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TURKEY: IS ANKARA READY FOR APRIL 24, 2015?
EurasiaNet.org, NY
April 24 2013
April 24, 2013 - 11:26am, by Yigal Schleifer
Compared to previous years, this April 24 -- the day that commemorates
the 1915 destruction of the Ottoman Armenians -- has arrived with few
diplomatic problems for Turkey. There were no resolutions in other
countries' legislative bodies recognizing the 1915 events as a genocide
to fight off and no foreign governments to spar with over the issue.
But could this merely be the calm before the storm? In two years,
which will mark the centennial of the 1915 events, Ankara will likely
be facing a very different picture, with preparations already being
made to use the occasion to, as one Armenian website put it, "take
Genocide recognition to a new dimension."
Turkey's policymakers are not unaware of the preparations being made
for 2015. In fact, as the Hurriyet Daily News's Barcin Yinanc suggests,
they have a careful plan for how to deal with what's coming.
>>From her report:
No one, of course, should expect the Turkish government to remain
idle regarding these activities.
No doubt Turkey does have a strategy and it will be very important how
this strategy is read and analyzed by Yerevan. First of all, Yerevan
should not see Turkey's action plan just as a "counterstrategy" to
neutralize Armenians' efforts for the recognition of the 1915 killings
as genocide. Obviously Turkish officials will spare no effort to
provide their counterarguments against Armenians' thesis. But Turkey's
strategy will go beyond mere counteroffensive efforts. It would most
probably seek and even force a window of opportunity that would lead
to normalized relations with Armenia, in parallel to mending ties
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And that's where Armenia should not fall in the same trap as the Greek
Cypriots. The Greek Cypriot administration thought and still believes
that it could impose a peace deal on its own terms as Turkey would
bow to pressure for the sake of entering to the EU. While Turkish-EU
relations have stalled seemingly due to the Cyprus question, we all
know that accession talks are not going forward not because of Cyprus
but because of the big European powers. And so far Turkey has not
changed its Cyprus policy.
By the same token, Armenians should not expect Turkey to change
its policy of making normalization of its relations with Yerevan
conditional on the solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. The
last time Ankara tried a slight disengagement between the two, we
know how it ended.
While it's comforting to hear that Ankara has a strategy in mind,
the triple-track approach Yinanc lays out -- fight Armenian genocide
recognition efforts while at the same time pushing Yerevan towards
normalized relations with Turkey and resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue -- seems like one that will likely bear little but bitter fruit.
Meanwhile, while Ankara's official policy regarding the 1915 events
remain unchanged and will likely only harden as we approach 2015, more
positive signs can be seen on the domestic front in Turkey. As Today's
Zaman reports, this year will mark the first time that international
organizations will join the increasingly growing commemoration event
that now take place inside Turkey. Writing for the Al-Monitor website,
human rights lawyer Orhan Kemal Cengiz, who has been very active on
the Armenian issue, takes a look at some of the other ways in which
the "taboo" over the issue has been breaking down in Turkey.
Ultimately, what we are left with is something of schizophrenic Turkish
approach regarding the Armenian issue. On the domestic front there
is progress, while on the international front there will likely be a
more concerted effort to fight the Armenian claims. Writing in Today's
Zaman, columnist Yavuz Baydar -- who suggests Turkey has had a kind of
"glasnost" when it comes to confronting some of the difficult issues
of that past -- offers his take on this dynamic:
Turkey's glasnost has been instrumental to defeat the taboo of the last
century in Turkey. Today, on April 24, people will gather in Adana,
İzmir, Ankara, Batman, Bodrum, Dersim, Diyarbekir and İstanbul.
Every year, the number of participants has increased: from 700 in
2010 to 3,000 last year.
But the question is whether Turkish glasnost, if successful in sorting
out the Kurdish peace process, will also help lead to a proper apology
from Ankara in 2015.
No one is sure. The rapprochement with Armenia being frozen, the
pressures of a rich Azerbaijan and its lobbies having increased and
the lack of a culture of "institutionalized repentance" are all reasons
for pessimism. They are also backed by behind-the-scenes preparations
for watering down the memory of the tragedy, by focusing all attention
in 2015 on World War I and Ottoman suffering.
