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AZERBAIJAN MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TURKEY AS 2015 NEARS
Today's Zaman, Turkey
April 9, 2013 Tuesday 11:46 AM EST
Turkey's Caucasus policy is considered a failure, particularly within
the context of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's 'zero problems with
neighbors' as Turkey has always paid special attention to bilateral
relations with Azerbaijan while simultaneously overlooking Armenia on
its foreign agenda, a policy that has complicated relations between
Ankara and Yerevan so much that this move can be a threat while heading
into 2015, a particularly sensitive year in Turkish-Armenian relations.
Relations with Azerbaijan are the backbone of Turkey's Caucasus policy
and solidarity between the two nations is considerably robust, with
Azerbaijan having strong leverage over Turkey's regional policies,
especially over its discourse with Armenia. 'The suspension of the
flights between Van and Yerevan is very important in this case, as
it is largely a consequence of Azerbaijan's pressure on Turkey,'
Kavus Abushov, an Azerbaijani expert on international relations,
said in an interview with Sunday's Zaman from Baku.
Turkey recently canceled scheduled flights which were due to begin on
April 3 between Van, a city in eastern Turkey, and Armenia's capital,
Yerevan. The Van-Yerevan flights would have been critical as the
twice-weekly flights by BoraJet, the first Turkish carrier flying
to Armenia, would have connected Armenians to what they call their
'historical homeland.' The flights were also encouraged by Turkey's
reconciliation moves with Armenia and were meant to boost bilateral
tourism and trade. They were reportedly suspended following opposition
from Azerbaijan, Turkey's strategic ally in the region. Turkish
authorities have confirmed the fact, but have avoided providing
further details.
'The suspension also demonstrates Azerbaijan's potential for leverage
over Turkey's policies towards the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,' Abushov
said, adding that any improvements in Turkish-Armenian rapprochement
policy would make Turkey's embargo of Armenia 'symbolic.' Azerbaijan
and Armenia have had no diplomatic ties since the early 1990s, when
Armenia together with Russian forces occupied Azerbaijani territories,
including the predominantly Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh and
seven adjacent predominantly Azeri-populated territories. To support
its ally, Azerbaijan, Turkey closed its land border with Armenia.
Currently, together with Baku, Ankara has attempted to economically
isolate Armenia by omitting Yerevan from regional economic projects,
considering it a major incentive to peacefully reach a deal over the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has been in a deadlock for more than
two decades.
In fact, the Turkish move for rapprochement with Armenia, which
was initiated by President Abdullah Gul's 'soccer diplomacy,' was
aimed at changing the status quo and finding a peaceful solution
to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Ankara justified its efforts of
rapprochement to Baku on the grounds that increasing engagement with
Armenia in regional politics could sway the country into ending the
Nagorno-Karabakh deadlock. Turkey's argumentation for mending ties
with Armenia by signing the Zurich protocols in Switzerland in 2009
was that the economic isolation of Armenia in the region had not
produced any progress overall in the peace process.
Canceled Van-Yerevan flights a blow to Turkish-Armenian ties
Turkey can perhaps revive the process by engaging and influencing
Armenia more, but for this Turkey needs to normalize its relations
with Armenia.
'The suspension of the Van-Yerevan flights before they even got off
the ground are a blow to normalization between Turkey and Armenia
and evidence of Azerbaijan's influence on Turkey's Caucasus policy,'
said Sabine Freizer, the Istanbul-based director of the International
Crisis Group's (ICG) Europe Program, adding that until now Ankara
has often said that it will not intervene in the efforts of private
business working in the South Caucasus, be it in Armenia or any other
space. 'However, here the government apparently strongly discouraged
BoraJet from initiating the Van-Yerevan flight route.'
Baku delivered its gratitude to Ankara on Wednesday when Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Elman Abdullayev said Turkey's
decision showed outstanding support for Azerbaijan. Calling Armenia
'an aggressive state in Azerbaijan's neighborhood,' Abdullayev said,
'Ankara's pressure on Yerevan is necessary.' While it is understandable
that Turkey should support its political and economic ally Azerbaijan
on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Turkey cannot ignore its own strategic
interests in the South Caucasus, with Armenia and Armenians who are
Turkish citizens, and the Armenian diaspora, according to Freizer.
One of Turkey's key dates, 2015, is getting closer for all Armenians
around the world to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the so-called
Armenian genocide as Armenia claims the 1915 deportation of Armenians
by the Ottomans was a genocide in which 1.5 million Armenians were
killed, saying the incident was an act of ethnic cleansing and in
turn want it to be internationally recognized as genocide. However,
Turkey, which sees the allegations of genocide as a threat to its
national honor, says the killings were not intentionally perpetrated
to eradicate a particular ethnicity but were the result of the
wartime conditions during World War I. Commenting on the approaching
centennial of the 1915 incidents, Freizer says the Turkish government
should consider commemorating the event by sharing the pain with the
Armenians, and ideally issuing a sincere apology. 'This is Turkey's
responsibility and not something Azerbaijan needs to worry about.'
