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ARMENIA'S SECURITY DILEMMA BRINGS IT TO EURASIAN UNION
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Dec 2 2013
by Alin Ozinian*
2 December 2013 /
Developments in the aftermath of bilateral talks between Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan and Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Sept. 3 are
being commented on by the media and Caucasia experts in Turkey.
During the meeting, Armenia expressed interest in joining the Customs
Union created by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and in the Eurasian
Economic Union that will be created in the future. The main argument
that experts raise, relying on a traditional point of view, is that
Armenia had remained stuck between the European Union and Eurasian
Union but in the end, it surrendered to Russia. However, a review
of the current outlook and developments show that such superficial
discourses and arguments are not coherent or adequate to explain what
is really happening.
In the election campaign on February 2013, Sargsyan defined
Armenian-Russian relations as strategic whereas when it came to
relations with the US and Europe, he referred to a good neighborhood.
Sargsyan clearly stated that the support of Russia should be preserved
so that they would be able to keep Nagorno-Karabakh. Right after
the elections, international experts and the media expected that
cooperation with Russia would be deepened and that in the new era, and
that Armenia would be in closer cooperation with Russia particularly
in the field of security.
Armenia had to develop strong ties with its big brother Russia as
a result of its one-dimensional policy where it failed to diversify
its options in the fields of security, military, economy and politics
since its independence. This option still offered a good perspective
for Armenia considering the economic embargo imposed by Turkey, which
had closed their borders, and its deteriorating relations with its
other neighbors with the exception of Iran.
Maybe an option for Armenia between the EU and the Eurasian Union never
existed. The opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, which has been a
heated discussion over the last two decades, was not achieved despite
the reestablishment of diplomatic relations without prior conditions,
the freezing of progress made through "soccer diplomacy" because of
the interests of Turkish foreign policy and Turkey's insistence on
not making any concessions on its position despite the fact that it is
member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's
(OSCE) Minsk Group seeking to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the
recommendations by the US and the EU's efforts under Swiss mediation;
as a result of this failure, Armenia has been "involuntarily" and
desperately marching towards its one and only option for the last
two decades.
First place in Armenia's foreign trade
Russia still holds first place in Armenia's foreign trade, some
national strategic facilities have been transferred to Russia which --
perhaps intentionally -- does not operate them, Russia has a military
base in Armenia, there are nearly 2 million Armenians living in
Russia, most of whom have become Russian citizens, Armenia is almost
fully dependent on Russia in economic terms (gas, electricity and
enriched uranium for its Metsamor nuclear power plant); given all
these factors, it is only natural that Armenia wants to deepen its
relations with Russia.
On the other hand, the reservations of Yerevan, which has been
disturbed by the recent attitude and discourse of Russia on the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the surprise visit to Baku by Putin who
expressed support for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the coming
elections, its arms sales to Azerbaijan in large amounts, the Russian
announcement that the price of gas sold to Armenia would increase
sharply; in short, the indirect threats and warnings by Russia to
Armenia were the main reasons and factors for the Armenian government
making a swift decision to seek admission in the Customs Union.
Sargsyan's statements that they are ready to take the necessary
steps were also confirmed by Putin's remarks that they would extend
assistance to ensure that the process of Armenia's admission would
be accelerated. In addition, on the occasion of Sargsyan's visit, the
state-run Russian Railways decided to make a $400-million investment
in the Armenian railway infrastructure.
This "carrot diplomacy" was further backed by promises made by Russia's
former ambassador to Yerevan, who delivered a speech in a meeting on
Nov. 8 called "Armenia and Customs Union: The social measurement of
Eurasian integration." Vyacheslav Kovalenko, who pointed out that
Armenia and Russia are two Christian countries, also argued that
should Nagorno-Karabakh's independence be recognized, the Republic
of Nagorno-Karabakh may also be admitted in the Customs Union as
full member.
