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CONGRESS, 2014 ELECTION AND GENOCIDE CENTENARY
by Taniel Koushakjian
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2013-04-10-congress-2014-election-and-genocide-centenary-
Published: Wednesday April 10, 2013
Obama address a joint session of Congress. Wikimedia
WASHINGTON - With the House of Representatives remaining in Republican
control and the Senate and White House again in Democratic hands,
another session of a divided Congress began on January 3, 2013. Major
domestic issues facing Americans will be the top priority for the
113th Congress, most likely stretching into the 114th Congress and
potentially even beyond that. Immigration reform, tax reform, job
creation, deficit reduction, reducing gun violence, civil liberties for
the LGBT community, and women's rights all top the agenda for elected
officials, rightfully so. But foreign policy, international religious
freedom and human rights issues have the potential to grab headlines,
especially in light of the U.S. draw down in Afghanistan, the effects
of the Arab Spring, and the civil war in Syria have all shown. Every
one of these issues, domestic and foreign, impact Armenian-Americans
in some way, thus begging the question: In this polarized political
climate and with a laundry list of serious problems facing Congress
and the White House, what does this mean for Armenian-Americans two
years away from the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide?
Congressman John Boehner (R-OH) was re-elected to serve as Speaker
of the House of Representatives for the 113th Congress. Reps. Eric
Cantor (R-VA) and Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) were re-elected to serve
as Majority Leader and Majority Whip, respectively. Rep. Paul Ryan
(R-WI), the Republican Vice Presidential nominee and a leader in the
House Republican Conference, was re-elected to his House seat and will
remain the Chairman of the powerful Budget Committee. Leader Cantor and
Chairman Ryan sit on the Armenian Caucus and, together with McCarthy,
have all cosponsored Armenian Genocide resolutions. On the Democratic
side, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Minority Whip Steny
Hoyer (D-MD) also resumed their posts. Pelosi and Hoyer also sit on
the Armenian Caucus and have decades-long records on Armenian issues
in Congress. Democrats gained 12 seats in the last election leaving
Republicans in control of the chamber by a narrower margin, 232-200.
Two seats are currently vacant and impact Armenian issues: Illinois'
2nd district where, despite his re-election last November, Armenian
Caucus Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL) resigned, plead guilty and
currently faces up to five years in prison for his personal use of
campaign funds; and South Carolina's 1st district where Rep. Tim Scott
(R-SC) was appointed to the U.S. Senate to fill the seat vacated by
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Former Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) resigned
in 2009 after admitting to an extramarital affair and is running
to win back his old House seat. In 2000, then-Congressman Sanford
was a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee (then called
the House International Relations Committee) and voted YES during
the committee vote on the Armenian Genocide resolution. Last week,
Sanford won the Republican primary and will face Democrat Elizabeth
Colbert Bush, the sister of popular comedian Stephen Colbert. Although
the South Carolina 1st seat is heavily Republican (Mitt Romney carried
the district over President Obama 58-40), Colbert Bush is waging a
strong campaign and is in a statistical tie with Sanford according to
a recent poll. The special elections in Illinois and South Carolina
will be held on April 9, and May 7, 2013, respectively.
For the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) also reassumed their posts. Both
Reid and McConnell have significant records in support of Armenian
issues. Reid is considered a champion of Armenian issues, having
cosponsored successive Armenian Genocide resolutions. Last year,
the Armenian National Committee of America honored Senator Reid
for championing Armenian issues. In August 1997, Senator McConnell
travelled to Armenia and two years later led the charge against
a pro-Azerbaijan amendment proposed by then-Senator Sam Brownback
(R-KS) that would have repealed Section 907 of the Freedom Support
Act (Public Law 102-511), which bars direct U.S. military aid to
Azerbaijan given the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Azerbaijan
(1988-1990), the ensuing Nagorno-Karabakh War (1991-1994), and
Azerbaijan's blockade of Armenia (1994-Present). Although McConnell
was successful in defeating the amendment and protecting Armenia,
a watered down version of Brownback's amendment eventually came to
pass in 2001, granting the President the authority to waive Section
907 and provide U.S. military assistance to Azerbaijan, which the
President has since done on an annual basis. Democrats gained two
seats in the Senate in 2012 and now control the chamber 55-45 (two
Independent Senators caucus with Democrats).
Like the previous Congress, both Republican and Democratic leaders
in the 113th Congress each have strong records in support of
Armenian-American issues, specifically Senate Majority Leader Reid,
Senate Minority Leader McConnell, House Majority Leader Cantor, House
Majority Whip McCarthy, House Budget Chairman Ryan, House Minority
Leader Pelosi and House Minority Whip Hoyer.
Looking at the House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC), the committee
of jurisdiction for the Armenian Genocide resolution, Rep. Ileana
Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) is term limited according to House Republican
Conference rules, stepped down as chairman of the committee, but
will remain on as the Subcommittee Chair for the Middle East and
North Africa. As FLArmenians previously reported, Ros-Lehtinen has
an inconsistent record on Armenian issues, having voted YES on the
Armenian Genocide resolution in 2000 and 2005, but NO in 2007 and
2010. She also sits on both the Armenian and Turkish Caucus. With
Ros-Lehtinen's transition, Armenian Caucus Co-Chair Rep. Ed Royce
(R-CA) has taken the gavel as Chairman for the 113th Congress, with
pro-Armenia Rep. Elliot Engel (D-NY) serving as Ranking Member. Tied
with California, Florida Representatives account for the largest
delegation serving on the HFAC (7 out of 46) namely Ros-Lehtinen,
and Reps. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Trey Radel (R-FL), Ted Yoho (R-FL),
Ted Deutch (D-FL), Alan Grayson (D-FL) and Lois Frankel (D-FL).
