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IRAN'S UNDECLARED FOREIGN POLITICAL PRIORITIES
Iran has been in a complicated, if not to say unique international
situation for 30 years. It is amazing how such uncoordinated elite was
able to lead the country through all the hardships of the blockade
and acute confrontation with almost the entire world. If we think
more deeply, the Iranian elites were able to do the impossible,
and the special political literature often comes up with all kinds
of deliberations on factors of Iran's such viability.
At different stages of political relations Iran's partners were China,
Russia and even the UK. As to the so-called global partner, the United
States has always been one which was never interested in breaking
Iran's resistance, enclosing the economic and technological blockade.
The interests of the United States and Iran mostly overlapped on most
geopolitical matters, including the interest in fighting Al-Qaida.
Controversies occurred in the Americo-Iranian relations in
mini-geopolitics, on local arenas, and were initiated under specific
tasks of strengthening regional influence. This global matching of
interests will be a deciding factor of "undeclared priorities" of
Iran's foreign policy.
The "new" or rather the modernized team ruling in Tehran will
revise significantly the foreign policy although the main regional
priorities will be maintained. Iran's most important task will be
strengthening of its influence on "close" countries where Iranian
and Shiite elements prevail.
In Tehran they understand that limited American presence in Afghanistan
will entail big trouble for Iran unless Iran's influence is rapidly
and steadily established all over the territory of Afghanistan. The
relations between Iranians and the Pashtun people have not been simple
but in this stage Iran could be an important factor for territorial
integrity of the Afghan state.
Iran is facing the task of absorption of Tajikistan, bringing it to
its orbit. Iranians are trying hard to elaborate the Iranian version
of origin of the Turkmens and establish more credible relations with
Turkmenistan. Analogically, Iranian groups of Uzbekistan will be
attracted to its orbit.
The Iranian idea is to make the eastern coast of the Caspian more
suitable for their politics. For Iran, there cannot be two opinions
on the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan must be fragmented and rendered
harmless.
Mesopotamia is even more important to Iran than Afghanistan. The
alliance of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon will be a priority of the
Iranian policy for decades. But all this was in place before.
Apparently, the Iranians understand that the chief partner in forming
these zones of interest could be the United States and China. These
two world centers will become Iran's partners in the comprehensible
and conflict-free security policy.
In fact, currently a world outcast whose problems are speculated
by anyone, Tehran hopes to become an arena of tug-of-war between
influential and not so influential participants of international
relations. Strangely, with such visions Iran's nuclear program will
be a trump card in the relations with the United States.
Apart from this, Iran is facing tactical issues, first of all in
setting up relations with leading European and Arab states, as well as
Russia, especially that it is going to block Turkey and Israel because
the Iranians do not view these states as reliable partners. Iran will
try to set up more or less smooth and friendly relations.
Of course, the regional actors will not be waiting while Iran will be
setting up a comfortable situation. Iran's position will certainly
activate initiatives of Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia which are
practically ready for agreed actions against the interests and security
of Iran.
The United States understands that it is not advisable to get to this
new stage of establishing relations with Iran when the Iranians are
practically the winner in Syria. Besides, Israel and Israel's friends
in the United States are making efforts to involve the United States
in a military conflict in the region, first of all with Iran. A lot
of political groups in the American opposition approve these efforts
whose goals at the moment are not foreign political.
The United States is undertaking campaign scenarios on pressure on
Syria with a view to achieving significant concessions, including by
Iran. In this regard, a "plan" of reaction to "use of chemical weapon"
is launched. It should also be noted that the United States will not
only have to meet the interests of Israel but also the Sunnite Arab
states. One way or another, at this stage the task of the United
States will be normalization of relations with Iran and not to miss
this chance because a second such chance may not occur soon.
Iranian political scientists working in the Western countries
wonder if Iran's policy will not be the dark side of the policy of
self-isolation though within the borders of an Iranian and Shiite
civilization. However, in the modern world literally all the big and
small states are trying to join unions of states to tackle their
problems of security and economy. Perhaps, therefore all kinds of
deliberations on "isolation" are fulfillment of certain conditions
of communication within political science.
Over many years the United States has opposed regional alliances,
which led to bad control in the regions. Currently, bloc-wise thinking,
especially adjusted to the Near East and Middle East, is an important
priority of global security unless they are against the American
interests.
The Iranian establishment draws a conclusion that in the current
international relations it is possible to come to terms with the
United States over all the issues.
