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RAFFI HOVANNISIAN'S DILEMMA
On the eve of the election of the Council of Elders Raffi Hovannisian
is in a stalemate. Having rejected an active pre-election campaign,
Raffi Hovannisian has left the field to the RPA and PAP. In addition,
the ANC and the ARF have joined the PAP.
In Yerevan Raffi Hovannisian will receive votes. After April 9 lots
of people thought he had lost his voters' confidence but after a wave
of disappointment lots of people asked themselves what would have
happened if Raffi had refused to go to the genocide memorial with the
chief of police. They would never storm 26 Baghramyan Avenue because
the revolution was not ready but people would suffer again.
The second wave of soberness has most probably returned Raffi's votes
but the question is how he will use them. If Raffi Hovannisian joins
non-governmental parties, he will help Vartan Oskanian be mayor of
Yerevan. If he decides not to help, he may not get 50% together with
them and Taron Margaryan will be reelected.
There is a difficult choice between Taron Margaryan and Vartan
Oskanian. Most probably, there is no difference between them for
Raffi Hovannisian and many others. There is a difference between
Levon Ter-Petrosyan and the ARF, they think it is possible to end
Serzh Sargsyan's monopoly. But does it make a difference?
Non-governmental parties are likely to cooperate after the election.
If the RPA does not get 41%, and the PAP, ANC and ARF do not get 50%
together, the votes that Heritage will get will be crucial. By the way,
those votes may be many. And Raffi Hovannisian will have a chance to
overcome the stalemate, turning round the chessboard.
Naira Hayrumyan 13:50 16/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29638
On the eve of the election of the Council of Elders Raffi Hovannisian
is in a stalemate. Having rejected an active pre-election campaign,
Raffi Hovannisian has left the field to the RPA and PAP. In addition,
the ANC and the ARF have joined the PAP.
In Yerevan Raffi Hovannisian will receive votes. After April 9 lots
of people thought he had lost his voters' confidence but after a wave
of disappointment lots of people asked themselves what would have
happened if Raffi had refused to go to the genocide memorial with the
chief of police. They would never storm 26 Baghramyan Avenue because
the revolution was not ready but people would suffer again.
The second wave of soberness has most probably returned Raffi's votes
but the question is how he will use them. If Raffi Hovannisian joins
non-governmental parties, he will help Vartan Oskanian be mayor of
Yerevan. If he decides not to help, he may not get 50% together with
them and Taron Margaryan will be reelected.
There is a difficult choice between Taron Margaryan and Vartan
Oskanian. Most probably, there is no difference between them for
Raffi Hovannisian and many others. There is a difference between
Levon Ter-Petrosyan and the ARF, they think it is possible to end
Serzh Sargsyan's monopoly. But does it make a difference?
Non-governmental parties are likely to cooperate after the election.
If the RPA does not get 41%, and the PAP, ANC and ARF do not get 50%
together, the votes that Heritage will get will be crucial. By the way,
those votes may be many. And Raffi Hovannisian will have a chance to
overcome the stalemate, turning round the chessboard.
Naira Hayrumyan 13:50 16/04/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/29638