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JUST TWO SOLITUDES MET
[ Part 2.2: "Attached Text" ]
[eng137654936918.JPG] So why did Putin visit Baku? It is obvious that
it was a stand-by visit because whatever was signed and whatever was
declared during the visit could have been done without this visit. It
is clear that Russia will continue to sell arms to Azerbaijan, it is
beyond doubt, while all the rest is done through technical talks and
arrangements. Currently Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev resemble each
other. Both are having a lot of trouble in their countries, including
in oil and gas, as well as on the international arena where both are
"not understood". Ilham Aliyev needs to strengthen his "personal"
foothold in the world, and this issue is not resolved in Russia but
probably with the help of Russia. In the present situation Moscow
hardly possesses any levers or means of operational influence to be
able to affect the situation relating to elections in Azerbaijan.
Such levers disappeared a long time ago, and they understand this
very well in Moscow, Baku and the West. At the same time, Ilham
Aliyev needs to strengthen his foothold in his relations with the
West which cannot make more or less tolerable evaluations of the
ruling regime in Azerbaijan despite the perspectives of gas supply
to Southern Europe. In universally accepted evaluations Azerbaijan
is listed under the model of the states of Central Asia which
cannot favor its leaders. However, the issue is not the regional
and political affiliation of Azerbaijan. For llham Aliyev the key
problem is his own political status and image. He needs his upcoming
election to be legitimate and evaluated by the Western community as
acceptable. Ilham Aliyev's image has never been as suspicious as now
and has never undergone such definite evaluations before. Even the
lavishly funded authors of the United States and Europe cannot publish
anything decent about Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijan and are limited to
"one million refugees and 20% of occupied territories".
Staffs of leading companies in the UK and the US dealing with the
image of states, governments, politicians, told the authors that it is
impossible to publish in the respectable (or even not so respectable)
Western press something supporting the image of Azerbaijan and Ilham
Aliyev. The best publication is "economic success of Azerbaijan
impresses", though one has to be reserved in assessments of social
development. Such environment in Azerbaijan is a lever of pressure
and control on it but most probably it is a real attitude because
the EU bodies state openly that they have no idea about how to build
further relations with Azerbaijan. It is related not only to the
internal situation in Azerbaijan but also its foreign policy which
threatens regional security and irritates the West and not only the
best but also the conventional "rivals" of the West.
In this situation Ilham Aliyev relies on the old and perhaps the
last stake - tease the West with perspectives of rapprochement with
Russia. In this case, the stake is high, and it is not worthwhile
discussing Karabakh or defense supplies, a visit is not little
but is not enough either. In other words, Ilham Aliyev chooses a
vulgar "real politics" and it was not easy for V. Putin to accept
this unexpected turn but it was accepted eventually. Why? Russia's
twofaced, mercantile, meaningless policy has led to loss of influence
on the South Caucasus. Relations with Georgia and Armenia bode ill.
In addition, it becomes known that no one in the Russian political
leadership assumes responsibility for the current situation in the
South Caucasus and responsibility lies entirely on Putin whom they
tried to shield without success. According to Russian experts not
working for general audience, all the three (main) Russian special
services have a negative attitude to Russia's current policy on the
South Caucasus. At the same time, they are not active in expressing
their opinion and position. The military circles in Russia are not
able to understand what is happening with the Russian policy in
the region (and not only in the region). Besides, certain political
circles in Moscow would like to re-transmit their "non-understanding"
through Armenian authors. It is all becoming increasingly obvious. The
scandalous circumstances indicate the recognition that the Russian
policy is based on conjuncture and leads nowhere and of its expected
failure. According to a leading Russian expert on international
politics, "however Russia's policy on the South Caucasus is defined, if
one has to use the services of a Muslim state to convince a Christian
state, we are in trouble". This time Vladimir Putin has been offered a
"golden key" from all troubles in the South Caucasus - rapprochement
with Azerbaijan and demonstration to other partners in the region
and the West the position gained in the region. However, Azerbaijan,
at least the ruling regime, understands very well that it exists not
because it is supported by Russia or Turkey but thanks to the American
"umbrella". One non-systemic step by Ilham Aliyev is enough for the
longevity of his regime. However, Ilham Aliyev will never take that
step as it is equal to death, it will only signal to the West that it
could make several "moves" towards the degree of freedom it is allowed
to have. Moscow understands the perspectives and has idea about the
"degree of freedom" in the situation of Azerbaijan but accepted the
invitation. Nevertheless, Russia will carry on its policy, expressing
its strengths and weaknesses, at least through the expression on the
face of its leaders. The visit did not result in principal changes,
"just two solitudes met". But the fire is not burning yet, and if it
blazes up, nobody knows who will burn more...