EU acting cautiously
At the same meeting, the EU commissioner for enlargement said the EU
is acting cautiously so as not to publicly raise the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue as a condition, adding that efforts to achieve a deal with
Azerbaijan should also be increased. Eurasia expert Thomas de Waal
noted that the Armenian authorities' decision is all about security
and that they would not dare lose their only military ally. Yerevan's
alignment with the Eurasian Union was a development which all parties
would have expected.
Even though the Armenian people favor European culture and values,
the vast majority have full confidence in the security service Russia
provides. But when they recall Turkey's regional and military power
and its support for Azerbaijan, they feel disappointed. To this
end, in addition to some of the minor protests in Yerevan and the
overall state of disappointment, the majority seem to be supportive of
Sargsyan. The reactions by the opposition -- "We do not want Russia"
-- will no longer be heard if they come to power because it is all
about Armenia's security conundrum rather than being a supporter or
an opponent of the West or Russia.
Armenia's relations with the EU, as noted by the EU authorities, will
be preserved in the fields of reforms, democracy, human rights and
cooperation with civil society. The progress made over time following
the talks on the issue of facilitated Schengen visa procedures for
selected delegations is raising hopes.
While Turkey is physically Armenia's closest and oldest neighbor, this
role has been replaced by Putin, who said, "Armenia's first trading
partner is Russia and this trend will continue." If Georgia is taken
out of the equation between Armenia and Turkey, in other words, when
the Turkish-Armenian border is reopened and bilateral trade resumes, in
fact it becomes clear who the unrivaled trading partner of Armenia is.
After his visit to Switzerland, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu said, "We are paying attention to normalization of relations
between Turkey and Armenia." This was really important. As 2015
approaches, everybody knows that the ball is in Turkey's court. It
is expected that the government would take steps in the issue of
the Armenian issue, similar to those taken in respect to the Kurdish
and the minority issues. If Turkey admits that the protocols between
Turkey and Armenia, signed four years ago, were frozen by itself for
some lame excuses and restarts an impartial policy in the region,
this will not only resolve the issues between the two countries but
will also liberate Armenia, which has been pursuing an inward policy
due to security concerns.
________________________________
*Alin Ozinian is an independent analyst.
From: Baghdasarian
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Dec 2 2013
by Alin Ozinian*
2 December 2013 /
Developments in the aftermath of bilateral talks between Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan and Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Sept. 3 are
being commented on by the media and Caucasia experts in Turkey.
During the meeting, Armenia expressed interest in joining the Customs
Union created by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and in the Eurasian
Economic Union that will be created in the future. The main argument
that experts raise, relying on a traditional point of view, is that
Armenia had remained stuck between the European Union and Eurasian
Union but in the end, it surrendered to Russia. However, a review
of the current outlook and developments show that such superficial
discourses and arguments are not coherent or adequate to explain what
is really happening.
In the election campaign on February 2013, Sargsyan defined
Armenian-Russian relations as strategic whereas when it came to
relations with the US and Europe, he referred to a good neighborhood.
Sargsyan clearly stated that the support of Russia should be preserved
so that they would be able to keep Nagorno-Karabakh. Right after
the elections, international experts and the media expected that
cooperation with Russia would be deepened and that in the new era, and
that Armenia would be in closer cooperation with Russia particularly
in the field of security.
Armenia had to develop strong ties with its big brother Russia as
a result of its one-dimensional policy where it failed to diversify
its options in the fields of security, military, economy and politics
since its independence. This option still offered a good perspective
for Armenia considering the economic embargo imposed by Turkey, which
had closed their borders, and its deteriorating relations with its
other neighbors with the exception of Iran.
Maybe an option for Armenia between the EU and the Eurasian Union never
existed. The opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, which has been a
heated discussion over the last two decades, was not achieved despite
the reestablishment of diplomatic relations without prior conditions,
the freezing of progress made through "soccer diplomacy" because of
the interests of Turkish foreign policy and Turkey's insistence on
not making any concessions on its position despite the fact that it is
member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe's
(OSCE) Minsk Group seeking to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the
recommendations by the US and the EU's efforts under Swiss mediation;
as a result of this failure, Armenia has been "involuntarily" and
desperately marching towards its one and only option for the last
two decades.