Hellenic Caucus Co-Chair and Armenian Caucus member Rep. Gus Bilirakis
(R-FL) is no longer serving on HFAC. In addition to Bilirakis,
pro-Armenian Representatives departing the HFAC in 113th Congress
include Reps. Donald Manzullo (R-IL), Howard Berman (D-CA), Allyson
Schwartz (D-PA), and Christopher Murphy (D-CT). Congressman Manzullo
(R-IL), who voted YES on Armenian Genocide resolution votes in
committee in 2007 and 2010, lost a bitter primary battle. Due to
redistricting, he was forced to run against his fellow Republican
colleague and Turkish Caucus Member Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). In an
unusual move, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor got involved in
the race. Cantor publicly endorsed Kinzinger over Manzullo, donated
$10,000 to him from his leadership PAC while "The YG Action Fund"
Super PAC - run by a former Cantor aide - spent $52,000 on a radio ad
boosting Kinzinger," according to a report in Roll Call. Furthermore,
Kinzinger received $6,500 from Turkish PACs last cycle, a bet that
seems to have paid off. HFAC Ranking Member Howard Berman was also a
victim of redistricting, where he lost his seat to fellow Democratic
colleague Brad Sherman (D-CA). As FLArmenians reported last year, the
Berman-Sherman race was sure to grab national headlines, and it did.
In addition to both sides spending a record $16 million, at one point
the two Congressmen almost got into a physical altercation during a
town hall debate. Armenian Caucus member Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA)
easily won re-election last year, but will not sit on the HFAC in the
113th Congress. According to a report in the Philadelphia Inquirer,
Rep. Schwartz is interested in leaving her House seat behind in a
run for Governor in 2014. Armenian Caucus member Christopher Murphy
(D-CT) did not seek re-election last year, and instead successfully
ran for Senate where he replaced retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT).
Pro-Turkey members departing the HFAC in the 113th Congress include
Reps. Dan Burton (R-IN), Mike Pence (R-IN), Connie Mack (R-FL), Jean
Schmidt (R-OH), and Russ Carnahan (D-MO). Congressman Burton announced
his retirement last year and did not seek re-election. In February,
Burton was named chairman of the board of the Azerbaijan American
Alliance. Rep. Pence was elected Governor of Indiana last year,
while Congressman Mack unsuccessfully ran for the Florida Senate,
giving up his House seat in the process. Both Reps. Jean Schmidt
and Russ Carnahan lost their respective party primary election and
were not even on the ballot in November. However, the circumstances
surrounding Jean Schmidt's stunning primary loss, as well as the loss
of her two-time opponent, Armenian-American David Krikorian (D-OH),
warrants a deeper look. As FLArmenians reported last year, Schmidt
and Krikorian faced off at the ballot box in 2008 and 2010, and in an
Ohio election courtroom in 2011. A number of factors contributed to
Schmidt's ousting in addition to her ethics woes: she was an incumbent,
was opposed by the Tea-Party, she had new territory in her district
as a result of redistricting, and she did very little campaigning to
keep her job, if at all. In fact, on the day of the primary election,
Schmidt wasn't even in Ohio; she was in Washington, D.C. attending a
private luncheon with Turkey's Ambassador to the United States Namik
Tan, according to a report in POLITICO. In August 2011 the House
Ethics Committee ordered Schmidt to repay the more than $500,000 she
"unknowingly accepted" to the Turkish Coalition of America when she
was found guilty of accepting the free legal services as an improper
gift, but cleared of wrongdoing. To date, Schmidt has only made one
payment toward her debt. However, since she is no longer serving in
Congress she gets to "cleanly walk away from this," the Dayton Daily
News reported. As for Krikorian, he too lost his primary battle,
but the writing wasn't so much on the wall for him as it was for
Schmidt. William R. Smith, a local truck driver and political unknown
who spent no money and did no campaigning whatsoever trumped Krikorian
by 59 votes out of roughly 20,000 cast. Kirkorian campaigned hard,
raised money, travelled the district and had the backing of the local
and state Democratic Party. However, a report in USATODAY attributes
Krikorian's upset to a last minute effort by a mysterious Super PAC
that sponsored a number of robo-calls encouraging voters to back Smith.
Today, nine of the 46 members of the HFAC sit on the Armenian Caucus,
whereas 13 sit on the Turkish Caucus. Nearly half of the HFAC in the
113th Congress are freshman (22) and it is not yet clear who will
join the Armenian or Turkish Caucus. Technically a member of the 113th
freshman class, Rep. Alan Grayson, served in Congress from 2008-2010
and was an original cosponsor of the Armenian Genocide resolution.
Also, despite the fact that Congressman Deutch has never cosponsored
the Armenian Genocide resolution, he did vote YES during the successful
committee vote in 2010.
Congresswoman Ros-Lehtinen was also appointed to the House Rules
Committee in the 113th Congress, a top leadership body that oversees
what legislation is actually brought up and passed by the House of
Representatives. This committee is significant should any legislation
reaffirming the United States Record on the Armenian Genocide be
brought to the floor for a vote in the run up to 2015. In fact,
Florida currently holds four out of the 13-committee seats, which
also includes Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL), who helped lead Democratic
efforts to defeat the Armenian Genocide resolution in 2007. Last year,
the Turkish Coalition of America sponsored a trip for Ros-Lehtinen
to Turkey, where she was reunited with her Turkish relatives. Looking
ahead, Turkish Caucus Co-Chair and Rules Committee Vice-Chairman Rep.
