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THE EU-ARMENIA ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT AND MOSCOW'S PLAYBOOK
Today's Zaman, Turkey
July 31 2013
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
A week ago, Armenia and the European Union concluded negotiations on
a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The DCFTA is an
integral part of Armenia's Association Agreement, which it expects
to sign at November's Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius.
Unsurprisingly, the negotiations have intensified the debate about
how Armenian-EU relations will be balanced with Yerevan-Moscow ties.
The essential question among Armenian experts is how Moscow will
react towards Armenia. According to Brussels, signing an Association
Agreement will essentially preclude Yerevan's membership in not only
Russia's Customs Union but also the so-called Eurasian Union. Beyond
the challenge of Moscow's reaction, the debate also encompasses the
possible economic and political benefits for Armenia, as well as the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
>From the perspective of the Armenian ruling elite, there are several
aspects of the agreement that will strengthen the country economically
and politically:
First of all, the EU's political and material support will help
stabilize the Armenian economy. But on the other hand, the current
economic crisis in the eurozone prevents the EU from making any
grand gestures of financial support. By contrast, Russia's overall
investment in the Armenian economy since independence is close to $3.3
billion, equal to more than 40 percent of all foreign investment. It
is true that after Russia, France and Greece are the second and third
biggest investors, but this is due to national rather than EU-related
initiatives. Furthermore, the key difference is that Moscow used its
investments as a tool to gain economic and political dependence on
Yerevan's part.
Second, the Armenian authorities will argue that the benefits of the
DCFTA agreement will be limited by the border closures. The reference
here is not to the closed Armenian-Azerbaijani borders, but to the
Turkish-Armenian border. Yerevan believes that after signing the
Association Agreement, they can ask Europe to put pressure on Turkey
to open the border. Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan indicated this
aim in speeches at the end of June in Poland and in early July in
Moldova. In the latter, Sarksyan said that the free trade agreement
(FTA) is unworkable if the Armenian-Turkish border remains closed
and called for action by the EU. "We think that the European Union
should seriously address the issue of closed borders because their
existence cannot make trade with the EU's customs union effective."
The third issue is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. By signing an
Association Agreement before Azerbaijan, Yerevan hopes to avoid
the inclusion of the "territorial integrity" provision among
its commitments. This is despite the fact that among Yerevan's
intelligentsia, it is believed that the EU's involvement in the
conflict resolution is crucial and should be increased. If the EU does
not make serious commitments regarding a Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
resolution, it risks further criticism from Azerbaijan, namely that EU
member countries have double standards with respect to Azerbaijan's
territorial integrity. Azerbaijan wants an agreement that includes a
commitment from the EU: that it will take act as a guarantor for the
second phase of Nagorno-Karabakh status negotiations if the parties
reach a political solution. The Yerevan-EU and Baku-EU agreements,
by including commitments for conflict resolution and post-conflict
resolution, will mean that both countries are relying on a "more
results, financial support" system of conflict resolution. If
the EU signs an agreement with Armenia without these commitments,
Azerbaijan's next question will be about the geographical delimitation
of EU-Armenian trade. The concern there is that the de facto regime
in Nagorno-Karabakh could benefit from the agreement and use it to
bolster its prospects for future survival.
Moscow's reaction: 'Dog in the manger'?
The draft text of the association agreement has not been disclosed
despite the recommendation of European Commissioner for Enlargement
and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule. Thus the precise details
of the Nagorno-Karabakh provisions are unknown to the public. The
tricky question, much debated among the Armenian public, remains
Moscow's potential reaction. Most experts anticipate a "dog in the
manger" position. In order to prevent Armenia from becoming closer
to the EU, Russia has, for instance, recently increased the price of
gas exports for Armenia. And when an Armenian truck driver recently
caused a fatal road accident in Russia, Russian authorities dealt
with him harshly. These have been cited as indicators of Moscow's
dissatisfaction. Interestingly -- and unexpectedly -- both cases gave
rise to protests in front of the Russian embassy in Yerevan.
Moscow seems less concerned than Armenians might have expected.
Russia's position is that the agreement does not represent a choice
between the EU and Russia. The belief in Moscow is that there is
no "either/or" choice for Armenia. It does seem clear, though,
that Armenia must acknowledge who is currently more influential in
the region and in Armenia; who is more important and necessary for
Armenians -- Russia or the EU?
Meanwhile, there is not yet enough information to establish Russia's
official position, which will likely become clearer through the
developments in the next month. It is expected but not confirmed
that President Sarksyan will visit Moscow following Russian President
Vladimir Putin's "East Expedition"-- visits to Azerbaijan and Iran.
Clearly, it would be wrong to treat Armenia's Association Agreement
with the EU as a geopolitical choice; Yerevan made that choice two
decades ago. Moreover Armenia is not in a sufficiently strong position
to make a final choice regarding its ultimate political alignment. For
now, until the text of the association agreement is disclosed and
until Russia reveals an official position, the situation bears strong
resemblance to the Russian saying, "All cats are grey in the dark."