Igor Muradyan 15:42 27/08/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30740
Iran has been in a complicated, if not to say unique international
situation for 30 years. It is amazing how such uncoordinated elite was
able to lead the country through all the hardships of the blockade
and acute confrontation with almost the entire world. If we think
more deeply, the Iranian elites were able to do the impossible,
and the special political literature often comes up with all kinds
of deliberations on factors of Iran's such viability.
At different stages of political relations Iran's partners were China,
Russia and even the UK. As to the so-called global partner, the United
States has always been one which was never interested in breaking
Iran's resistance, enclosing the economic and technological blockade.
The interests of the United States and Iran mostly overlapped on most
geopolitical matters, including the interest in fighting Al-Qaida.
Controversies occurred in the Americo-Iranian relations in
mini-geopolitics, on local arenas, and were initiated under specific
tasks of strengthening regional influence. This global matching of
interests will be a deciding factor of "undeclared priorities" of
Iran's foreign policy.
The "new" or rather the modernized team ruling in Tehran will
revise significantly the foreign policy although the main regional
priorities will be maintained. Iran's most important task will be
strengthening of its influence on "close" countries where Iranian
and Shiite elements prevail.
In Tehran they understand that limited American presence in Afghanistan
will entail big trouble for Iran unless Iran's influence is rapidly
and steadily established all over the territory of Afghanistan. The
relations between Iranians and the Pashtun people have not been simple
but in this stage Iran could be an important factor for territorial
integrity of the Afghan state.
Iran is facing the task of absorption of Tajikistan, bringing it to
its orbit. Iranians are trying hard to elaborate the Iranian version
of origin of the Turkmens and establish more credible relations with
Turkmenistan. Analogically, Iranian groups of Uzbekistan will be
attracted to its orbit.
The Iranian idea is to make the eastern coast of the Caspian more
suitable for their politics. For Iran, there cannot be two opinions
on the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan must be fragmented and rendered
harmless.
Mesopotamia is even more important to Iran than Afghanistan. The
alliance of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon will be a priority of the
Iranian policy for decades. But all this was in place before.
Apparently, the Iranians understand that the chief partner in forming
these zones of interest could be the United States and China. These
two world centers will become Iran's partners in the comprehensible
and conflict-free security policy.
In fact, currently a world outcast whose problems are speculated
by anyone, Tehran hopes to become an arena of tug-of-war between
influential and not so influential participants of international
relations. Strangely, with such visions Iran's nuclear program will
be a trump card in the relations with the United States.
Apart from this, Iran is facing tactical issues, first of all in
setting up relations with leading European and Arab states, as well as
Russia, especially that it is going to block Turkey and Israel because
the Iranians do not view these states as reliable partners. Iran will
try to set up more or less smooth and friendly relations.
Of course, the regional actors will not be waiting while Iran will be
setting up a comfortable situation. Iran's position will certainly
activate initiatives of Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia which are
practically ready for agreed actions against the interests and security
of Iran.
The United States understands that it is not advisable to get to this
new stage of establishing relations with Iran when the Iranians are
practically the winner in Syria. Besides, Israel and Israel's friends
in the United States are making efforts to involve the United States
in a military conflict in the region, first of all with Iran. A lot
of political groups in the American opposition approve these efforts
whose goals at the moment are not foreign political.
The United States is undertaking campaign scenarios on pressure on
Syria with a view to achieving significant concessions, including by
Iran. In this regard, a "plan" of reaction to "use of chemical weapon"
is launched. It should also be noted that the United States will not
only have to meet the interests of Israel but also the Sunnite Arab
states. One way or another, at this stage the task of the United
States will be normalization of relations with Iran and not to miss
this chance because a second such chance may not occur soon.
Iranian political scientists working in the Western countries
wonder if Iran's policy will not be the dark side of the policy of
self-isolation though within the borders of an Iranian and Shiite
civilization. However, in the modern world literally all the big and
small states are trying to join unions of states to tackle their
problems of security and economy. Perhaps, therefore all kinds of
deliberations on "isolation" are fulfillment of certain conditions
of communication within political science.
Over many years the United States has opposed regional alliances,
which led to bad control in the regions. Currently, bloc-wise thinking,
especially adjusted to the Near East and Middle East, is an important
priority of global security unless they are against the American
interests.
The Iranian establishment draws a conclusion that in the current
international relations it is possible to come to terms with the
United States over all the issues.
Igor Muradyan 15:42 27/08/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30740