Virginia Foxx (R-NC) is considered the Republican front-runner to
challenge Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) in 2014. Congresswoman Foxx's
son-in-law is Turkish and she is a top recipient of Turkish PAC
contributions. A January 10-13, 2013 poll conducted by Democrat
leaning Public Policy Polling showed Foxx leading the crowded
Republican field with 21%, but also showed Hagan over Foxx by 7% in
a direct match up. Although the 2012 Democratic National Convention
was held in Charlotte, North Carolina, Mitt Romney carried the state
with 51%. Rep. Foxx's potential departure from the Rules Committee
removes one obstacle, but her election to the Senate would create
a different one. Meanwhile, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen's addition to the
"Speaker's Committee" appears to have created another hurdle for
human rights proponents, but that doesn't necessarily mean she will be.
On the other side of Capitol Hill, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
(SFRC) Chairman and former Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry
(D-MA) was nominated by President Obama and quickly confirmed as the
68th U.S. Secretary of State. The Armenian Assembly of America, the
largest independent Armenian-American advocacy group, recalled Kerry's
numerous actions in support of Armenian issues. Departing Secretary
of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, considered the leading Democratic
contender for the White House in 2016, played a significant role in
the signing of historic Protocols by the governments of Turkey and
Armenia in 2009 that envisioned the establishment and normalization of
relations between the two countries, as well as the end of Turkey's
blockade of Armenia. Although the Protocols stalled in the Turkish
Parliament, Clinton has been on record multiple times urging Turkish
government officials at senior levels to follow through on their
international commitment.
Also departing Obama's cabinet is Defense Secretary Leon Panetta,
who was succeeded by former Senator Charles Hagel (R-KS), albeit
with some Senate consternation. Hagel's nomination is concerning to
Armenian-Americans. An article in the Washington Free Beacon entitled
"Chuck Hagel has an Armenian Problem," recalled a 2005 statement where
he declared that "What happened in 1915 happened in 1915" and that the
Armenian Genocide should be left "to historians and others to decide
what happened and why." Also of import to Armenian-Americans is the
departure of Samantha Power, Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs
and Human Rights at the National Security Council (NSC). Power is well
known in Armenian-American circles for her book "A Problem From Hell"
which extensively covers the Armenian Genocide, and for her assurances
to the Armenian-American community during the 2008 campaign that
Obama would keep his promise and recognize the Armenian Genocide as
President. Washington insiders consider Power as Obama's top pick to
be the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, should Susan Rice
be nominated to head the NSC. In addition, Phillip Gordon, Assistant
Secretary of State for European & Eurasian Affairs, has left his post
to join President Obama in the White House. He served as Secretary
Clinton's hand during the signing of the historic Armenia-Turkey
Protocols. Current State Department Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland is
expected to replace Gordon.
Kerry's departure from the Senate resulted in the promotion
of pro-Armenia Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) to Chairman of the
powerful SFRC. Menendez has been a champion of Armenian issues for
over a decade and is one of the Senate's strongest proponents of human
rights, religious freedom, and Armenian-American issues. Kerry's
departure also results in an open Senate seat in Massachusetts,
home to the second largest Armenian community in the U.S. Scott Brown
(R-MA), who shocked the nation when he won the 2010 special election
to replace deceased Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), announced, fresh off
his 2012 re-election loss, that he would not run to replace Kerry.
Much to the chagrin of the Massachusetts GOP, Brown would have been the
strongest Republican candidate in the field, and instead is reportedly
eyeing the Governor's mansion in 2014. Should Brown have run to replace
Kerry this year, he would have been forced to run for re-election again
next year. That amounts to four very expensive campaigns for Senate
in four years, something no politician has ever faced, and a natural
conclusion for Brown not to seek the seat. For Armenian-Americans,
it was interesting that with eight months remaining before the
2012 election Brown introduced the Senate version of the "Return of
Churches," a bill that called on the Republic of Turkey to safeguard
its Christian heritage and return stolen church properties. As
FLArmenians previously reported, the House version of this bill
passed the lower chamber last year, but Brown's bill went nowhere and
was perceived as a last-ditch effort to secure the Armenian-American
vote. Brown lost his re-election in 2012 to Democrat Elizabeth Warren,
who met with Armenian-Americans at the Democratic National Convention
last year and pledged her support of Armenian issues, particularly
genocide affirmation. Upon his election to the Senate in 2010, Brown
refused to cosponsor the Armenian Genocide resolution, a mistake that
proved consequential in his re-election effort. With Brown out, many
expect the Massachusetts Senate seat to remain in Democratic hands. The
two Democratic contenders are both members of the Armenian Caucus:
Reps. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Stephen Lynch (D-MA). Recent polling in the
state gives Markey the edge, in addition to Democratic establishment
support. However, Lynch has strong union backing and is expected to
mount a tough campaign in the Bay State. The Massachusetts Senate
special election is scheduled for June 25, 2013.
Florida's senior Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) has left the SFRC, while
Florida's junior Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) remains on the committee.
Rubio is a top contender in the Republican field for the White House
in 2016 and delivered the GOP response to President Obama's State
of the Union address earlier this year. Senators Nelson and Rubio
have no record in support of Armenian-American issues. Former Florida
Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), who incidentally backed Rubio's unsuccessful
candidacy to join Mitt Romney on the Republican presidential ticket
in 2012, is also a top Republican contender in the next race for the
White House. In 2006, Gov. Jeb Bush issued an official proclamation
commemorating the Armenian Genocide.
Also of note are the known and unknown retirements of pro-Armenian
Senators. Senior New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg announced his
intention not to seek re-election in 2014, paving the way for Newark
Mayor Cory Booker (D-NJ) to seek his seat. Representing one of the
strongest Armenian-American communities, New Jersey's senior Senator
Lautenberg has cosponsored successive Armenian Genocide resolutions.