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=322382
From: A. Papazian
Today's Zaman, Turkey
July 31 2013
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
A week ago, Armenia and the European Union concluded negotiations on
a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The DCFTA is an
integral part of Armenia's Association Agreement, which it expects
to sign at November's Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius.
Unsurprisingly, the negotiations have intensified the debate about
how Armenian-EU relations will be balanced with Yerevan-Moscow ties.
The essential question among Armenian experts is how Moscow will
react towards Armenia. According to Brussels, signing an Association
Agreement will essentially preclude Yerevan's membership in not only
Russia's Customs Union but also the so-called Eurasian Union. Beyond
the challenge of Moscow's reaction, the debate also encompasses the
possible economic and political benefits for Armenia, as well as the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
>From the perspective of the Armenian ruling elite, there are several
aspects of the agreement that will strengthen the country economically
and politically:
First of all, the EU's political and material support will help
stabilize the Armenian economy. But on the other hand, the current
economic crisis in the eurozone prevents the EU from making any
grand gestures of financial support. By contrast, Russia's overall
investment in the Armenian economy since independence is close to $3.3
billion, equal to more than 40 percent of all foreign investment. It
is true that after Russia, France and Greece are the second and third
biggest investors, but this is due to national rather than EU-related
initiatives. Furthermore, the key difference is that Moscow used its
investments as a tool to gain economic and political dependence on
Yerevan's part.
Second, the Armenian authorities will argue that the benefits of the
DCFTA agreement will be limited by the border closures. The reference
here is not to the closed Armenian-Azerbaijani borders, but to the
Turkish-Armenian border. Yerevan believes that after signing the
Association Agreement, they can ask Europe to put pressure on Turkey
to open the border. Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan indicated this
aim in speeches at the end of June in Poland and in early July in
Moldova. In the latter, Sarksyan said that the free trade agreement
(FTA) is unworkable if the Armenian-Turkish border remains closed
and called for action by the EU. "We think that the European Union
should seriously address the issue of closed borders because their
existence cannot make trade with the EU's customs union effective."
The third issue is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. By signing an
Association Agreement before Azerbaijan, Yerevan hopes to avoid
the inclusion of the "territorial integrity" provision among
its commitments. This is despite the fact that among Yerevan's
intelligentsia, it is believed that the EU's involvement in the
conflict resolution is crucial and should be increased. If the EU does
not make serious commitments regarding a Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
resolution, it risks further criticism from Azerbaijan, namely that EU
member countries have double standards with respect to Azerbaijan's
territorial integrity. Azerbaijan wants an agreement that includes a
commitment from the EU: that it will take act as a guarantor for the
second phase of Nagorno-Karabakh status negotiations if the parties
reach a political solution. The Yerevan-EU and Baku-EU agreements,
by including commitments for conflict resolution and post-conflict
resolution, will mean that both countries are relying on a "more
results, financial support" system of conflict resolution. If
the EU signs an agreement with Armenia without these commitments,
Azerbaijan's next question will be about the geographical delimitation
of EU-Armenian trade. The concern there is that the de facto regime
in Nagorno-Karabakh could benefit from the agreement and use it to
bolster its prospects for future survival.
Moscow's reaction: 'Dog in the manger'?
The draft text of the association agreement has not been disclosed
despite the recommendation of European Commissioner for Enlargement
and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan Fule. Thus the precise details
of the Nagorno-Karabakh provisions are unknown to the public. The
tricky question, much debated among the Armenian public, remains
Moscow's potential reaction. Most experts anticipate a "dog in the
manger" position. In order to prevent Armenia from becoming closer
to the EU, Russia has, for instance, recently increased the price of
gas exports for Armenia. And when an Armenian truck driver recently
caused a fatal road accident in Russia, Russian authorities dealt
with him harshly. These have been cited as indicators of Moscow's
dissatisfaction. Interestingly -- and unexpectedly -- both cases gave
rise to protests in front of the Russian embassy in Yerevan.
Moscow seems less concerned than Armenians might have expected.
Russia's position is that the agreement does not represent a choice
between the EU and Russia. The belief in Moscow is that there is
no "either/or" choice for Armenia. It does seem clear, though,
that Armenia must acknowledge who is currently more influential in
the region and in Armenia; who is more important and necessary for
Armenians -- Russia or the EU?
Meanwhile, there is not yet enough information to establish Russia's
official position, which will likely become clearer through the
developments in the next month. It is expected but not confirmed
that President Sarksyan will visit Moscow following Russian President
Vladimir Putin's "East Expedition"-- visits to Azerbaijan and Iran.
Clearly, it would be wrong to treat Armenia's Association Agreement
with the EU as a geopolitical choice; Yerevan made that choice two
decades ago. Moreover Armenia is not in a sufficiently strong position
to make a final choice regarding its ultimate political alignment. For
now, until the text of the association agreement is disclosed and
until Russia reveals an official position, the situation bears strong
resemblance to the Russian saying, "All cats are grey in the dark."
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=322382
From: A. Papazian