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BAREVOLUTION AT A CROSSROADS: THOUGHTS ON THE ALTERCATIONS OF APRIL 9
By Christian Garbis
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/04/11/barevolution-at-a-crossroads-thoughts-on-the-altercations-of-april-9/comment-page-1/#comment-110749
Posted on April 11, 2013
When Raffi Hovanissian addressed the crowd of approximately 10,000
at Freedom Square just after noontime on April 9, he repeated the
same rhetoric he had been stating for months-power to the people,
the nation belongs to the people, the people will be victorious,
the corrupt, dishonest leaders of Armenia will answer to the people
in Freedom Square and so forth. Essentially nothing new was said. The
oath he gave with the people, constitutions in hand, was inspirational,
even charming. But he let the crowd down when he sent them off to lunch
at 1:30p.m. There would be no march en masse as anticipated by many
to the Presidential Palace in a magnificent show of defiance against
what the people, what this movement, saw as a corrupt, kleptocratic,
illegitimate regime.
That march wouldn't take place until the second rally of the day
held at 6p.m. adjourned, but by then the crowd had dwindled to only
a few thousand. It was the jeers in the crowd that coaxed Raffi into
agreeing to stride past the Palace while making yet another pilgrimage
to Tsitsernakaberd to say one more prayer. I heard firsthand people's
frustrations, and they demanded that he take immediate action by
chanting "Now! Now!", just as they had done earlier that afternoon. As
if to say, "you want it, you got it," he suddenly announced that
they would move forward, only to be met by a wall of police in full
riot gear standing across the width of Baghramyan Avenue, at its
intersection with Tamanyan Street. Naturally a melee ensued, panic,
shoving, beating. And video recording-there were dozens of cameras and
cell phones thrust overhead in the crowd. His confidant and the top
Barev candidate for mayor of Yerevan Armen Martirosyan was detained
after a brutal struggle with the police at the line of contact, which
was captured on video. Even after watching it three times I couldn't
determine whether the police provoked him to throw punches and kick,
or if they simply lost patience with his resistance.
I was in the crowd, taking photos and capturing video footage of my
own, which I promptly posted on my blog as well as Facebook shortly
after I returned home. Although I admired Raffi's courage and that of
everyone in the crowd, as I was dozing off late at night I began to
have doubts as to whether the confrontation was worth it. For weeks
I have believed that a catalyst was necessary in order to activate
the dormant masses and thus take the movement to the next level,
another step forward in the tireless, snail-paced efforts to replace
the authorities. His near month-long hunger strike proved fruitless,
and so did yesterday's symbolic pledge of allegiance to the nation
and constitution. Raffi could not continue stalling forever, everyone
knew this. But his unexpected change of plans last night in response
to a stream of goading catcalls demonstrated a lack of tactfulness,
even disorganization.
The entire spectrum of the opposition seemed silent today. The
student movement held its own protest separate from the Barevolution
block late in the afternoon near the National Assembly building,
which resulted in detentions and absurd shouting and shoving
matches with pro-government goons and the police-or as a friend
often jests, the authorities' hired security service-cleverly
captured on video and distributed via Facebook and YouTube
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=tkTirpL-OiI],
only to be followed by inactivity today.
The police near Bagramyan on April 9 (Photo by Serouj Aprahamian) Fact
is, the numbers of people needed for a peaceful transition of power,
similar to what transpired in Georgia during the Rose Revolution of
2003, are not there. It is clearly obvious that the vast majority of
citizens are still drowning in a fatalistic whirlpool, convinced that
nothing will change whether or not they are actually present at these
rallies. Perhaps realizing this all too well, Raffi decided not to
lead the crowds up Bagramyan Street in the afternoon.
Or maybe it was never on the agenda to begin with. But the seed of
confusion took root in me when I saw Jirayr Sefilian and other members
of the Sardarabad Movement gasp in disbelief when learning the rally
had broken up shortly before arriving on the scene. It was then when
I realized that Raffi is really not communicating his intent to the
leaders of the groups supporting him. If I am indeed right about that,
then it's a catastrophe in the making.
This all leaves me and thousands of others in a tipsy state of
bewilderment. I simply cannot understand the logic of events that
transpired on the ninth, and virtually everyone I've spoken to confirms
the same. The moment to take to the streets should have been when
the crowd was 10,000 strong, although I understood full well that
number had to be ten times greater for a show of strength to have
been effective. And the evening standoff proved pointless-when I
revisited the site of the clash earlier tonight it was business as
usual, as if nothing had ever happened. I don't really know what to
make of all these days off in between protest initiatives, it only
adds to the confusion and peculiarity of the disjointed opposition
groups. A concrete plan of action is being anticipated on April 12.
But before then, Raffi would be wise to invite seasoned politicians and
intelligent, reasonable thinkers like Armen Rustamyan, Nikol Pashinian,
Sefilian, Andreas Ghukasyan and Karapet Rubinyan to his headquarters
on Thursday and hammer out a concrete strategy on how the movement
should transform, or rather gain focus. Reconciliation with the Free
Democrats is long overdue, as the tried-and-true mobilization skills
of Alexander Arzoumanian are inexcusably being squandered. At this
point, he needs all the help he can get. Although he may not realize
it, Raffi's pride is blinding his vision and stifling his expression
of intent, which will lead to his downfall unless he learns how to
listen and compromise, right now.
Raffi has less than 48 hours until the next scheduled rally to save
face and regain people's confidence, or else risk becoming irrelevant.