Booker has not issued any official statements or proclamations on the
Armenian Genocide as mayor, but he has attended Armenian community
events. Also, Armenian Caucus Co-Founder and Co-Chair Rep. Frank
Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) previously expressed interest in the Senate seat
years ago, but has not yet announced his intentions for the next
cycle. Booker was in Palm Beach last month for a fundraiser for his
Senate campaign. Also, Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) announced that he
would not seek re-election in 2014. Republicans are looking forward
to Congressman Steve King (R-IA) jumping into this open seat contest,
while Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) is the only major Democrat in the race.
Rep. Steve King is a member of the Turkish Caucus whereas Rep. Bruce
Braley is a member of the Armenian Caucus. Another Senate departure
that seriously impacts Armenian-American issues is the retirement of
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI). Levin's
retirement was expected as he was on the short list of retirements to
look out for as we approach the 2014 mid-term elections. He will be
80 years old had he chosen to run for re-election next year. Senator
Levin has been a champion of Armenian issues for over thirty years
and introduced one of the first Armenian Genocide resolutions in
the Senate back in 1981. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL)
is also on that list, but his retirement is less likely. Durbin,
the Senate Democrat's number two, is a previous cosponsor of the
Armenian Genocide resolution.
With the exception of House Speaker Boehner, a majority of the
Republican and Democrat leadership in both the House and Senate,
including leaders of the HFAC and SFRC on both sides of the aisle,
all have strong, decades-long records in support of Armenian-American
issues, particularly efforts to protect Christian Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh from Muslim Turkey and Azerbaijan's blockade and
aggressive policies, as well as genocide recognition efforts.
Interestingly, despite the broad coalition of pro-Armenia congressional
leadership over the last thirty years, the one factor that has been
instrumental in previous legislative efforts to affirm and reaffirm
the Armenian Genocide is a strong Speaker of the House.
When the United States House of Representatives first acknowledged
the Armenian Genocide in 1977, and again in 1984, the Speaker at
the time was none other than Thomas Phillip "Tip" O'Neill (D-MA),
arguably one of the most powerful Speakers of the House in American
history. Of course, his being from Massachusetts helped. But since
then, the closest the Armenian Genocide resolution got to the House
floor was in 2000, when it passed the Rules Committee under Speaker
Dennis Hastert (R-IL) and was ultimately blocked by President Bill
Clinton. Hastert was somewhat of a strong Speaker, but he was no Newt
Gingrich or Tip O'Neill. In 2007 and 2010, Speaker Pelosi was unable
to get the Armenian Genocide bill through her own Rules Committee. As
the 113th Congress convened to elect their Speaker, some Republican
members organized a behind-the-scenes revolt against Boehner, many
preferring Rep. Eric Cantor. However unsuccessful this effort was,
it does open wider the possibility for a new Republican Speaker should
the GOP hold the House in 2014, especially if Republicans loose more
seats. History suggests that only a strong, well-respected and powerful
Speaker would be able to bring an Armenian Genocide resolution to
the floor of the House for a vote before 2015. One possible scenario
would be that a Speaker Ryan or a Speaker Cantor could very well play
that role. After joining Mitt Romney on the Republican ticket in 2012,
talk on Capitol Hill has it that Ryan is less interested in the White
House, and instead is eyeing the Speaker's gavel. In addition, it was
Cantor, not Boehner, who recently spoke at the American Enterprise
Institute in an effort to rebrand the GOP for the 2014 midterms. In
another scenario, should Democrats take back the House in the 2014,
it is unlikely that a Speaker Pelosi could or would bring an Armenian
Genocide bill up for a vote, but a Speaker Hoyer potentially could.
The 2014 mid-term elections will be an important factor in the makeup
of Armenian-American and Turkish influence in Congress, and will set
the chessboard for 2015. Congress, of which one chamber has already
recognized the Armenian Genocide, has an opportunity to work with the
White House to put American foreign policy on the right course when it
comes to the Armenian Genocide and future human rights related policy.
The outperformance of Turkish PACs to Armenian PACs in the last three
cycles has turned the tables, as reflected in the Armenian and Turkish
Caucus numbers. It remains to be seen what steps the Armenian-American
community will take in the next 24 months. At the same time, the
re-election of President Barack Obama offers a sliver of hope for
Armenian-Americans, particularly in those that stuck with him (with
their checkbooks and at the ballot box) last year. President Obama
can issue an executive proclamation, order or decree reaffirming
the vast U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide at any time prior to
the expiration of his term in January 2017. Certainly, human rights
and anti-genocide activists, within and beyond the Armenian-American
community, hope the President will honor his 2008 campaign promise to
refer to the events of 1915 as the Armenian Genocide before the 100th
anniversary. With a strong, well-established and broad coalition of
pro-Armenia officials in the leadership of both political parties
in both chambers of the U.S. Congress (and hopefully a strong
Speaker), President Obama no longer threatened by another election,
Vice President Joe Biden's well established record, and Secretary of
State Kerry's decades-long efforts on behalf of his Armenian-American
constituents, there has never been a more opportune time for the
Armenian-American community to have a positive impact on U.S.
reaffirmation, and Turkey's recognition, of the Armenian
Genocide-potentially even a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict as a result. After all, it is the modern government of
Turkey's recognition of its Ottoman predecessor's crime that the
Armenian Diaspora deems as the justice necessary to bring about
true healing and reconciliation between the two peoples. No doubt
President Obama, his cabinet, and U.S. Congressional leaders have an
opportunity to play a crucial role in what could be one of the most
monumental achievements of justice and conflict resolution in modern
human history.
