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ARMENIA SHOULD HAVE A HEALTHY READING OF TURKEY'S 2015 STRATEGY
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
April 23 2013
Would you be surprised if I told you that Turkey is Armenia's
third-biggest trade partner, I asked my colleagues at the Hurriyet
Daily News. "Of course we wouldn't. Turkey is one of Armenia's few
outlets to the world," they told me.
As veteran journalist Sedat Ergin told me the other day, we do suffer
from time to time from professorial deformation and assume that what
we know is known to everybody else.
It still sounded a little awkward to hear this statistical data,
given the fact that the two countries have no diplomatic relations;
the borders are closed and that Armenia keeps complaining to the
whole world about how it suffers under Turkish trade embargo and
how uncivilized it is to keep borders closed at an age of fast
globalization.
A quick Google search revealed that Turkish and Armenian businesswomen
met in Yerevan at the beginning of April to inquire about ways
to increase trade relations. The news agency that reported about
this meeting pointed to the fact that Turkish-Armenian trade in
January-February 2013 was $24.8 million, increasing by 7.2 percent
from a year before, sourcing the Armenian national statistical service.
These inputs are important as we are yet in that period of the year
that makes us focus on Turkey-Armenia relations, as Armenians prepare
to commemorate on April 24 the anniversary of the 1915 killings
that they consider amounting to genocide. While not excluding the
possibility of surprises, the Turkish Foreign Ministry is not expecting
this year a major action on the part of third countries that would
create tension in bilateral ties. But Turkish officials are aware
that this might be like the silence before the storm, since they are
also aware of the activities geared toward 2015. No one, of course,
should expect the Turkish government to remain idle regarding these
activities.
No doubt Turkey does have a strategy and it will be very important how
this strategy is read and analyzed by Yerevan. First of all, Yerevan
should not see Turkey's action plan just as a "counterstrategy" to
neutralize Armenians' efforts for the recognition of the 1915 killings
as genocide. Obviously Turkish officials will spare no effort to
provide their counterarguments against Armenians' thesis. But Turkey's
strategy will go beyond mere counteroffensive efforts. It would most
probably seek and even force a window of opportunity that would lead
to normalized relations with Armenia, in parallel to mending ties
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And that's where Armenia should not fall in the same trap as the Greek
Cypriots. The Greek Cypriot administration thought and still believes
that it could impose a peace deal on its own terms as Turkey would
bow to pressure for the sake of entering to the EU. While Turkish-EU
relations have stalled seemingly due to the Cyprus question, we all
know that accession talks are not going forward not because of Cyprus
but because of the big European powers. And so far Turkey has not
changed its Cyprus policy.
By the same token, Armenians should not expect Turkey to change
its policy of making normalization of its relations with Yerevan
conditional on the solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. The
last time Ankara tried a slight disengagement between the two, we
know how it ended.
In short: Turkey's efforts to seek and even force an opening that
could lead to both Ankara-Yerevan and Yerevan-Baku normalization will
not stem out of fear of Armenians' 2015 strategy; on the contrary
Turkey might want to divert the international attention to a frozen
conflict in the Caucasus, the continuation of which only serves the
interests of big powers but not of the regional ones.
April/23/2013
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/armenia-should-have-a-healthy-reading-of-turkeys-2015-strategy.aspx?pageID=238&nID=45416&NewsCatID=412
From: Baghdasarian
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
April 23 2013
Would you be surprised if I told you that Turkey is Armenia's
third-biggest trade partner, I asked my colleagues at the Hurriyet
Daily News. "Of course we wouldn't. Turkey is one of Armenia's few
outlets to the world," they told me.
As veteran journalist Sedat Ergin told me the other day, we do suffer
from time to time from professorial deformation and assume that what
we know is known to everybody else.
It still sounded a little awkward to hear this statistical data,
given the fact that the two countries have no diplomatic relations;
the borders are closed and that Armenia keeps complaining to the
whole world about how it suffers under Turkish trade embargo and
how uncivilized it is to keep borders closed at an age of fast
globalization.
A quick Google search revealed that Turkish and Armenian businesswomen
met in Yerevan at the beginning of April to inquire about ways
to increase trade relations. The news agency that reported about
this meeting pointed to the fact that Turkish-Armenian trade in
January-February 2013 was $24.8 million, increasing by 7.2 percent
from a year before, sourcing the Armenian national statistical service.
These inputs are important as we are yet in that period of the year
that makes us focus on Turkey-Armenia relations, as Armenians prepare
to commemorate on April 24 the anniversary of the 1915 killings
that they consider amounting to genocide. While not excluding the
possibility of surprises, the Turkish Foreign Ministry is not expecting
this year a major action on the part of third countries that would
create tension in bilateral ties. But Turkish officials are aware
that this might be like the silence before the storm, since they are
also aware of the activities geared toward 2015. No one, of course,
should expect the Turkish government to remain idle regarding these
activities.
No doubt Turkey does have a strategy and it will be very important how
this strategy is read and analyzed by Yerevan. First of all, Yerevan
should not see Turkey's action plan just as a "counterstrategy" to
neutralize Armenians' efforts for the recognition of the 1915 killings
as genocide. Obviously Turkish officials will spare no effort to
provide their counterarguments against Armenians' thesis. But Turkey's
strategy will go beyond mere counteroffensive efforts. It would most
probably seek and even force a window of opportunity that would lead
to normalized relations with Armenia, in parallel to mending ties
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And that's where Armenia should not fall in the same trap as the Greek
Cypriots. The Greek Cypriot administration thought and still believes
that it could impose a peace deal on its own terms as Turkey would
bow to pressure for the sake of entering to the EU. While Turkish-EU
relations have stalled seemingly due to the Cyprus question, we all
know that accession talks are not going forward not because of Cyprus
but because of the big European powers. And so far Turkey has not
changed its Cyprus policy.
By the same token, Armenians should not expect Turkey to change
its policy of making normalization of its relations with Yerevan
conditional on the solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. The
last time Ankara tried a slight disengagement between the two, we
know how it ended.
In short: Turkey's efforts to seek and even force an opening that
could lead to both Ankara-Yerevan and Yerevan-Baku normalization will
not stem out of fear of Armenians' 2015 strategy; on the contrary
Turkey might want to divert the international attention to a frozen
conflict in the Caucasus, the continuation of which only serves the
interests of big powers but not of the regional ones.
April/23/2013
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/armenia-should-have-a-healthy-reading-of-turkeys-2015-strategy.aspx?pageID=238&nID=45416&NewsCatID=412
From: Baghdasarian