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WHAT'S NEXT AFTER THE KURDISH ISSUE: SYRIA AND ARMENIA?
Today's Zaman, Turkey
April 9 2013
When terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) leader
Abdullah Ocalan called on the PKK to lay down arms during the Nevruz
festivities in Diyarbakır, debates about the settlement process became
hotter and many people started to put forward the idea that the
settlement of the PKK issue will play into Turkey's hands in both
domestic and foreign policy in the short term. The expectation that
having solved its 30-year-old terror problem through peaceful methods,
Turkey will be able to solve its foreign policy issues with a new
momentum is closely associated with the interests of not only Turkey,
but also of neighboring countries and international organizations.
It is thought that, in addition to the new process launched in
connection with the Kurdish issue, solution processes concerning the
ongoing Syrian crisis and the frozen normalization initiative with
Armenia are on the government's agenda. The problems Turkey has been
wrestling with at great cost in connection with the Syrian crisis are
appreciated by the Western countries, but they have so far failed to
come up with a strategy for a solution. It is hard to guess how the
call on the PKK to withdraw from Turkey will affect Turkey's Syria
policy, but Turkey has to develop a foreign policy that supports
common interests in connection with the Kurdish entities that are
growing stronger within the context of the "Greater Middle East"
fancies. On the other hand, solving the Syrian issue in the shortest
time possible and in the interests of Turkey will further boost the
progress made on the Kurdish issue. This would also show that Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's frequently criticized "zero problems and
maximum cooperation" formula is not a political move doomed to
failure.
Another thing that will ward of unfair criticisms hurled at Turkish
foreign policy in the short term and will dispel Turkey's image as a
country that is in eternal conflict with its neighbors is the process
of normalization with Armenia. According to the dissident groups
inside Turkey who stick to the Turkey-centric perspective, the
Armenian economy is failing and therefore, Turkey should maintain
policies to preserve the status quo and never make compromises.
However, from an external perspective, it is clear that Turkish
foreign policy has failed in connection with the Armenian issue and
Turkey's image as a country that refrains from making peace is making
more and more people perceive Turkey as wrong even when it is right.
Therefore, Turkey must take radical steps on the Armenian issue as it
did with regard to the Kurdish issue in order to ensure peace in the
region and carve itself more room to maneuver in the international
arena, particularly in the context of the approaching 100th
anniversary of the 1915 incidents. Approaches that dispense with old
habits will shake up the status quo and make the Turkish economy
stronger in the Caucasus region and give Turkish foreign policy an
advantage in the same region.
Turkey's normalization with Armenia to undermine influence of Russia and Iran
Today, Russian analysts noted that Turkey's influence in the Caucasus
was thwarted thanks to its freezing of ties with Armenia and in place
of Turkey, Iran and other regional players are increasing their
influence in the Caucasus. They also voice concerns that Turkey's
normalization of relations with Armenia will undermine Russia's and
Iran's influence in the region. Stressing that it is worrying to see
increased anti-Russian and anti-Iranian sentiments in Armenia, these
analysts maintain that the Armenian opposition that advocates good
ties with Turkey is doomed to fail. Indeed, the opposition groups are
growing stronger in Armenia and accuse the Armenian government of
making the country a satellite of Russia and they are worried about
the increasing Iranian influence in the country. In this context, the
Dashnak Party harshly criticized the Armenian government for leasing a
parcel of grasslands in Syunik province to Iran, noting that they
don't need the agricultural tools Iran will provide as rent.
Armenia has no choice but to develop its economic and military ties
with Russia and Iran and its increasing dependence on these two
countries is posing a threat to Turkey's security as Russia reinforces
its military presence near Turkish borders. As new Defense Minister of
Russia, Sergey Shoigu stressed during his visit to Armenia on the 21st
anniversary of the founding of the Armenian army, Russia sees its
military presence in the region as indispensable.
Turkey's normalization processes, as well as the joint actions it will
adopt in cooperation with Baku surrounding the centennial of the
events of 1915, are of crucial importance. Yet Baku should be more
constructive, instead of reacting to every step Turkey takes in the
normalization process. For instance, Azerbaijan should motivate Turkey
instead of hurling harsh criticism regarding the initiative to launch
flights between Yerevan and Van in April, which was then aborted, like
previous initiatives. Turkey has never ceased to disapprove of or
criticize the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, and in this
context, it shut down its border crossings in response. Like this
policy, Baku's Nagorno-Karabakh policy has also failed to produce any
result. For this reason, stereotyped criticisms of Turkey's moves to
reinforce its presence in the region are doing harm to Turkish foreign
policy. Different approaches should be adopted and the old and failing
policies should be avoided.
The first thing to do in the current atmosphere of the settlement of
the Kurdish issue is to correctly analyze the developments that are of
close interest to Turkey and to identify and take the necessary steps
at once. Only in this way can Turkey implement the successful policies
that would ward off the criticism voiced by western countries and
opponents against Davutoglu's zero problems formula.
*Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is a Strategic Outlook analyst.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-312138-whats-next-after-the-kurdish-issue-syria-and-armeniaby-mehmet-fatih-oztarsu-.html
Today's Zaman, Turkey
April 9 2013
When terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers' Party's (PKK) leader
Abdullah Ocalan called on the PKK to lay down arms during the Nevruz
festivities in Diyarbakır, debates about the settlement process became
hotter and many people started to put forward the idea that the
settlement of the PKK issue will play into Turkey's hands in both
domestic and foreign policy in the short term. The expectation that
having solved its 30-year-old terror problem through peaceful methods,
Turkey will be able to solve its foreign policy issues with a new
momentum is closely associated with the interests of not only Turkey,
but also of neighboring countries and international organizations.
It is thought that, in addition to the new process launched in
connection with the Kurdish issue, solution processes concerning the
ongoing Syrian crisis and the frozen normalization initiative with
Armenia are on the government's agenda. The problems Turkey has been
wrestling with at great cost in connection with the Syrian crisis are
appreciated by the Western countries, but they have so far failed to
come up with a strategy for a solution. It is hard to guess how the
call on the PKK to withdraw from Turkey will affect Turkey's Syria
policy, but Turkey has to develop a foreign policy that supports
common interests in connection with the Kurdish entities that are
growing stronger within the context of the "Greater Middle East"
fancies. On the other hand, solving the Syrian issue in the shortest
time possible and in the interests of Turkey will further boost the
progress made on the Kurdish issue. This would also show that Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's frequently criticized "zero problems and
maximum cooperation" formula is not a political move doomed to
failure.
Another thing that will ward of unfair criticisms hurled at Turkish
foreign policy in the short term and will dispel Turkey's image as a
country that is in eternal conflict with its neighbors is the process
of normalization with Armenia. According to the dissident groups
inside Turkey who stick to the Turkey-centric perspective, the
Armenian economy is failing and therefore, Turkey should maintain
policies to preserve the status quo and never make compromises.
However, from an external perspective, it is clear that Turkish
foreign policy has failed in connection with the Armenian issue and
Turkey's image as a country that refrains from making peace is making
more and more people perceive Turkey as wrong even when it is right.
Therefore, Turkey must take radical steps on the Armenian issue as it
did with regard to the Kurdish issue in order to ensure peace in the
region and carve itself more room to maneuver in the international
arena, particularly in the context of the approaching 100th
anniversary of the 1915 incidents. Approaches that dispense with old
habits will shake up the status quo and make the Turkish economy
stronger in the Caucasus region and give Turkish foreign policy an
advantage in the same region.
Turkey's normalization with Armenia to undermine influence of Russia and Iran
Today, Russian analysts noted that Turkey's influence in the Caucasus
was thwarted thanks to its freezing of ties with Armenia and in place
of Turkey, Iran and other regional players are increasing their
influence in the Caucasus. They also voice concerns that Turkey's
normalization of relations with Armenia will undermine Russia's and
Iran's influence in the region. Stressing that it is worrying to see
increased anti-Russian and anti-Iranian sentiments in Armenia, these
analysts maintain that the Armenian opposition that advocates good
ties with Turkey is doomed to fail. Indeed, the opposition groups are
growing stronger in Armenia and accuse the Armenian government of
making the country a satellite of Russia and they are worried about
the increasing Iranian influence in the country. In this context, the
Dashnak Party harshly criticized the Armenian government for leasing a
parcel of grasslands in Syunik province to Iran, noting that they
don't need the agricultural tools Iran will provide as rent.
Armenia has no choice but to develop its economic and military ties
with Russia and Iran and its increasing dependence on these two
countries is posing a threat to Turkey's security as Russia reinforces
its military presence near Turkish borders. As new Defense Minister of
Russia, Sergey Shoigu stressed during his visit to Armenia on the 21st
anniversary of the founding of the Armenian army, Russia sees its
military presence in the region as indispensable.
Turkey's normalization processes, as well as the joint actions it will
adopt in cooperation with Baku surrounding the centennial of the
events of 1915, are of crucial importance. Yet Baku should be more
constructive, instead of reacting to every step Turkey takes in the
normalization process. For instance, Azerbaijan should motivate Turkey
instead of hurling harsh criticism regarding the initiative to launch
flights between Yerevan and Van in April, which was then aborted, like
previous initiatives. Turkey has never ceased to disapprove of or
criticize the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, and in this
context, it shut down its border crossings in response. Like this
policy, Baku's Nagorno-Karabakh policy has also failed to produce any
result. For this reason, stereotyped criticisms of Turkey's moves to
reinforce its presence in the region are doing harm to Turkish foreign
policy. Different approaches should be adopted and the old and failing
policies should be avoided.
The first thing to do in the current atmosphere of the settlement of
the Kurdish issue is to correctly analyze the developments that are of
close interest to Turkey and to identify and take the necessary steps
at once. Only in this way can Turkey implement the successful policies
that would ward off the criticism voiced by western countries and
opponents against Davutoglu's zero problems formula.
*Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu is a Strategic Outlook analyst.
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-312138-whats-next-after-the-kurdish-issue-syria-and-armeniaby-mehmet-fatih-oztarsu-.html