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A CRISIS BETWEEN TEHRAN AND BAKU: IMPENDING OR IMAGINED?
Today's Zaman, Turkey
April 19 2013
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
Recent developments in Iran-Azerbaijan relations have re-opened
questions about a possible return to crisis. Anyone monitoring
local developments in the South Caucasus - and it is not, it seems,
on the radar of the international media -- is aware that Iran has
issued several threats targeting Azerbaijan. Iran's Kayhan daily
newspaper, which has close ties to Iran's clerics, has called for a
public referendum in Azerbaijan on whether to join Iran. A group of
Iranian deputies is preparing a bill calling for the renegotiation
of the 1828 Russia-Persia Treaty of Turkmenchay, which determined
the current Iran-Azerbaijan border.
Iran's paranoia about foreign relations is somewhat understandable,
given the escalating tensions over Iranian nuclear ambitions. A
US Senate resolution pledging the use of military force and other
sanctions in support of Israel against Iran has cleared the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee and seems likely to pass. Iran feels
increasingly insecure in advance of the upcoming presidential
election. On the other hand, in the Middle East the US is championing
a new agenda whereby President Barack Obama has succeeded in restoring
ties between Tel-Aviv and Ankara. In Tehran, policymakers understand
that these moves are not empty rhetoric. Iran is struggling against
the combined weight of international and internal instability, which
in turn are creating feelings of political paranoia. There is a risk
that this could turn into a popular uprising during the election.
But this doesn't quite explain why Azerbaijan has become a focus for
Iranian paranoia; furthermore, Iran is no stranger to international
opprobrium and tensions. In this light, it is worth looking more
closely at recent developments.
First of all, in mid-March, an Armenian-sponsored radio station began
broadcasting "The Voice of Talyshistan" radio program out of Shusha,
an Azerbaijani city under Armenian occupation. The Armenian media
asserts that the station's main goal is to protect the rights of
the Talysh, an ethnic minority group living in Azerbaijan. There is
no clear evidence that Iran is financially or otherwise supporting
this broadcast and indeed, the Iranian side officially rejected
such accusations on March 28. But several political and academic
conferences and seminars have been organized with Iranian support
and in 2008 the editors of the local newspaper Tolyshi Sado (Voice of
the Talysh) confessed that Iran was helping to finance the newspaper
and bringing religious books to Azerbaijan. One member of the paper's
editorial board has been imprisoned in Azerbaijan and just recently
another employee was sentenced, though apparently on unrelated grounds.
Further problems arose when the National Liberation Front of South
Azerbaijan hosted a conference in Baku on March 30 titled "The Future
of Modern South Azerbaijan" with speakers from Iran's Azerbaijani
diaspora and former deputies. During the conference, one of the
speakers suggested that Azerbaijan should change its policy toward
Azerbaijanis living in Iran. Following this conference, the Iranian
Foreign Minister summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to Tehran and
sent an official communication. Official Baku stated that they had no
ties to the conference. However, in "response," Iranian deputies, as
mentioned above, seek to renegotiate the 19th century border agreement,
claiming Azerbaijan as Iranian territory.
The conference in Baku, however, was planned several months prior to
the current tensions and given that the participants and speakers are
not in line with government policies on numerous issues, it cannot
be claimed that the meeting had government support. On the matter of
the Talysh radio station, there is no clear evidence of Iranian ties,
but it is clear that this development serves Iranian interests. For
instance, in January the Azerbaijani-American community from Iran
issued a petition to the Obama administration declaring that Iran
is violating the basic rights of Iranian Azerbaijanis. In addition,
in recent months, Azerbaijanis exiled from Iran have sought to gain
support for Iranian-Azerbaijanis, trying to launch television and
radio programs abroad. The Western media has remained largely silent
on the issue of the violation of the rights of Azerbaijanis in Iran
and few outside of the Iran know of these violations. It might be that
in this sense it is in Iran's interests to support the Talysh radio
station in order to influence this group and use this as a means to
provoke Azerbaijan and increase the threat of ethnic separatism.
Recent developments show that ahead of the presidential election in
Iran, the local Azeri population is seen by the regime as a potential
source of trouble, as there are signs that a political awakening is
underway. At a recent football match (Tractor of Tabriz) local fans
started chanting, "South Azerbaijan is not Iran." They were arrested.
In this light, the Iranian deputies' threatened legislation does not
represent a serious risk, but rather shows how worried Iran is about
a political awakening of its Azerbaijani minority.
Last but not least, a global perspective suggests that Iran's fears
were born following March 21, when in Turkey a new period of internal
stability was launched via an agreement with the Kurds and first step
of reconciliation with Israel was taken. However, Iran is worried that
Turkey may not act to stop military interventions in Iran, following
the deterioration in bilateral relations since the Syrian crisis. In
addition, Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister will be the highest-level
official to visit Israel since independence when he travels there
next week. Thus, Iran will fear ethnic uprisings by both Kurdish and
Azerbaijani minorities during the run-up to the election, as well as
focusing its efforts on interfering with the US' "strategic game,"
whereby Tehran tries to pursue a strategy that, in the words of
a Persian proverb, is "a lion at home and a fox abroad." But under
tough domestic economic conditions which are likely to worsen, there
is a significant risk of internal demands for a regime change.