It is, of course, on the wrong track. The real virtue is in the double
apology: first on the tragedy, second on the denial.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66872
EurasiaNet.org, NY
April 24 2013
April 24, 2013 - 11:26am, by Yigal Schleifer
Compared to previous years, this April 24 -- the day that commemorates
the 1915 destruction of the Ottoman Armenians -- has arrived with few
diplomatic problems for Turkey. There were no resolutions in other
countries' legislative bodies recognizing the 1915 events as a genocide
to fight off and no foreign governments to spar with over the issue.
But could this merely be the calm before the storm? In two years,
which will mark the centennial of the 1915 events, Ankara will likely
be facing a very different picture, with preparations already being
made to use the occasion to, as one Armenian website put it, "take
Genocide recognition to a new dimension."
Turkey's policymakers are not unaware of the preparations being made
for 2015. In fact, as the Hurriyet Daily News's Barcin Yinanc suggests,
they have a careful plan for how to deal with what's coming.
>>From her report:
No one, of course, should expect the Turkish government to remain
idle regarding these activities.
No doubt Turkey does have a strategy and it will be very important how
this strategy is read and analyzed by Yerevan. First of all, Yerevan
should not see Turkey's action plan just as a "counterstrategy" to
neutralize Armenians' efforts for the recognition of the 1915 killings
as genocide. Obviously Turkish officials will spare no effort to
provide their counterarguments against Armenians' thesis. But Turkey's
strategy will go beyond mere counteroffensive efforts. It would most
probably seek and even force a window of opportunity that would lead
to normalized relations with Armenia, in parallel to mending ties
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And that's where Armenia should not fall in the same trap as the Greek
Cypriots. The Greek Cypriot administration thought and still believes
that it could impose a peace deal on its own terms as Turkey would
bow to pressure for the sake of entering to the EU. While Turkish-EU
relations have stalled seemingly due to the Cyprus question, we all
know that accession talks are not going forward not because of Cyprus
but because of the big European powers. And so far Turkey has not
changed its Cyprus policy.
By the same token, Armenians should not expect Turkey to change
its policy of making normalization of its relations with Yerevan
conditional on the solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. The
last time Ankara tried a slight disengagement between the two, we
know how it ended.
While it's comforting to hear that Ankara has a strategy in mind,
the triple-track approach Yinanc lays out -- fight Armenian genocide
recognition efforts while at the same time pushing Yerevan towards
normalized relations with Turkey and resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue -- seems like one that will likely bear little but bitter fruit.
Meanwhile, while Ankara's official policy regarding the 1915 events
remain unchanged and will likely only harden as we approach 2015, more
positive signs can be seen on the domestic front in Turkey. As Today's
Zaman reports, this year will mark the first time that international
organizations will join the increasingly growing commemoration event
that now take place inside Turkey. Writing for the Al-Monitor website,
human rights lawyer Orhan Kemal Cengiz, who has been very active on
the Armenian issue, takes a look at some of the other ways in which
the "taboo" over the issue has been breaking down in Turkey.
Ultimately, what we are left with is something of schizophrenic Turkish
approach regarding the Armenian issue. On the domestic front there
is progress, while on the international front there will likely be a
more concerted effort to fight the Armenian claims. Writing in Today's
Zaman, columnist Yavuz Baydar -- who suggests Turkey has had a kind of
"glasnost" when it comes to confronting some of the difficult issues
of that past -- offers his take on this dynamic:
Turkey's glasnost has been instrumental to defeat the taboo of the last
century in Turkey. Today, on April 24, people will gather in Adana,
İzmir, Ankara, Batman, Bodrum, Dersim, Diyarbekir and İstanbul.
Every year, the number of participants has increased: from 700 in
2010 to 3,000 last year.
But the question is whether Turkish glasnost, if successful in sorting
out the Kurdish peace process, will also help lead to a proper apology
from Ankara in 2015.
No one is sure. The rapprochement with Armenia being frozen, the
pressures of a rich Azerbaijan and its lobbies having increased and
the lack of a culture of "institutionalized repentance" are all reasons
for pessimism. They are also backed by behind-the-scenes preparations
for watering down the memory of the tragedy, by focusing all attention
in 2015 on World War I and Ottoman suffering.
It is, of course, on the wrong track. The real virtue is in the double
apology: first on the tragedy, second on the denial.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66872