. Although neither
candidate can honestly claim to have received a mandate from the
people, this has not prevented Mr. Hovannisian from making that claim.
Mr. Sarkisian continues to occupy the office of the President of the
Republic of Armenia and has been congratulated on his victory by
substantive foreign leaders who evidently prefer a known to an unknown
chief executive. President Sarkisian still controls a majority in
parliament and is supported by a cadre of apparatchiks and oligarchs
who have their interests to protect.
It has been over a month since President Sarkisian was returned to
office (Feb. 18, 2013 election). Since then Mr. Hovannisian has
visited various parts of Armenia with the message that he won the
election. Given the voting irregularities that were noted, his
supporters have some basis to believe that he is the legitimate
president of Armenia. Yet, how long Mr. Hovannisian can continue this
tour de force? At what point might his claim fail to resonate with the
electorate? It seems his self-esteem is unlimited, but the interests
of the voters in this continuing saga may not be as unlimited. They
still have their daily problems to cope with. The election has not
changed that.
The problem for the opposition is maintaining this voter
dissatisfaction or, should it wane, reenergizing it. Mr. Hovannisian
went on yet another hunger strike in Freedom Square. Accompanying this
decision, evidently made without thinking how it should or would end,
was the following statement: `I will not eat and I will not accept
deception and threats from anyone. If on April 9, Sarkisian takes his
oath on the Holy Bible, and the Catholicos desecrates the Bible and
blesses¦[President Sarkisian] who mocks the people, then it will
happen over my dead body.' He not only challenges the president, but
the Catholicos as well. On one hand he claims to be the legitimate
president of Armenia and on the other hand he is apparently willing to
die to protect his claim. When Mr. Sarkisian is sworn in and is
blessed by the Catholicos, what then? While these theatrics are being
played out, the opposition is without a leader and a plan. If Mr.
Hovannisian wasn't so busy, it should be him. He is the recognized
face of the opposition. He has proven his right to that position.
Holding rallies seems to be his forte. If pure altruism were the
guiding principle that motivated political parties, there would be no
problem. However, there are pragmatic considerations as well that
influence the agendas of these parties. Creating an effective
opposition is not an easy task, as can be seen at this early stage.
Maintaining it is more difficult.
The problem that the opposition faces is that there are two sets of
reforms that must be addressed. One set covers the bread and butter
issues that directly impact the day-to-day life of the people and
their future. These are issues that determine the socioeconomic
wellbeing of the country and the quality of life of its people. One
has to determine whether this public outcry is caused by voting
irregularities per se or against voting irregularities because the
president and his failed policies and programs have been given another
five-year term.
The other set of reforms relate to the systemic changes that must be
achieved through constitutional revisions. These affect the type of
government, the system of justice, and the election process. These are
long-term unless a rapid change in the power structure takes place
through a coup d'état or a revolution. Either process is beyond the
capability or the intent of the opposition. The conundrum facing the
opposition is that the bread and butter issues are dependent in large
measure upon the long-term systemic changes required. It is a `catch
22³ situation. At which end of the rope does the opposition begin to
pull?
The May 5 election of representatives to the city council, which is
the governing body for Yerevan, represents the first assault against
the administration. Wresting control from the Republican Party would
be a significant victory. In the first election (2009) for the 65
seats on what at that time was the newly formed council, about 53
percent of Yerevan's eligible voters participated. The election gave
the Republican Party 47.7 percent of the vote (35 seats) and the right
to name the mayor. The Prosperous Party had 27.7 percent (17 seats)
and the Armenian National Congress 17.4 percent (13 seats). No other
party reached the 7 percent threshold to name a representative. At the
time there were charges of voting irregularities. For the present
election on May 5, 2013, failure to gain control of the council would
deal a serious blow to the reform movement.
Unfortunately, what seemed to be a likely coalition has already
fractured. Each party has decided to name its own slate of
representatives. Good luck to that decision. A coalition could pool
its votes and would only need to reach the 9 percent threshold (7
percent for individual political parties) to name representatives to
the council. This would have been the better course of action given
the results of the first election. If cooperation is elusive here, the
administration has won a victory before the first vote has been cast.
What does this portend for the future when a united front may be an
absolute necessity?
Many of the desired systemic reforms will take time. This requires
long-term commitments by the political parties to carry on an
effective opposition. However, this required commitment is not a
reasonable expectation in Armenia's volatile political environment.
The obvious danger, assuming an effective coalition can be formed, is
the prospect of the administration peeling away an opposition party or
its ability to counter coalition efforts with legislation that can
easily pass in the Republican-dominated parliament. Such legislation,
if beneficial to the electorate, would undermine coalition efforts as
well as its support among the public, in general, or with specific
groups, such as the young political activists. However, if the
coalition's efforts force the administration to be more responsive to
the needs of the people, than that can be viewed as a victory, but it
falls far short of the systemic changes the opposition seeks.
Potential coalition partners have their own unique agendas. While
there will be times where the coalition may feel compelled to support
the administration en bloc, there could be issues where a divided
response occurs. Unfortunately the opposition must operate in a
political environment that can change dramatically because of
unforeseen events, manipulations by the administration, or interparty
disagreements.
