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MOSCOW COMES TO FAIR PLAY
Azerbaijan met Russia's President Putin with obvious brazenness.
First, not Ilham Aliyev but his deputy prime minister met Vladimir
Putin at the airport. Usually, seldom do heads of state meet their
counterparts in airport but usually the presidents of the so-called
small states meet the presidents of big states personally, extending
a specifically high level of respect and honor to them.
In fact, Aliyev did not feel the need and sent his deputy prime
minister to meet Putin. It is not too bad but not for Putin, the
president of one of the G8 states.
Afterwards, during the official ceremony, Azerbaijan went beyond the
limits and while announcing the name of Sergey Lavrov, the Russian
foreign minister, uttered an Azerbaijani insulting word instead of
Sergey, and uttered his name only at the second attempt.
Most probably, Russia needs something from Baku otherwise Aliyev
would hardly treat the Russian president that way. So, he is sure
that Russia will tolerate anything, even such treatment in return
for Baku's agreement.
Apparently, this is the price that Moscow pays for the involvement
of Rosneft in the energy market of Azerbaijan.
For Russia it is a very important issue, a super important one
because it is the last argument for being competitive in the fight
for influence on the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan disagreed with the
war scenario, understanding that not he and Moscow will win but Moscow
will defeat Baku and Yerevan. And in that case they would use Aliyev
and his family to resolve the strategic issue of population of Siberia
rather than sign an agreement with Aliyev for swearing.
Aliyev would not get Karabakh in the result of war. He understood
that right away. In this way he will not get Karabakh either, instead
he keeps the possibility to swear at the big foreign minister and
behave arrogantly.
It is not ruled out that the West's warnings affected Azerbaijan. A
few months ago, during the events in the Turkish Gezi park, the U.S.
Secretary John Kerry reminded Mammedyarov visiting Washington
that Azerbaijan is a multiethnic state, a success story of friendly
coexistence of different ethnicities. It was conveyed to Baky through
the Turkish practice that as soon as Azerbaijan tries to trigger a
force majeure in the region, it will become a bad example of friendship
of peoples.
If Azerbaijan gives up on the idea of a big provocation, ensuring
at least its economic presence in Azerbaijan is highly important to
Russia. And it requires participation in the energy market. Without
this Russia's retreat from the region will be accelerated and
impossible to turn back. It is hard to tell whether the presence of
Rosneft in Baku will help prevent retreat but it is visible that Russia
intends to try out a so-called network tactics in the region. A few
months ago Rosneft signed an agreement with Armenia to acquire the
right to be present in the Armenian energy market.
There is little probability that Rosneft will plan to connect the
markets of Armenia and Azerbaijan although that should not be ruled
out. However, the problem is other than this.
The link of energy markets of Armenia and Azerbaijan gets the least
focus from the point of view of the strategy of regional development.
There are infrastructures in the region, some projects are underway.
They bypass Armenia, and hardly new projects will be introduced to
involve Armenia as well.
It may sound strange but regional oil and gas pipelines are a small
caliber for the human scientific and technical resource of Armenia.
Moreover, their economic effect is obviously overestimated, evidence
to which is Georgia. Extra millions would not trouble anyone of
course but Armenia needs innovative industries to be economically
competitive. This aspect of Armenia is the focus of the international
scenarios of regional development.
Hence, Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot be viewed in the same regional
strategic economic panorama. These two countries have absolutely
different importance and value. It is visible to Russia as well. So,
the presence of Rosneft in Armenia and Azerbaijan has two different
tactical motives, and the thing in common is Russia's efforts to
boost the subjects of the new tactics of its economic diplomacy.
It is commendable but it indicates that Russia refrains from using
force majeure triggers in the regional race. In other words, Moscow
is gradually approaching the principle of fair play, which is the
only way of avoiding long-term or even lifelong disqualification.
Hakob Badalyan 16:10 14/08/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30697
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Azerbaijan met Russia's President Putin with obvious brazenness.
First, not Ilham Aliyev but his deputy prime minister met Vladimir
Putin at the airport. Usually, seldom do heads of state meet their
counterparts in airport but usually the presidents of the so-called
small states meet the presidents of big states personally, extending
a specifically high level of respect and honor to them.
In fact, Aliyev did not feel the need and sent his deputy prime
minister to meet Putin. It is not too bad but not for Putin, the
president of one of the G8 states.
Afterwards, during the official ceremony, Azerbaijan went beyond the
limits and while announcing the name of Sergey Lavrov, the Russian
foreign minister, uttered an Azerbaijani insulting word instead of
Sergey, and uttered his name only at the second attempt.
Most probably, Russia needs something from Baku otherwise Aliyev
would hardly treat the Russian president that way. So, he is sure
that Russia will tolerate anything, even such treatment in return
for Baku's agreement.
Apparently, this is the price that Moscow pays for the involvement
of Rosneft in the energy market of Azerbaijan.
For Russia it is a very important issue, a super important one
because it is the last argument for being competitive in the fight
for influence on the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan disagreed with the
war scenario, understanding that not he and Moscow will win but Moscow
will defeat Baku and Yerevan. And in that case they would use Aliyev
and his family to resolve the strategic issue of population of Siberia
rather than sign an agreement with Aliyev for swearing.
Aliyev would not get Karabakh in the result of war. He understood
that right away. In this way he will not get Karabakh either, instead
he keeps the possibility to swear at the big foreign minister and
behave arrogantly.
It is not ruled out that the West's warnings affected Azerbaijan. A
few months ago, during the events in the Turkish Gezi park, the U.S.
Secretary John Kerry reminded Mammedyarov visiting Washington
that Azerbaijan is a multiethnic state, a success story of friendly
coexistence of different ethnicities. It was conveyed to Baky through
the Turkish practice that as soon as Azerbaijan tries to trigger a
force majeure in the region, it will become a bad example of friendship
of peoples.
If Azerbaijan gives up on the idea of a big provocation, ensuring
at least its economic presence in Azerbaijan is highly important to
Russia. And it requires participation in the energy market. Without
this Russia's retreat from the region will be accelerated and
impossible to turn back. It is hard to tell whether the presence of
Rosneft in Baku will help prevent retreat but it is visible that Russia
intends to try out a so-called network tactics in the region. A few
months ago Rosneft signed an agreement with Armenia to acquire the
right to be present in the Armenian energy market.
There is little probability that Rosneft will plan to connect the
markets of Armenia and Azerbaijan although that should not be ruled
out. However, the problem is other than this.
The link of energy markets of Armenia and Azerbaijan gets the least
focus from the point of view of the strategy of regional development.
There are infrastructures in the region, some projects are underway.
They bypass Armenia, and hardly new projects will be introduced to
involve Armenia as well.
It may sound strange but regional oil and gas pipelines are a small
caliber for the human scientific and technical resource of Armenia.
Moreover, their economic effect is obviously overestimated, evidence
to which is Georgia. Extra millions would not trouble anyone of
course but Armenia needs innovative industries to be economically
competitive. This aspect of Armenia is the focus of the international
scenarios of regional development.
Hence, Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot be viewed in the same regional
strategic economic panorama. These two countries have absolutely
different importance and value. It is visible to Russia as well. So,
the presence of Rosneft in Armenia and Azerbaijan has two different
tactical motives, and the thing in common is Russia's efforts to
boost the subjects of the new tactics of its economic diplomacy.
It is commendable but it indicates that Russia refrains from using
force majeure triggers in the regional race. In other words, Moscow
is gradually approaching the principle of fair play, which is the
only way of avoiding long-term or even lifelong disqualification.
Hakob Badalyan 16:10 14/08/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30697
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress