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Today's Zaman, Turkey
April 14 2013
Migration: A future challenge for the South Caucasus?
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
A recent study by research company Gallup on migration in the
post-Soviet space (not including the Baltic states), based on data
collected between 2010 and 2012, shows that Armenians are most likely
to want to move to another country (40 percent), and Uzbeks are the
least likely at just 5 percent, compared with an average of 15 percent
across the 12 former Soviet republics.
The main reasons given for a desire to emigrate are economic in
nature, with better living conditions cited as the priority for 52
percent of respondents. It is generally believed that migrants from
the post-Soviet region emigrate in order to provide a better future
for their children. However, in the country where this is cited most
often as the primary factor, Turkmenistan, just 6 percent of the
population identified themselves as potential migrants. A similar
trend can be seen in Armenia, where 40 percent want to move but only
13 percent state their children's future as the main reason.
Looking specifically at the South Caucasus, as mentioned above,
Armenians have the greatest desire to emigrate, and 14 percent of
respondents in Azerbaijan and Georgia share this same wish. However,
the motivations across the three South Caucasian countries differ.
South Caucasus' migration mosaic
In addition to the Gallup poll reviewed above, the Caucasus Research
Resource Centers' (CRRC) Caucasus Barometer surveys are useful for
understanding the changing dynamics across different socio-economic
factors in addition to migration. According to the Caucasus Barometer
(2011), interest in temporary migration stands at 25 percent among
Armenians, 16 percent among Azerbaijanis and 11 percent among
Georgians.
The different historical, political and economic narratives of each
country cast a different light on their populations' motivations for
staying or leaving. For example, in Armenia, since 2008, the trend of
temporary and permanent migration has increased mainly due to the
world economic crisis, which has weakened the country's position
internationally. Data shows that migration spiked in 2008 compared to
previous years. However, according to the Armenian State Migration
Service, over 11 months of 2012, the difference between leavers and
returnees was about 72,000 people, from which it can be deduced that
approximately 70,000-80,000 people are leaving the country annually. A
more worrying trend is that unlike migration from Armenia in the past,
the current migrants are much younger and much more likely to leave
permanently than older migrants; this adds to the problem of the
country's declining population. The problem seems somewhat
intractable; Armenia's economic situation is the primary motivation
for migration, and currently the government does not have sufficient
funding to resolve the various socio-economic problems. Borrowing
money is tricky, given that massive borrowing from abroad has more
than doubled the country's public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP)
ratio, which now stands at around 40 percent and leaves very little
room for further borrowing. Meanwhile, according to the preliminary
2011 Caucasus Barometer, socio-economic problems are those
consistently prompting people to leave.
In the case of Azerbaijan, according to the 2011 Caucasus Barometer's
data, 21 percent of respondents are interested in permanent
emigration, and 52 percent have an interest in moving away on a
temporary basis. According to official data, Azerbaijan now has a
positive net migration rate thanks to its stabilized economy. From
2008-2010, 4,700 people left the country and 8,100 people arrived for
permanent residence. The country's strong energy sector means that the
government is better positioned to balance or stop permanent migration
abroad than its counterparts in Armenia and Georgia. Looking at the
different reasons given by potential migrants, based on the
preliminary data from the 2011 Caucasus Barometer, of the 21 percent
of respondents who want to emigrate permanently, 29 percent are job
seekers, 34 percent do not trust the educational system, 30 percent do
not trust the healthcare system and 28 percent are in the younger age
bracket (18-35). The Azerbaijanis who want to emigrate permanently are
not, in general, the country's top educational achievers, and in this
sense brain drain is not the primary concern. On the other hand, there
are cases of citizens going abroad for higher education and seeking
asylum and/or citizenship once there.
In Georgia, the 2011 Caucasus Barometer data shows that just 6 percent
of respondents are interested in permanent migration, but the
percentage interested in temporary migration jumps up to 47 percent.
To understand this dynamic, it is important to take into account the
significant achievements of the Georgian government over the last
seven to nine years, namely the liberalization of movement to EU
countries and the support for circular migration. A crucial factor is
the establishment of a legal regime that supports the employment of
Georgian citizens abroad. On the other hand, the 2008 August War with
Russia negatively affected the status of Georgians living and working
in Russia. The conflict also significantly damaged bilateral trade,
badly affecting the domestic socio-economic situation. However, the
government has sought to mitigate this effect by making Georgia more
attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI). Indeed, migration
issues are far from a top priority for a country when it faces a wide
range of territorial, political and economic problems, despite the
fact that the EU is putting pressure on Georgia to implement a
migration policy based on the EU model. Given Tbilisi's EU-integration
aims, the government is mindful of pressure from the EU on this issue.
Finally, what is clear is that migration poses an increasing challenge
for the South Caucasus region. Taking into account the various factors
at play -- aging populations, lower birth rates, illegal immigration
and other country-specific issues -- there is a risk that in the mid
to long term, migration could become an important regional security
challenge.