There is no easy path to the reforms, whether short-term or long-term,
that must be had. The opposition must hammer away at the
administration's inadequacies, while proposing doable changes to
improve the system of governance and the welfare of the people. The
electorate'urban and rural, young and old'must be educated to
understand the importance of their support and the patience to achieve
the desired objectives. This is the time that will try the resolve of
the coalition partners as well as the electorate. Realistically,
political reforms may be less important to the people than legislation
that has a beneficial impact on their quality of life. How to balance
their support for the former against their greater interest in the
latter is a problem that has to be resolved.
No political party wants to lose an election. However, the voter must
have faith that a political party not only talks their interests, but
is willing to wage the good fight, to win or be bloodied, on their
behalf. Raffi Hovannisian was not only willing to talk their
interests, but also accepted the challenge to face President Sarkisian
knowing full well the obstacles. He proved that he was willing to
fight for their cause. Can the Armenian people ask more from a leader?
The dissatisfaction of the Armenian electorate has been simmering for
a very long time. Mr. Hovannisian has been the catalyst that has
brought this resentment to a boil. Whether or not it succeeds depends
on many variables. One can never say with certainty what the end
result might be.
If Mr. Hovannisian's `people's victory,' which the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF) has publicly accepted, should fail to
gain traction, then the ARF has a duty to fulfill the mission, alone
if necessary. Our party has to decide what it must do, and what it
must do is to be perceived as ready and able to mount the political
ramparts for the people.
In an interview months ago, I was emotionally taken by a thought
expressed by unger Vahan Hovannisian: `Those who do not understand
where my self-confidence, determination, and strength comes from
should remember one word: Dashnaksutyun.' The principles and
philosophy that define the ARF have endured for over 120 years. It is
these eternal values that are the foundation for a system of
governance where freedom, justice, equality, and opportunity exists
for all Armenians irrespective of age, ability, or needs. This is the
moment when our party must be imbued with that same self-confidence,
determination, and strength to carry our flag into battle for our
people and for our mayreni yergir.
by Michael Mensoian
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/04/06/can-raffi-hovannisian-lead-our-people-to-the-promised-land/
April 6, 2013
The reports from Armenia are both heartening and disappointing. How
can it be both? Indications are that there is a palpable
dissatisfaction on the part of the electorate that is rippling
throughout the country. Only time will tell whether this can properly
be referred to as a groundswell of voter dissatisfaction with respect
to the reelection of President Sarkisian. However, there is no
question that a growing number of young activists have serious
concerns with respect to his reelection. These activists represent an
ever-growing number of young people whose future and that of Armenia
is their iron in the fire. Then we have the energized political
parties that see an opportunity to take on a president they perceive
as being a wounded tiger.
Raffi Hovannisian (Photo by Serouj Aprahamian, The Armenian Weekly)
To begin with, Mr. Sarkisian has been reelected. Although neither
candidate can honestly claim to have received a mandate from the
people, this has not prevented Mr. Hovannisian from making that claim.
Mr. Sarkisian continues to occupy the office of the President of the
Republic of Armenia and has been congratulated on his victory by
substantive foreign leaders who evidently prefer a known to an unknown
chief executive. President Sarkisian still controls a majority in
parliament and is supported by a cadre of apparatchiks and oligarchs
who have their interests to protect.
It has been over a month since President Sarkisian was returned to
office (Feb. 18, 2013 election). Since then Mr. Hovannisian has
visited various parts of Armenia with the message that he won the
election. Given the voting irregularities that were noted, his
supporters have some basis to believe that he is the legitimate
president of Armenia. Yet, how long Mr. Hovannisian can continue this
tour de force? At what point might his claim fail to resonate with the
electorate? It seems his self-esteem is unlimited, but the interests
of the voters in this continuing saga may not be as unlimited. They
still have their daily problems to cope with. The election has not
changed that.
The problem for the opposition is maintaining this voter
dissatisfaction or, should it wane, reenergizing it. Mr. Hovannisian
went on yet another hunger strike in Freedom Square. Accompanying this
decision, evidently made without thinking how it should or would end,
was the following statement: `I will not eat and I will not accept
deception and threats from anyone. If on April 9, Sarkisian takes his
oath on the Holy Bible, and the Catholicos desecrates the Bible and
blesses¦[President Sarkisian] who mocks the people, then it will
happen over my dead body.' He not only challenges the president, but
the Catholicos as well. On one hand he claims to be the legitimate
president of Armenia and on the other hand he is apparently willing to
die to protect his claim. When Mr. Sarkisian is sworn in and is
blessed by the Catholicos, what then? While these theatrics are being
played out, the opposition is without a leader and a plan. If Mr.
Hovannisian wasn't so busy, it should be him. He is the recognized
face of the opposition. He has proven his right to that position.
Holding rallies seems to be his forte. If pure altruism were the
guiding principle that motivated political parties, there would be no
problem. However, there are pragmatic considerations as well that
influence the agendas of these parties. Creating an effective
opposition is not an easy task, as can be seen at this early stage.