First place in Armenia's foreign trade
Russia still holds first place in Armenia's foreign trade, some
national strategic facilities have been transferred to Russia which --
perhaps intentionally -- does not operate them, Russia has a military
base in Armenia, there are nearly 2 million Armenians living in
Russia, most of whom have become Russian citizens, Armenia is almost
fully dependent on Russia in economic terms (gas, electricity and
enriched uranium for its Metsamor nuclear power plant); given all
these factors, it is only natural that Armenia wants to deepen its
relations with Russia.
On the other hand, the reservations of Yerevan, which has been
disturbed by the recent attitude and discourse of Russia on the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the surprise visit to Baku by Putin who
expressed support for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the coming
elections, its arms sales to Azerbaijan in large amounts, the Russian
announcement that the price of gas sold to Armenia would increase
sharply; in short, the indirect threats and warnings by Russia to
Armenia were the main reasons and factors for the Armenian government
making a swift decision to seek admission in the Customs Union.
Sargsyan's statements that they are ready to take the necessary
steps were also confirmed by Putin's remarks that they would extend
assistance to ensure that the process of Armenia's admission would
be accelerated. In addition, on the occasion of Sargsyan's visit, the
state-run Russian Railways decided to make a $400-million investment
in the Armenian railway infrastructure.
This "carrot diplomacy" was further backed by promises made by Russia's
former ambassador to Yerevan, who delivered a speech in a meeting on
Nov. 8 called "Armenia and Customs Union: The social measurement of
Eurasian integration." Vyacheslav Kovalenko, who pointed out that
Armenia and Russia are two Christian countries, also argued that
should Nagorno-Karabakh's independence be recognized, the Republic
of Nagorno-Karabakh may also be admitted in the Customs Union as
full member.
EU acting cautiously
At the same meeting, the EU commissioner for enlargement said the EU
is acting cautiously so as not to publicly raise the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue as a condition, adding that efforts to achieve a deal with
Azerbaijan should also be increased. Eurasia expert Thomas de Waal
noted that the Armenian authorities' decision is all about security
and that they would not dare lose their only military ally. Yerevan's
alignment with the Eurasian Union was a development which all parties
would have expected.
Even though the Armenian people favor European culture and values,
the vast majority have full confidence in the security service Russia
provides. But when they recall Turkey's regional and military power
and its support for Azerbaijan, they feel disappointed. To this
end, in addition to some of the minor protests in Yerevan and the
overall state of disappointment, the majority seem to be supportive of
Sargsyan. The reactions by the opposition -- "We do not want Russia"
-- will no longer be heard if they come to power because it is all
about Armenia's security conundrum rather than being a supporter or
an opponent of the West or Russia.
Armenia's relations with the EU, as noted by the EU authorities, will
be preserved in the fields of reforms, democracy, human rights and
cooperation with civil society. The progress made over time following
the talks on the issue of facilitated Schengen visa procedures for
selected delegations is raising hopes.
While Turkey is physically Armenia's closest and oldest neighbor, this
role has been replaced by Putin, who said, "Armenia's first trading
partner is Russia and this trend will continue." If Georgia is taken
out of the equation between Armenia and Turkey, in other words, when
the Turkish-Armenian border is reopened and bilateral trade resumes, in
fact it becomes clear who the unrivaled trading partner of Armenia is.
After his visit to Switzerland, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu said, "We are paying attention to normalization of relations
between Turkey and Armenia." This was really important. As 2015
approaches, everybody knows that the ball is in Turkey's court. It
is expected that the government would take steps in the issue of
the Armenian issue, similar to those taken in respect to the Kurdish
and the minority issues. If Turkey admits that the protocols between
Turkey and Armenia, signed four years ago, were frozen by itself for
some lame excuses and restarts an impartial policy in the region,
this will not only resolve the issues between the two countries but
will also liberate Armenia, which has been pursuing an inward policy
due to security concerns.
________________________________
*Alin Ozinian is an independent analyst.
From: Baghdasarian