At long last, normalized Turkey-Armenia relations are in favor of
peace and stability in the South Caucasus. Diplomatic ties established
between Turkey and Armenia will open Armenia's border gates to Turkish
business and long-term investments and also transport routes, which
will push Yerevan to cooperate politically with Ankara and to welcome
its greater role in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Today's Zaman, Turkey
April 9, 2013 Tuesday 11:46 AM EST
Turkey's Caucasus policy is considered a failure, particularly within
the context of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's 'zero problems with
neighbors' as Turkey has always paid special attention to bilateral
relations with Azerbaijan while simultaneously overlooking Armenia on
its foreign agenda, a policy that has complicated relations between
Ankara and Yerevan so much that this move can be a threat while heading
into 2015, a particularly sensitive year in Turkish-Armenian relations.
Relations with Azerbaijan are the backbone of Turkey's Caucasus policy
and solidarity between the two nations is considerably robust, with
Azerbaijan having strong leverage over Turkey's regional policies,
especially over its discourse with Armenia. 'The suspension of the
flights between Van and Yerevan is very important in this case, as
it is largely a consequence of Azerbaijan's pressure on Turkey,'
Kavus Abushov, an Azerbaijani expert on international relations,
said in an interview with Sunday's Zaman from Baku.
Turkey recently canceled scheduled flights which were due to begin on
April 3 between Van, a city in eastern Turkey, and Armenia's capital,
Yerevan. The Van-Yerevan flights would have been critical as the
twice-weekly flights by BoraJet, the first Turkish carrier flying
to Armenia, would have connected Armenians to what they call their
'historical homeland.' The flights were also encouraged by Turkey's
reconciliation moves with Armenia and were meant to boost bilateral
tourism and trade. They were reportedly suspended following opposition
from Azerbaijan, Turkey's strategic ally in the region. Turkish
authorities have confirmed the fact, but have avoided providing
further details.
'The suspension also demonstrates Azerbaijan's potential for leverage
over Turkey's policies towards the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,' Abushov
said, adding that any improvements in Turkish-Armenian rapprochement
policy would make Turkey's embargo of Armenia 'symbolic.' Azerbaijan
and Armenia have had no diplomatic ties since the early 1990s, when
Armenia together with Russian forces occupied Azerbaijani territories,
including the predominantly Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh and
seven adjacent predominantly Azeri-populated territories. To support
its ally, Azerbaijan, Turkey closed its land border with Armenia.
Currently, together with Baku, Ankara has attempted to economically
isolate Armenia by omitting Yerevan from regional economic projects,
considering it a major incentive to peacefully reach a deal over the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has been in a deadlock for more than
two decades.
In fact, the Turkish move for rapprochement with Armenia, which
was initiated by President Abdullah Gul's 'soccer diplomacy,' was
aimed at changing the status quo and finding a peaceful solution
to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Ankara justified its efforts of
rapprochement to Baku on the grounds that increasing engagement with
Armenia in regional politics could sway the country into ending the
Nagorno-Karabakh deadlock. Turkey's argumentation for mending ties
with Armenia by signing the Zurich protocols in Switzerland in 2009
was that the economic isolation of Armenia in the region had not
produced any progress overall in the peace process.
Canceled Van-Yerevan flights a blow to Turkish-Armenian ties
Turkey can perhaps revive the process by engaging and influencing
Armenia more, but for this Turkey needs to normalize its relations
with Armenia.
'The suspension of the Van-Yerevan flights before they even got off
the ground are a blow to normalization between Turkey and Armenia
and evidence of Azerbaijan's influence on Turkey's Caucasus policy,'
said Sabine Freizer, the Istanbul-based director of the International
Crisis Group's (ICG) Europe Program, adding that until now Ankara
has often said that it will not intervene in the efforts of private
business working in the South Caucasus, be it in Armenia or any other
space. 'However, here the government apparently strongly discouraged
BoraJet from initiating the Van-Yerevan flight route.'
Baku delivered its gratitude to Ankara on Wednesday when Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Elman Abdullayev said Turkey's
decision showed outstanding support for Azerbaijan. Calling Armenia
'an aggressive state in Azerbaijan's neighborhood,' Abdullayev said,
'Ankara's pressure on Yerevan is necessary.' While it is understandable
that Turkey should support its political and economic ally Azerbaijan
on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Turkey cannot ignore its own strategic
interests in the South Caucasus, with Armenia and Armenians who are
Turkish citizens, and the Armenian diaspora, according to Freizer.
One of Turkey's key dates, 2015, is getting closer for all Armenians
around the world to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the so-called
Armenian genocide as Armenia claims the 1915 deportation of Armenians
by the Ottomans was a genocide in which 1.5 million Armenians were
killed, saying the incident was an act of ethnic cleansing and in
turn want it to be internationally recognized as genocide. However,
Turkey, which sees the allegations of genocide as a threat to its
national honor, says the killings were not intentionally perpetrated
to eradicate a particular ethnicity but were the result of the
wartime conditions during World War I. Commenting on the approaching
centennial of the 1915 incidents, Freizer says the Turkish government
should consider commemorating the event by sharing the pain with the
Armenians, and ideally issuing a sincere apology. 'This is Turkey's
responsibility and not something Azerbaijan needs to worry about.'
At long last, normalized Turkey-Armenia relations are in favor of
peace and stability in the South Caucasus. Diplomatic ties established
between Turkey and Armenia will open Armenia's border gates to Turkish
business and long-term investments and also transport routes, which
will push Yerevan to cooperate politically with Ankara and to welcome
its greater role in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.