Taniel Koushakjian is an independent political commentator for Florida
Armenians (www.flarmenians.com). He earned a B.A. in Political Science
from Florida Atlantic University, and is currently enrolled at the
George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management
in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter @Taniel_Shant.
by Taniel Koushakjian
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2013-04-10-congress-2014-election-and-genocide-centenary-
Published: Wednesday April 10, 2013
Obama address a joint session of Congress. Wikimedia
WASHINGTON - With the House of Representatives remaining in Republican
control and the Senate and White House again in Democratic hands,
another session of a divided Congress began on January 3, 2013. Major
domestic issues facing Americans will be the top priority for the
113th Congress, most likely stretching into the 114th Congress and
potentially even beyond that. Immigration reform, tax reform, job
creation, deficit reduction, reducing gun violence, civil liberties for
the LGBT community, and women's rights all top the agenda for elected
officials, rightfully so. But foreign policy, international religious
freedom and human rights issues have the potential to grab headlines,
especially in light of the U.S. draw down in Afghanistan, the effects
of the Arab Spring, and the civil war in Syria have all shown. Every
one of these issues, domestic and foreign, impact Armenian-Americans
in some way, thus begging the question: In this polarized political
climate and with a laundry list of serious problems facing Congress
and the White House, what does this mean for Armenian-Americans two
years away from the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide?
Congressman John Boehner (R-OH) was re-elected to serve as Speaker
of the House of Representatives for the 113th Congress. Reps. Eric
Cantor (R-VA) and Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) were re-elected to serve
as Majority Leader and Majority Whip, respectively. Rep. Paul Ryan
(R-WI), the Republican Vice Presidential nominee and a leader in the
House Republican Conference, was re-elected to his House seat and will
remain the Chairman of the powerful Budget Committee. Leader Cantor and
Chairman Ryan sit on the Armenian Caucus and, together with McCarthy,
have all cosponsored Armenian Genocide resolutions. On the Democratic
side, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Minority Whip Steny
Hoyer (D-MD) also resumed their posts. Pelosi and Hoyer also sit on
the Armenian Caucus and have decades-long records on Armenian issues
in Congress. Democrats gained 12 seats in the last election leaving
Republicans in control of the chamber by a narrower margin, 232-200.
Two seats are currently vacant and impact Armenian issues: Illinois'
2nd district where, despite his re-election last November, Armenian
Caucus Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL) resigned, plead guilty and
currently faces up to five years in prison for his personal use of
campaign funds; and South Carolina's 1st district where Rep. Tim Scott
(R-SC) was appointed to the U.S. Senate to fill the seat vacated by
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Former Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) resigned
in 2009 after admitting to an extramarital affair and is running
to win back his old House seat. In 2000, then-Congressman Sanford
was a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee (then called
the House International Relations Committee) and voted YES during
the committee vote on the Armenian Genocide resolution. Last week,
Sanford won the Republican primary and will face Democrat Elizabeth
Colbert Bush, the sister of popular comedian Stephen Colbert. Although
the South Carolina 1st seat is heavily Republican (Mitt Romney carried
the district over President Obama 58-40), Colbert Bush is waging a
strong campaign and is in a statistical tie with Sanford according to
a recent poll. The special elections in Illinois and South Carolina
will be held on April 9, and May 7, 2013, respectively.
For the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) also reassumed their posts. Both
Reid and McConnell have significant records in support of Armenian
issues. Reid is considered a champion of Armenian issues, having
cosponsored successive Armenian Genocide resolutions. Last year,
the Armenian National Committee of America honored Senator Reid
for championing Armenian issues. In August 1997, Senator McConnell
travelled to Armenia and two years later led the charge against
a pro-Azerbaijan amendment proposed by then-Senator Sam Brownback
(R-KS) that would have repealed Section 907 of the Freedom Support
Act (Public Law 102-511), which bars direct U.S. military aid to
Azerbaijan given the ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Azerbaijan
(1988-1990), the ensuing Nagorno-Karabakh War (1991-1994), and
Azerbaijan's blockade of Armenia (1994-Present). Although McConnell
was successful in defeating the amendment and protecting Armenia,
a watered down version of Brownback's amendment eventually came to
pass in 2001, granting the President the authority to waive Section
907 and provide U.S. military assistance to Azerbaijan, which the
President has since done on an annual basis. Democrats gained two
seats in the Senate in 2012 and now control the chamber 55-45 (two
Independent Senators caucus with Democrats).
Like the previous Congress, both Republican and Democratic leaders
in the 113th Congress each have strong records in support of
Armenian-American issues, specifically Senate Majority Leader Reid,
Senate Minority Leader McConnell, House Majority Leader Cantor, House
Majority Whip McCarthy, House Budget Chairman Ryan, House Minority
Leader Pelosi and House Minority Whip Hoyer.
Looking at the House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC), the committee
of jurisdiction for the Armenian Genocide resolution, Rep. Ileana
Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) is term limited according to House Republican
Conference rules, stepped down as chairman of the committee, but
will remain on as the Subcommittee Chair for the Middle East and
North Africa. As FLArmenians previously reported, Ros-Lehtinen has
an inconsistent record on Armenian issues, having voted YES on the
Armenian Genocide resolution in 2000 and 2005, but NO in 2007 and
2010. She also sits on both the Armenian and Turkish Caucus. With
Ros-Lehtinen's transition, Armenian Caucus Co-Chair Rep. Ed Royce
(R-CA) has taken the gavel as Chairman for the 113th Congress, with
pro-Armenia Rep. Elliot Engel (D-NY) serving as Ranking Member. Tied
with California, Florida Representatives account for the largest
delegation serving on the HFAC (7 out of 46) namely Ros-Lehtinen,
and Reps. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Trey Radel (R-FL), Ted Yoho (R-FL),
Ted Deutch (D-FL), Alan Grayson (D-FL) and Lois Frankel (D-FL).