Maintaining it is more difficult.
The problem that the opposition faces is that there are two sets of
reforms that must be addressed. One set covers the bread and butter
issues that directly impact the day-to-day life of the people and
their future. These are issues that determine the socioeconomic
wellbeing of the country and the quality of life of its people. One
has to determine whether this public outcry is caused by voting
irregularities per se or against voting irregularities because the
president and his failed policies and programs have been given another
five-year term.
The other set of reforms relate to the systemic changes that must be
achieved through constitutional revisions. These affect the type of
government, the system of justice, and the election process. These are
long-term unless a rapid change in the power structure takes place
through a coup d'état or a revolution. Either process is beyond the
capability or the intent of the opposition. The conundrum facing the
opposition is that the bread and butter issues are dependent in large
measure upon the long-term systemic changes required. It is a `catch
22³ situation. At which end of the rope does the opposition begin to
pull?
The May 5 election of representatives to the city council, which is
the governing body for Yerevan, represents the first assault against
the administration. Wresting control from the Republican Party would
be a significant victory. In the first election (2009) for the 65
seats on what at that time was the newly formed council, about 53
percent of Yerevan's eligible voters participated. The election gave
the Republican Party 47.7 percent of the vote (35 seats) and the right
to name the mayor. The Prosperous Party had 27.7 percent (17 seats)
and the Armenian National Congress 17.4 percent (13 seats). No other
party reached the 7 percent threshold to name a representative. At the
time there were charges of voting irregularities. For the present
election on May 5, 2013, failure to gain control of the council would
deal a serious blow to the reform movement.
Unfortunately, what seemed to be a likely coalition has already
fractured. Each party has decided to name its own slate of
representatives. Good luck to that decision. A coalition could pool
its votes and would only need to reach the 9 percent threshold (7
percent for individual political parties) to name representatives to
the council. This would have been the better course of action given
the results of the first election. If cooperation is elusive here, the
administration has won a victory before the first vote has been cast.
What does this portend for the future when a united front may be an
absolute necessity?
Many of the desired systemic reforms will take time. This requires
long-term commitments by the political parties to carry on an
effective opposition. However, this required commitment is not a
reasonable expectation in Armenia's volatile political environment.
The obvious danger, assuming an effective coalition can be formed, is
the prospect of the administration peeling away an opposition party or
its ability to counter coalition efforts with legislation that can
easily pass in the Republican-dominated parliament. Such legislation,
if beneficial to the electorate, would undermine coalition efforts as
well as its support among the public, in general, or with specific
groups, such as the young political activists. However, if the
coalition's efforts force the administration to be more responsive to
the needs of the people, than that can be viewed as a victory, but it
falls far short of the systemic changes the opposition seeks.
Potential coalition partners have their own unique agendas. While
there will be times where the coalition may feel compelled to support
the administration en bloc, there could be issues where a divided
response occurs. Unfortunately the opposition must operate in a
political environment that can change dramatically because of
unforeseen events, manipulations by the administration, or interparty
disagreements.
There is no easy path to the reforms, whether short-term or long-term,
that must be had. The opposition must hammer away at the
administration's inadequacies, while proposing doable changes to
improve the system of governance and the welfare of the people. The
electorate'urban and rural, young and old'must be educated to
understand the importance of their support and the patience to achieve
the desired objectives. This is the time that will try the resolve of
the coalition partners as well as the electorate. Realistically,
political reforms may be less important to the people than legislation
that has a beneficial impact on their quality of life. How to balance
their support for the former against their greater interest in the
latter is a problem that has to be resolved.
No political party wants to lose an election. However, the voter must
have faith that a political party not only talks their interests, but
is willing to wage the good fight, to win or be bloodied, on their
behalf. Raffi Hovannisian was not only willing to talk their
interests, but also accepted the challenge to face President Sarkisian
knowing full well the obstacles. He proved that he was willing to
fight for their cause. Can the Armenian people ask more from a leader?
The dissatisfaction of the Armenian electorate has been simmering for
a very long time. Mr. Hovannisian has been the catalyst that has
brought this resentment to a boil. Whether or not it succeeds depends
on many variables. One can never say with certainty what the end
result might be.
If Mr. Hovannisian's `people's victory,' which the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF) has publicly accepted, should fail to
gain traction, then the ARF has a duty to fulfill the mission, alone
if necessary. Our party has to decide what it must do, and what it
must do is to be perceived as ready and able to mount the political
ramparts for the people.
In an interview months ago, I was emotionally taken by a thought
expressed by unger Vahan Hovannisian: `Those who do not understand
where my self-confidence, determination, and strength comes from
should remember one word: Dashnaksutyun.' The principles and
philosophy that define the ARF have endured for over 120 years. It is
these eternal values that are the foundation for a system of
governance where freedom, justice, equality, and opportunity exists
for all Armenians irrespective of age, ability, or needs. This is the
moment when our party must be imbued with that same self-confidence,
determination, and strength to carry our flag into battle for our
people and for our mayreni yergir.