Igor Muradyan 10:49 15/08/2013 [footer_logo.png] Story from Lragir.am
News: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/30700
[ Part 2.2: "Attached Text" ]
[eng137654936918.JPG] So why did Putin visit Baku? It is obvious that
it was a stand-by visit because whatever was signed and whatever was
declared during the visit could have been done without this visit. It
is clear that Russia will continue to sell arms to Azerbaijan, it is
beyond doubt, while all the rest is done through technical talks and
arrangements. Currently Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev resemble each
other. Both are having a lot of trouble in their countries, including
in oil and gas, as well as on the international arena where both are
"not understood". Ilham Aliyev needs to strengthen his "personal"
foothold in the world, and this issue is not resolved in Russia but
probably with the help of Russia. In the present situation Moscow
hardly possesses any levers or means of operational influence to be
able to affect the situation relating to elections in Azerbaijan.
Such levers disappeared a long time ago, and they understand this
very well in Moscow, Baku and the West. At the same time, Ilham
Aliyev needs to strengthen his foothold in his relations with the
West which cannot make more or less tolerable evaluations of the
ruling regime in Azerbaijan despite the perspectives of gas supply
to Southern Europe. In universally accepted evaluations Azerbaijan
is listed under the model of the states of Central Asia which
cannot favor its leaders. However, the issue is not the regional
and political affiliation of Azerbaijan. For llham Aliyev the key
problem is his own political status and image. He needs his upcoming
election to be legitimate and evaluated by the Western community as
acceptable. Ilham Aliyev's image has never been as suspicious as now
and has never undergone such definite evaluations before. Even the
lavishly funded authors of the United States and Europe cannot publish
anything decent about Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijan and are limited to
"one million refugees and 20% of occupied territories".
Staffs of leading companies in the UK and the US dealing with the
image of states, governments, politicians, told the authors that it is
impossible to publish in the respectable (or even not so respectable)
Western press something supporting the image of Azerbaijan and Ilham
Aliyev. The best publication is "economic success of Azerbaijan
impresses", though one has to be reserved in assessments of social
development. Such environment in Azerbaijan is a lever of pressure
and control on it but most probably it is a real attitude because
the EU bodies state openly that they have no idea about how to build
further relations with Azerbaijan. It is related not only to the
internal situation in Azerbaijan but also its foreign policy which
threatens regional security and irritates the West and not only the
best but also the conventional "rivals" of the West.
In this situation Ilham Aliyev relies on the old and perhaps the
last stake - tease the West with perspectives of rapprochement with
Russia. In this case, the stake is high, and it is not worthwhile
discussing Karabakh or defense supplies, a visit is not little
but is not enough either. In other words, Ilham Aliyev chooses a
vulgar "real politics" and it was not easy for V. Putin to accept
this unexpected turn but it was accepted eventually. Why? Russia's
twofaced, mercantile, meaningless policy has led to loss of influence
on the South Caucasus. Relations with Georgia and Armenia bode ill.
In addition, it becomes known that no one in the Russian political
leadership assumes responsibility for the current situation in the
South Caucasus and responsibility lies entirely on Putin whom they
tried to shield without success. According to Russian experts not
working for general audience, all the three (main) Russian special
services have a negative attitude to Russia's current policy on the
South Caucasus. At the same time, they are not active in expressing
their opinion and position. The military circles in Russia are not
able to understand what is happening with the Russian policy in
the region (and not only in the region). Besides, certain political
circles in Moscow would like to re-transmit their "non-understanding"
through Armenian authors. It is all becoming increasingly obvious. The
scandalous circumstances indicate the recognition that the Russian
policy is based on conjuncture and leads nowhere and of its expected
failure. According to a leading Russian expert on international
politics, "however Russia's policy on the South Caucasus is defined, if
one has to use the services of a Muslim state to convince a Christian
state, we are in trouble". This time Vladimir Putin has been offered a
"golden key" from all troubles in the South Caucasus - rapprochement
with Azerbaijan and demonstration to other partners in the region
and the West the position gained in the region. However, Azerbaijan,
at least the ruling regime, understands very well that it exists not
because it is supported by Russia or Turkey but thanks to the American
"umbrella". One non-systemic step by Ilham Aliyev is enough for the
longevity of his regime. However, Ilham Aliyev will never take that
step as it is equal to death, it will only signal to the West that it
could make several "moves" towards the degree of freedom it is allowed
to have. Moscow understands the perspectives and has idea about the
"degree of freedom" in the situation of Azerbaijan but accepted the
invitation. Nevertheless, Russia will carry on its policy, expressing
its strengths and weaknesses, at least through the expression on the
face of its leaders. The visit did not result in principal changes,
"just two solitudes met". But the fire is not burning yet, and if it
blazes up, nobody knows who will burn more...
Igor Muradyan 10:49 15/08/2013 [footer_logo.png] Story from Lragir.am
News: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/30700