Hellenic Caucus Co-Chair and Armenian Caucus member Rep. Gus Bilirakis
(R-FL) is no longer serving on HFAC. In addition to Bilirakis,
pro-Armenian Representatives departing the HFAC in 113th Congress
include Reps. Donald Manzullo (R-IL), Howard Berman (D-CA), Allyson
Schwartz (D-PA), and Christopher Murphy (D-CT). Congressman Manzullo
(R-IL), who voted YES on Armenian Genocide resolution votes in
committee in 2007 and 2010, lost a bitter primary battle. Due to
redistricting, he was forced to run against his fellow Republican
colleague and Turkish Caucus Member Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). In an
unusual move, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor got involved in
the race. Cantor publicly endorsed Kinzinger over Manzullo, donated
$10,000 to him from his leadership PAC while "The YG Action Fund"
Super PAC - run by a former Cantor aide - spent $52,000 on a radio ad
boosting Kinzinger," according to a report in Roll Call. Furthermore,
Kinzinger received $6,500 from Turkish PACs last cycle, a bet that
seems to have paid off. HFAC Ranking Member Howard Berman was also a
victim of redistricting, where he lost his seat to fellow Democratic
colleague Brad Sherman (D-CA). As FLArmenians reported last year, the
Berman-Sherman race was sure to grab national headlines, and it did.
In addition to both sides spending a record $16 million, at one point
the two Congressmen almost got into a physical altercation during a
town hall debate. Armenian Caucus member Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA)
easily won re-election last year, but will not sit on the HFAC in the
113th Congress. According to a report in the Philadelphia Inquirer,
Rep. Schwartz is interested in leaving her House seat behind in a
run for Governor in 2014. Armenian Caucus member Christopher Murphy
(D-CT) did not seek re-election last year, and instead successfully
ran for Senate where he replaced retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT).
Pro-Turkey members departing the HFAC in the 113th Congress include
Reps. Dan Burton (R-IN), Mike Pence (R-IN), Connie Mack (R-FL), Jean
Schmidt (R-OH), and Russ Carnahan (D-MO). Congressman Burton announced
his retirement last year and did not seek re-election. In February,
Burton was named chairman of the board of the Azerbaijan American
Alliance. Rep. Pence was elected Governor of Indiana last year,
while Congressman Mack unsuccessfully ran for the Florida Senate,
giving up his House seat in the process. Both Reps. Jean Schmidt
and Russ Carnahan lost their respective party primary election and
were not even on the ballot in November. However, the circumstances
surrounding Jean Schmidt's stunning primary loss, as well as the loss
of her two-time opponent, Armenian-American David Krikorian (D-OH),
warrants a deeper look. As FLArmenians reported last year, Schmidt
and Krikorian faced off at the ballot box in 2008 and 2010, and in an
Ohio election courtroom in 2011. A number of factors contributed to
Schmidt's ousting in addition to her ethics woes: she was an incumbent,
was opposed by the Tea-Party, she had new territory in her district
as a result of redistricting, and she did very little campaigning to
keep her job, if at all. In fact, on the day of the primary election,
Schmidt wasn't even in Ohio; she was in Washington, D.C. attending a
private luncheon with Turkey's Ambassador to the United States Namik
Tan, according to a report in POLITICO. In August 2011 the House
Ethics Committee ordered Schmidt to repay the more than $500,000 she
"unknowingly accepted" to the Turkish Coalition of America when she
was found guilty of accepting the free legal services as an improper
gift, but cleared of wrongdoing. To date, Schmidt has only made one
payment toward her debt. However, since she is no longer serving in
Congress she gets to "cleanly walk away from this," the Dayton Daily
News reported. As for Krikorian, he too lost his primary battle,
but the writing wasn't so much on the wall for him as it was for
Schmidt. William R. Smith, a local truck driver and political unknown
who spent no money and did no campaigning whatsoever trumped Krikorian
by 59 votes out of roughly 20,000 cast. Kirkorian campaigned hard,
raised money, travelled the district and had the backing of the local
and state Democratic Party. However, a report in USATODAY attributes
Krikorian's upset to a last minute effort by a mysterious Super PAC
that sponsored a number of robo-calls encouraging voters to back Smith.
Today, nine of the 46 members of the HFAC sit on the Armenian Caucus,
whereas 13 sit on the Turkish Caucus. Nearly half of the HFAC in the
113th Congress are freshman (22) and it is not yet clear who will
join the Armenian or Turkish Caucus. Technically a member of the 113th
freshman class, Rep. Alan Grayson, served in Congress from 2008-2010
and was an original cosponsor of the Armenian Genocide resolution.
Also, despite the fact that Congressman Deutch has never cosponsored
the Armenian Genocide resolution, he did vote YES during the successful
committee vote in 2010.
Congresswoman Ros-Lehtinen was also appointed to the House Rules
Committee in the 113th Congress, a top leadership body that oversees
what legislation is actually brought up and passed by the House of
Representatives. This committee is significant should any legislation
reaffirming the United States Record on the Armenian Genocide be
brought to the floor for a vote in the run up to 2015. In fact,
Florida currently holds four out of the 13-committee seats, which
also includes Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL), who helped lead Democratic
efforts to defeat the Armenian Genocide resolution in 2007. Last year,
the Turkish Coalition of America sponsored a trip for Ros-Lehtinen
to Turkey, where she was reunited with her Turkish relatives. Looking
ahead, Turkish Caucus Co-Chair and Rules Committee Vice-Chairman Rep.
