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2013 Marks A Milestone For South Caucasus Countries

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  • 2013 Marks A Milestone For South Caucasus Countries

    2013 MARKS A MILESTONE FOR SOUTH CAUCASUS COUNTRIES

    Vesnik Kavkaza, Russia
    Aug 13 2013

    13 August 2013 - 11:38am

    Alexei Vlasov exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

    2013 marks a milestone for the South Caucasus countries. The
    presidential elections in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are
    zero hour for political elites. In the 20 years since the collapse
    of the Soviet Union, according to pro-government experts, stable
    management systems have been established, the balance in relations
    between the authorities and the opposition was formed. However, every
    electorate cycle in the South Caucasus is always a stress situation
    for the society and the elite. 2013 is not an exception. Moreover,
    all countries of the region has a common tendency: the crisis of the
    old opposition and appearance of new and more radical rivals of the
    current authorities.

    Armenia

    The Republican Party's leader Serge Sargsyan won the February
    elections. It was predicted by the majority of international experts.

    However, the gap between him and the second place which was taken
    by the leader of the opposition party of Heritage, Raffi Ovannisyan,
    appeared to be small - 58% and 36.7%.

    The third president of Armenia was heavily criticized for clanship
    of the power, corruption, unsettlement of the huge amount of
    socio-economic problems, but his opponents had no alternative program
    of reforms. The elections turned into a fight between persons,
    not ideas.

    Ovannosyan is a politician from "the old charger", well-known in
    Armenia, but never being a contender for the presidential throne. He
    accumulated the significant part of the protest electorate because
    other promising candidates - the first president of Armenia Levon
    Ter-Petrosyan and one of the richest persons of the country Gagik
    Tsarukyan - decided not to take part in the elections. Many experts
    thought that the decision by the leader of Prosperous Armenia was
    about business. It was too risky for his business, and Tsarukyan
    wasn't ready for this.

    Anyway, for Ovannisyan the success will probably be the last, and the
    May elections to the city council of the Armenian capital confirmed
    this. The coalition "Hello, Yerevan" got only six seats in the Council
    of the Elders.

    Meanwhile, the internal problems of the Armenian society are still
    relevant. The outflow of the population from the country gains a
    disastrous character. Probably the elections of 2018 will have a
    different, tougher scenario. The country demands modernization -
    both political and socio-economic.

    Azerbaijan

    The elections of 2013 in Azerbaijan can become the last chance to
    consolidate "the old opposition" which almost 20 years tries to
    resist at first Heydar Aliyev, then his son, the current President
    Ilham Aliyev. The National Front, Musavat, some other party structures
    managed to gather into the National Council of Democratic Forces and
    even choose a candidate who deserves to represent the opposition -
    the popular social activist Rustam Ibragimbekov.

    However, it is still unclear whether Ibragimbekov will manage to
    register as a presidential candidate, because a criminal case was
    initiated against him and he has Russian citizenship. But the point
    is not in technical moments. Just like in Armenia, we have obvious
    contradiction between ambitions, rather than political programs.

    Behind-the-scene games play more significant role than competition in
    the public field. So, there is no guarantee that the leader of Musavat
    Isa Gambar won't decide to be a separate presidential candidate at
    the last moment. Moreover, that the program of NCDF is standard:
    fighting corruption, extension of the mass media freedoms, settlement
    of social issues - any opposition leader will match the mottos.

    At the same time, the so-called "net opposition activists"
    who represent little-known youth opposition organizations, can
    represent a bigger danger for the current authorities. They don't
    like behind-the-scene negotiations, they are more technological and
    have good contacts in embassies of Western countries. They can be a
    serious resource in the future.

    Nobody doubts that Ilham Aliyev will win the elections in October. The
    question is what lessons the authorities will learn from the victory.

    I think it is notable that there are a lot of discussions of staff
    shifts in Baku after the presidential elections.

    Georgia

    In October, the presidential elections will also take place in
    Georgia. But the Georgian situation is the most different in the
    political context of the South Caucasus. An actual diarchy can be seen
    here during the whole year, which is accompanied by fighting between
    President Mikhail Saakashvili and Premier Bidzina Ivanishvili. The
    rivalry will define the presidential election campaign.

    The point is not in who will win personally, but whose protege he
    or she will be. Anyway, a voter will be behind a candidate either
    Saakashvili or Ivanishvili. The intrigue is improved by Ivanishvili's
    promise to leave politics right after the presidential elections.

    However, many experts doubt that this promise will be fulfilled. No
    politician from the environment of Ivanishvili has such personal
    popularity and political weight, like the current prime minister
    of Georgia has, so his participation in the "big game" is the
    main guarantee from revenge of Saakashvili's supporters. As for
    candidates from the United National Movement, David Bakradze yields
    to such figures from the presidential team as Gigi Ugulava and
    Vano Merabishvili, from the rating point of view. But scandalous
    criminal cases shortened the list of possible candidates from the
    former party of power. In this context, Georgy Margvelashvili, the
    minister of science in Ivanishvili's government, seems to be a more
    promising candidate. At the same time, Nikolai Silayev, the senior
    scientist of the Center of Problems of the Caucasus and Regional
    Security under MGIMO, programs of Margvelashvili and Bakradze are
    similar. "The peculiarity of the game is that there are no alternatives
    to the program goals which Saakashvili stated: differing from Russia,
    integration into European-Atlantic structures, and liberal economy,"
    Silayev noted. The main problem is that whether settlement of diarchy
    can solve the problems Georgian society faces.

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/43799.html




    From: A. Papazian
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