Today's Zaman, Turkey
April 19 2013
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
Recent developments in Iran-Azerbaijan relations have re-opened
questions about a possible return to crisis. Anyone monitoring
local developments in the South Caucasus - and it is not, it seems,
on the radar of the international media -- is aware that Iran has
issued several threats targeting Azerbaijan. Iran's Kayhan daily
newspaper, which has close ties to Iran's clerics, has called for a
public referendum in Azerbaijan on whether to join Iran. A group of
Iranian deputies is preparing a bill calling for the renegotiation
of the 1828 Russia-Persia Treaty of Turkmenchay, which determined
the current Iran-Azerbaijan border.
Iran's paranoia about foreign relations is somewhat understandable,
given the escalating tensions over Iranian nuclear ambitions. A
US Senate resolution pledging the use of military force and other
sanctions in support of Israel against Iran has cleared the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee and seems likely to pass. Iran feels
increasingly insecure in advance of the upcoming presidential
election. On the other hand, in the Middle East the US is championing
a new agenda whereby President Barack Obama has succeeded in restoring
ties between Tel-Aviv and Ankara. In Tehran, policymakers understand
that these moves are not empty rhetoric. Iran is struggling against
the combined weight of international and internal instability, which
in turn are creating feelings of political paranoia. There is a risk
that this could turn into a popular uprising during the election.
But this doesn't quite explain why Azerbaijan has become a focus for
Iranian paranoia; furthermore, Iran is no stranger to international
opprobrium and tensions. In this light, it is worth looking more
closely at recent developments.
First of all, in mid-March, an Armenian-sponsored radio station began
broadcasting "The Voice of Talyshistan" radio program out of Shusha,
an Azerbaijani city under Armenian occupation. The Armenian media
asserts that the station's main goal is to protect the rights of
the Talysh, an ethnic minority group living in Azerbaijan. There is
no clear evidence that Iran is financially or otherwise supporting
this broadcast and indeed, the Iranian side officially rejected
such accusations on March 28. But several political and academic
conferences and seminars have been organized with Iranian support
and in 2008 the editors of the local newspaper Tolyshi Sado (Voice of
the Talysh) confessed that Iran was helping to finance the newspaper
and bringing religious books to Azerbaijan. One member of the paper's
editorial board has been imprisoned in Azerbaijan and just recently
another employee was sentenced, though apparently on unrelated grounds.
Further problems arose when the National Liberation Front of South
Azerbaijan hosted a conference in Baku on March 30 titled "The Future
of Modern South Azerbaijan" with speakers from Iran's Azerbaijani
diaspora and former deputies. During the conference, one of the
speakers suggested that Azerbaijan should change its policy toward
Azerbaijanis living in Iran. Following this conference, the Iranian
Foreign Minister summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to Tehran and
sent an official communication. Official Baku stated that they had no
ties to the conference. However, in "response," Iranian deputies, as
mentioned above, seek to renegotiate the 19th century border agreement,
claiming Azerbaijan as Iranian territory.
The conference in Baku, however, was planned several months prior to
the current tensions and given that the participants and speakers are
not in line with government policies on numerous issues, it cannot
be claimed that the meeting had government support. On the matter of
the Talysh radio station, there is no clear evidence of Iranian ties,
but it is clear that this development serves Iranian interests. For
instance, in January the Azerbaijani-American community from Iran
issued a petition to the Obama administration declaring that Iran
is violating the basic rights of Iranian Azerbaijanis. In addition,
in recent months, Azerbaijanis exiled from Iran have sought to gain
support for Iranian-Azerbaijanis, trying to launch television and
radio programs abroad. The Western media has remained largely silent
on the issue of the violation of the rights of Azerbaijanis in Iran
and few outside of the Iran know of these violations. It might be that
in this sense it is in Iran's interests to support the Talysh radio
station in order to influence this group and use this as a means to
provoke Azerbaijan and increase the threat of ethnic separatism.
Recent developments show that ahead of the presidential election in
Iran, the local Azeri population is seen by the regime as a potential
source of trouble, as there are signs that a political awakening is
underway. At a recent football match (Tractor of Tabriz) local fans
started chanting, "South Azerbaijan is not Iran." They were arrested.
In this light, the Iranian deputies' threatened legislation does not
represent a serious risk, but rather shows how worried Iran is about
a political awakening of its Azerbaijani minority.
Last but not least, a global perspective suggests that Iran's fears
were born following March 21, when in Turkey a new period of internal
stability was launched via an agreement with the Kurds and first step
of reconciliation with Israel was taken. However, Iran is worried that
Turkey may not act to stop military interventions in Iran, following
the deterioration in bilateral relations since the Syrian crisis. In
addition, Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister will be the highest-level
official to visit Israel since independence when he travels there
next week. Thus, Iran will fear ethnic uprisings by both Kurdish and
Azerbaijani minorities during the run-up to the election, as well as
focusing its efforts on interfering with the US' "strategic game,"
whereby Tehran tries to pursue a strategy that, in the words of
a Persian proverb, is "a lion at home and a fox abroad." But under
tough domestic economic conditions which are likely to worsen, there
is a significant risk of internal demands for a regime change.