Virginia Foxx (R-NC) is considered the Republican front-runner to
challenge Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) in 2014. Congresswoman Foxx's
son-in-law is Turkish and she is a top recipient of Turkish PAC
contributions. A January 10-13, 2013 poll conducted by Democrat
leaning Public Policy Polling showed Foxx leading the crowded
Republican field with 21%, but also showed Hagan over Foxx by 7% in
a direct match up. Although the 2012 Democratic National Convention
was held in Charlotte, North Carolina, Mitt Romney carried the state
with 51%. Rep. Foxx's potential departure from the Rules Committee
removes one obstacle, but her election to the Senate would create
a different one. Meanwhile, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen's addition to the
"Speaker's Committee" appears to have created another hurdle for
human rights proponents, but that doesn't necessarily mean she will be.
On the other side of Capitol Hill, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
(SFRC) Chairman and former Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry
(D-MA) was nominated by President Obama and quickly confirmed as the
68th U.S. Secretary of State. The Armenian Assembly of America, the
largest independent Armenian-American advocacy group, recalled Kerry's
numerous actions in support of Armenian issues. Departing Secretary
of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, considered the leading Democratic
contender for the White House in 2016, played a significant role in
the signing of historic Protocols by the governments of Turkey and
Armenia in 2009 that envisioned the establishment and normalization of
relations between the two countries, as well as the end of Turkey's
blockade of Armenia. Although the Protocols stalled in the Turkish
Parliament, Clinton has been on record multiple times urging Turkish
government officials at senior levels to follow through on their
international commitment.
Also departing Obama's cabinet is Defense Secretary Leon Panetta,
who was succeeded by former Senator Charles Hagel (R-KS), albeit
with some Senate consternation. Hagel's nomination is concerning to
Armenian-Americans. An article in the Washington Free Beacon entitled
"Chuck Hagel has an Armenian Problem," recalled a 2005 statement where
he declared that "What happened in 1915 happened in 1915" and that the
Armenian Genocide should be left "to historians and others to decide
what happened and why." Also of import to Armenian-Americans is the
departure of Samantha Power, Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs
and Human Rights at the National Security Council (NSC). Power is well
known in Armenian-American circles for her book "A Problem From Hell"
which extensively covers the Armenian Genocide, and for her assurances
to the Armenian-American community during the 2008 campaign that
Obama would keep his promise and recognize the Armenian Genocide as
President. Washington insiders consider Power as Obama's top pick to
be the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, should Susan Rice
be nominated to head the NSC. In addition, Phillip Gordon, Assistant
Secretary of State for European & Eurasian Affairs, has left his post
to join President Obama in the White House. He served as Secretary
Clinton's hand during the signing of the historic Armenia-Turkey
Protocols. Current State Department Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland is
expected to replace Gordon.
Kerry's departure from the Senate resulted in the promotion
of pro-Armenia Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) to Chairman of the
powerful SFRC. Menendez has been a champion of Armenian issues for
over a decade and is one of the Senate's strongest proponents of human
rights, religious freedom, and Armenian-American issues. Kerry's
departure also results in an open Senate seat in Massachusetts,
home to the second largest Armenian community in the U.S. Scott Brown
(R-MA), who shocked the nation when he won the 2010 special election
to replace deceased Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA), announced, fresh off
his 2012 re-election loss, that he would not run to replace Kerry.
Much to the chagrin of the Massachusetts GOP, Brown would have been the
strongest Republican candidate in the field, and instead is reportedly
eyeing the Governor's mansion in 2014. Should Brown have run to replace
Kerry this year, he would have been forced to run for re-election again
next year. That amounts to four very expensive campaigns for Senate
in four years, something no politician has ever faced, and a natural
conclusion for Brown not to seek the seat. For Armenian-Americans,
it was interesting that with eight months remaining before the
2012 election Brown introduced the Senate version of the "Return of
Churches," a bill that called on the Republic of Turkey to safeguard
its Christian heritage and return stolen church properties. As
FLArmenians previously reported, the House version of this bill
passed the lower chamber last year, but Brown's bill went nowhere and
was perceived as a last-ditch effort to secure the Armenian-American
vote. Brown lost his re-election in 2012 to Democrat Elizabeth Warren,
who met with Armenian-Americans at the Democratic National Convention
last year and pledged her support of Armenian issues, particularly
genocide affirmation. Upon his election to the Senate in 2010, Brown
refused to cosponsor the Armenian Genocide resolution, a mistake that
proved consequential in his re-election effort. With Brown out, many
expect the Massachusetts Senate seat to remain in Democratic hands. The
two Democratic contenders are both members of the Armenian Caucus:
Reps. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Stephen Lynch (D-MA). Recent polling in the
state gives Markey the edge, in addition to Democratic establishment
support. However, Lynch has strong union backing and is expected to
mount a tough campaign in the Bay State. The Massachusetts Senate
special election is scheduled for June 25, 2013.
Florida's senior Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) has left the SFRC, while
Florida's junior Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) remains on the committee.
Rubio is a top contender in the Republican field for the White House
in 2016 and delivered the GOP response to President Obama's State
of the Union address earlier this year. Senators Nelson and Rubio
have no record in support of Armenian-American issues. Former Florida
Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), who incidentally backed Rubio's unsuccessful
candidacy to join Mitt Romney on the Republican presidential ticket
in 2012, is also a top Republican contender in the next race for the
White House. In 2006, Gov. Jeb Bush issued an official proclamation
commemorating the Armenian Genocide.
Also of note are the known and unknown retirements of pro-Armenian
Senators. Senior New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg announced his
intention not to seek re-election in 2014, paving the way for Newark
Mayor Cory Booker (D-NJ) to seek his seat. Representing one of the
strongest Armenian-American communities, New Jersey's senior Senator
Lautenberg has cosponsored successive Armenian Genocide resolutions.