And this movement cannot afford that, not after all the progress it
has made thus far.
By Christian Garbis
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/04/11/barevolution-at-a-crossroads-thoughts-on-the-altercations-of-april-9/comment-page-1/#comment-110749
Posted on April 11, 2013
When Raffi Hovanissian addressed the crowd of approximately 10,000
at Freedom Square just after noontime on April 9, he repeated the
same rhetoric he had been stating for months-power to the people,
the nation belongs to the people, the people will be victorious,
the corrupt, dishonest leaders of Armenia will answer to the people
in Freedom Square and so forth. Essentially nothing new was said. The
oath he gave with the people, constitutions in hand, was inspirational,
even charming. But he let the crowd down when he sent them off to lunch
at 1:30p.m. There would be no march en masse as anticipated by many
to the Presidential Palace in a magnificent show of defiance against
what the people, what this movement, saw as a corrupt, kleptocratic,
illegitimate regime.
That march wouldn't take place until the second rally of the day
held at 6p.m. adjourned, but by then the crowd had dwindled to only
a few thousand. It was the jeers in the crowd that coaxed Raffi into
agreeing to stride past the Palace while making yet another pilgrimage
to Tsitsernakaberd to say one more prayer. I heard firsthand people's
frustrations, and they demanded that he take immediate action by
chanting "Now! Now!", just as they had done earlier that afternoon. As
if to say, "you want it, you got it," he suddenly announced that
they would move forward, only to be met by a wall of police in full
riot gear standing across the width of Baghramyan Avenue, at its
intersection with Tamanyan Street. Naturally a melee ensued, panic,
shoving, beating. And video recording-there were dozens of cameras and
cell phones thrust overhead in the crowd. His confidant and the top
Barev candidate for mayor of Yerevan Armen Martirosyan was detained
after a brutal struggle with the police at the line of contact, which
was captured on video. Even after watching it three times I couldn't
determine whether the police provoked him to throw punches and kick,
or if they simply lost patience with his resistance.
I was in the crowd, taking photos and capturing video footage of my
own, which I promptly posted on my blog as well as Facebook shortly
after I returned home. Although I admired Raffi's courage and that of
everyone in the crowd, as I was dozing off late at night I began to
have doubts as to whether the confrontation was worth it. For weeks
I have believed that a catalyst was necessary in order to activate
the dormant masses and thus take the movement to the next level,
another step forward in the tireless, snail-paced efforts to replace
the authorities. His near month-long hunger strike proved fruitless,
and so did yesterday's symbolic pledge of allegiance to the nation
and constitution. Raffi could not continue stalling forever, everyone
knew this. But his unexpected change of plans last night in response
to a stream of goading catcalls demonstrated a lack of tactfulness,
even disorganization.
The entire spectrum of the opposition seemed silent today. The
student movement held its own protest separate from the Barevolution
block late in the afternoon near the National Assembly building,
which resulted in detentions and absurd shouting and shoving
matches with pro-government goons and the police-or as a friend
often jests, the authorities' hired security service-cleverly
captured on video and distributed via Facebook and YouTube
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=tkTirpL-OiI],
only to be followed by inactivity today.
The police near Bagramyan on April 9 (Photo by Serouj Aprahamian) Fact
is, the numbers of people needed for a peaceful transition of power,
similar to what transpired in Georgia during the Rose Revolution of
2003, are not there. It is clearly obvious that the vast majority of
citizens are still drowning in a fatalistic whirlpool, convinced that
nothing will change whether or not they are actually present at these
rallies. Perhaps realizing this all too well, Raffi decided not to
lead the crowds up Bagramyan Street in the afternoon.
Or maybe it was never on the agenda to begin with. But the seed of
confusion took root in me when I saw Jirayr Sefilian and other members
of the Sardarabad Movement gasp in disbelief when learning the rally
had broken up shortly before arriving on the scene. It was then when
I realized that Raffi is really not communicating his intent to the
leaders of the groups supporting him. If I am indeed right about that,
then it's a catastrophe in the making.
This all leaves me and thousands of others in a tipsy state of
bewilderment. I simply cannot understand the logic of events that
transpired on the ninth, and virtually everyone I've spoken to confirms
the same. The moment to take to the streets should have been when
the crowd was 10,000 strong, although I understood full well that
number had to be ten times greater for a show of strength to have
been effective. And the evening standoff proved pointless-when I
revisited the site of the clash earlier tonight it was business as
usual, as if nothing had ever happened. I don't really know what to
make of all these days off in between protest initiatives, it only
adds to the confusion and peculiarity of the disjointed opposition
groups. A concrete plan of action is being anticipated on April 12.
But before then, Raffi would be wise to invite seasoned politicians and
intelligent, reasonable thinkers like Armen Rustamyan, Nikol Pashinian,
Sefilian, Andreas Ghukasyan and Karapet Rubinyan to his headquarters
on Thursday and hammer out a concrete strategy on how the movement
should transform, or rather gain focus. Reconciliation with the Free
Democrats is long overdue, as the tried-and-true mobilization skills
of Alexander Arzoumanian are inexcusably being squandered. At this
point, he needs all the help he can get. Although he may not realize
it, Raffi's pride is blinding his vision and stifling his expression
of intent, which will lead to his downfall unless he learns how to
listen and compromise, right now.
Raffi has less than 48 hours until the next scheduled rally to save
face and regain people's confidence, or else risk becoming irrelevant.
And this movement cannot afford that, not after all the progress it
has made thus far.