From: A. Papazian
April 14 2013
Migration: A future challenge for the South Caucasus?
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
A recent study by research company Gallup on migration in the
post-Soviet space (not including the Baltic states), based on data
collected between 2010 and 2012, shows that Armenians are most likely
to want to move to another country (40 percent), and Uzbeks are the
least likely at just 5 percent, compared with an average of 15 percent
across the 12 former Soviet republics.
The main reasons given for a desire to emigrate are economic in
nature, with better living conditions cited as the priority for 52
percent of respondents. It is generally believed that migrants from
the post-Soviet region emigrate in order to provide a better future
for their children. However, in the country where this is cited most
often as the primary factor, Turkmenistan, just 6 percent of the
population identified themselves as potential migrants. A similar
trend can be seen in Armenia, where 40 percent want to move but only
13 percent state their children's future as the main reason.
Looking specifically at the South Caucasus, as mentioned above,
Armenians have the greatest desire to emigrate, and 14 percent of
respondents in Azerbaijan and Georgia share this same wish. However,
the motivations across the three South Caucasian countries differ.
South Caucasus' migration mosaic
In addition to the Gallup poll reviewed above, the Caucasus Research
Resource Centers' (CRRC) Caucasus Barometer surveys are useful for
understanding the changing dynamics across different socio-economic
factors in addition to migration. According to the Caucasus Barometer
(2011), interest in temporary migration stands at 25 percent among
Armenians, 16 percent among Azerbaijanis and 11 percent among
Georgians.
The different historical, political and economic narratives of each
country cast a different light on their populations' motivations for
staying or leaving. For example, in Armenia, since 2008, the trend of
temporary and permanent migration has increased mainly due to the
world economic crisis, which has weakened the country's position
internationally. Data shows that migration spiked in 2008 compared to
previous years. However, according to the Armenian State Migration
Service, over 11 months of 2012, the difference between leavers and
returnees was about 72,000 people, from which it can be deduced that
approximately 70,000-80,000 people are leaving the country annually. A
more worrying trend is that unlike migration from Armenia in the past,
the current migrants are much younger and much more likely to leave
permanently than older migrants; this adds to the problem of the
country's declining population. The problem seems somewhat
intractable; Armenia's economic situation is the primary motivation
for migration, and currently the government does not have sufficient
funding to resolve the various socio-economic problems. Borrowing
money is tricky, given that massive borrowing from abroad has more
than doubled the country's public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP)
ratio, which now stands at around 40 percent and leaves very little
room for further borrowing. Meanwhile, according to the preliminary
2011 Caucasus Barometer, socio-economic problems are those
consistently prompting people to leave.
In the case of Azerbaijan, according to the 2011 Caucasus Barometer's
data, 21 percent of respondents are interested in permanent
emigration, and 52 percent have an interest in moving away on a
temporary basis. According to official data, Azerbaijan now has a
positive net migration rate thanks to its stabilized economy. From
2008-2010, 4,700 people left the country and 8,100 people arrived for
permanent residence. The country's strong energy sector means that the
government is better positioned to balance or stop permanent migration
abroad than its counterparts in Armenia and Georgia. Looking at the
different reasons given by potential migrants, based on the
preliminary data from the 2011 Caucasus Barometer, of the 21 percent
of respondents who want to emigrate permanently, 29 percent are job
seekers, 34 percent do not trust the educational system, 30 percent do
not trust the healthcare system and 28 percent are in the younger age
bracket (18-35). The Azerbaijanis who want to emigrate permanently are
not, in general, the country's top educational achievers, and in this
sense brain drain is not the primary concern. On the other hand, there
are cases of citizens going abroad for higher education and seeking
asylum and/or citizenship once there.
In Georgia, the 2011 Caucasus Barometer data shows that just 6 percent
of respondents are interested in permanent migration, but the
percentage interested in temporary migration jumps up to 47 percent.
To understand this dynamic, it is important to take into account the
significant achievements of the Georgian government over the last
seven to nine years, namely the liberalization of movement to EU
countries and the support for circular migration. A crucial factor is
the establishment of a legal regime that supports the employment of
Georgian citizens abroad. On the other hand, the 2008 August War with
Russia negatively affected the status of Georgians living and working
in Russia. The conflict also significantly damaged bilateral trade,
badly affecting the domestic socio-economic situation. However, the
government has sought to mitigate this effect by making Georgia more
attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI). Indeed, migration
issues are far from a top priority for a country when it faces a wide
range of territorial, political and economic problems, despite the
fact that the EU is putting pressure on Georgia to implement a
migration policy based on the EU model. Given Tbilisi's EU-integration
aims, the government is mindful of pressure from the EU on this issue.
Finally, what is clear is that migration poses an increasing challenge
for the South Caucasus region. Taking into account the various factors
at play -- aging populations, lower birth rates, illegal immigration
and other country-specific issues -- there is a risk that in the mid
to long term, migration could become an important regional security
challenge.
From: A. Papazian