Booker has not issued any official statements or proclamations on the
Armenian Genocide as mayor, but he has attended Armenian community
events. Also, Armenian Caucus Co-Founder and Co-Chair Rep. Frank
Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) previously expressed interest in the Senate seat
years ago, but has not yet announced his intentions for the next
cycle. Booker was in Palm Beach last month for a fundraiser for his
Senate campaign. Also, Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) announced that he
would not seek re-election in 2014. Republicans are looking forward
to Congressman Steve King (R-IA) jumping into this open seat contest,
while Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) is the only major Democrat in the race.
Rep. Steve King is a member of the Turkish Caucus whereas Rep. Bruce
Braley is a member of the Armenian Caucus. Another Senate departure
that seriously impacts Armenian-American issues is the retirement of
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI). Levin's
retirement was expected as he was on the short list of retirements to
look out for as we approach the 2014 mid-term elections. He will be
80 years old had he chosen to run for re-election next year. Senator
Levin has been a champion of Armenian issues for over thirty years
and introduced one of the first Armenian Genocide resolutions in
the Senate back in 1981. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL)
is also on that list, but his retirement is less likely. Durbin,
the Senate Democrat's number two, is a previous cosponsor of the
Armenian Genocide resolution.
With the exception of House Speaker Boehner, a majority of the
Republican and Democrat leadership in both the House and Senate,
including leaders of the HFAC and SFRC on both sides of the aisle,
all have strong, decades-long records in support of Armenian-American
issues, particularly efforts to protect Christian Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh from Muslim Turkey and Azerbaijan's blockade and
aggressive policies, as well as genocide recognition efforts.
Interestingly, despite the broad coalition of pro-Armenia congressional
leadership over the last thirty years, the one factor that has been
instrumental in previous legislative efforts to affirm and reaffirm
the Armenian Genocide is a strong Speaker of the House.
When the United States House of Representatives first acknowledged
the Armenian Genocide in 1977, and again in 1984, the Speaker at
the time was none other than Thomas Phillip "Tip" O'Neill (D-MA),
arguably one of the most powerful Speakers of the House in American
history. Of course, his being from Massachusetts helped. But since
then, the closest the Armenian Genocide resolution got to the House
floor was in 2000, when it passed the Rules Committee under Speaker
Dennis Hastert (R-IL) and was ultimately blocked by President Bill
Clinton. Hastert was somewhat of a strong Speaker, but he was no Newt
Gingrich or Tip O'Neill. In 2007 and 2010, Speaker Pelosi was unable
to get the Armenian Genocide bill through her own Rules Committee. As
the 113th Congress convened to elect their Speaker, some Republican
members organized a behind-the-scenes revolt against Boehner, many
preferring Rep. Eric Cantor. However unsuccessful this effort was,
it does open wider the possibility for a new Republican Speaker should
the GOP hold the House in 2014, especially if Republicans loose more
seats. History suggests that only a strong, well-respected and powerful
Speaker would be able to bring an Armenian Genocide resolution to
the floor of the House for a vote before 2015. One possible scenario
would be that a Speaker Ryan or a Speaker Cantor could very well play
that role. After joining Mitt Romney on the Republican ticket in 2012,
talk on Capitol Hill has it that Ryan is less interested in the White
House, and instead is eyeing the Speaker's gavel. In addition, it was
Cantor, not Boehner, who recently spoke at the American Enterprise
Institute in an effort to rebrand the GOP for the 2014 midterms. In
another scenario, should Democrats take back the House in the 2014,
it is unlikely that a Speaker Pelosi could or would bring an Armenian
Genocide bill up for a vote, but a Speaker Hoyer potentially could.
The 2014 mid-term elections will be an important factor in the makeup
of Armenian-American and Turkish influence in Congress, and will set
the chessboard for 2015. Congress, of which one chamber has already
recognized the Armenian Genocide, has an opportunity to work with the
White House to put American foreign policy on the right course when it
comes to the Armenian Genocide and future human rights related policy.
The outperformance of Turkish PACs to Armenian PACs in the last three
cycles has turned the tables, as reflected in the Armenian and Turkish
Caucus numbers. It remains to be seen what steps the Armenian-American
community will take in the next 24 months. At the same time, the
re-election of President Barack Obama offers a sliver of hope for
Armenian-Americans, particularly in those that stuck with him (with
their checkbooks and at the ballot box) last year. President Obama
can issue an executive proclamation, order or decree reaffirming
the vast U.S. record on the Armenian Genocide at any time prior to
the expiration of his term in January 2017. Certainly, human rights
and anti-genocide activists, within and beyond the Armenian-American
community, hope the President will honor his 2008 campaign promise to
refer to the events of 1915 as the Armenian Genocide before the 100th
anniversary. With a strong, well-established and broad coalition of
pro-Armenia officials in the leadership of both political parties
in both chambers of the U.S. Congress (and hopefully a strong
Speaker), President Obama no longer threatened by another election,
Vice President Joe Biden's well established record, and Secretary of
State Kerry's decades-long efforts on behalf of his Armenian-American
constituents, there has never been a more opportune time for the
Armenian-American community to have a positive impact on U.S.
reaffirmation, and Turkey's recognition, of the Armenian
Genocide-potentially even a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict as a result. After all, it is the modern government of
Turkey's recognition of its Ottoman predecessor's crime that the
Armenian Diaspora deems as the justice necessary to bring about
true healing and reconciliation between the two peoples. No doubt
President Obama, his cabinet, and U.S. Congressional leaders have an
opportunity to play a crucial role in what could be one of the most
monumental achievements of justice and conflict resolution in modern
human history.
Taniel Koushakjian is an independent political commentator for Florida
Armenians (www.flarmenians.com). He earned a B.A. in Political Science
from Florida Atlantic University, and is currently enrolled at the
George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management
in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter @Taniel_Shant.