Tweet
RESET OF TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY OR RESET OF REGION?
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Dec 3 2013
VERDA OZER
"Turkey has reset its foreign policy." That's the most popular thing
to say these days. The following has happened only in the last 3
weeks: Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu first visited Shiite leaders
during his visit to Iraq and then Tehran, Ankara engaged in a renewed
dialogue with Baghdad, Prime Minister Erdogan and Russian President
Putin gave mutual warm messages during Erdogan's visit to Moscow and
Davutoglu emphasized commonality of Turkish-US interests during his
visit to Washington.
In addition, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki will probably visit Ankara
in early January and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Prime
Minister Erdogan will pay reciprocal visits very soon. Turkey has
also taken concrete action, backing up its denial of supporting
al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria. Ankara expressed its support for
the Geneva II Conference to be held on Jan. 22, which Turkey had
previously signaled deep skepticism about. These all attest to the
argument that Turkey is shifting away from a foreign policy of the
last 2 years, which has given it a sectarian-based image. Moreover,
Erdogan said last week that he trusts Israel will fulfill Turkey's
preconditions to normalize relations soon and, according to recent
reports, Ankara has also prepared a road map to normalize relations
with Armenia. All of these developments are interpreted as signs of
Turkey shifting back to its "zero-problem policy".
Yet, this shift only reflects a major systemic change, a broader trend
in the region. There is a new Middle East underway. The agreement
between Iran and P5+1 last week is only one foot of this trend and
signals a gradual end to all of the proxy wars in Syria, most notably
the U.S.-Russian one. Maliki's upcoming visit to Tehran, following his
visit to Washington and coinciding with the Iran agreement and the
ongoing rapprochement between Iraqi Kurdistan and Baghdad, point at
a broader cooperation. On the other hand, Egypt, a trusted American
ally for over three decades, is warming up to Russia while U.S. and
Iran are making peace at the expense of the U.S.' two major regional
allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia. In other words, the regional balance
of power and alliances are in tectonic shift.
This all shows that governments have caved in to the facts on the
ground. The Syrian war proved once again that it is impossible
to end a conflict in this region without reconciling the regional
powers and superpowers that support different sides of the conflict,
pursuing a proxy war. This is the reason why the US has foundered
in Iraq and Afghanistan and why the Syrian conflict gets more and
more complicated every day. Radical Islamist groups, which the Syrian
crisis has attracted to the country, have now become the common enemy,
not just for the US and Russia, but also for regional powers.
Furthermore, the Arab uprisings, the Syrian war in particular, have
intensified sectarian tensions in the region. Coupled with the U.S.
withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, the new configuration demands
the cooperation of regional powers as well as the superpowers that
are in one way or another part of any regional problem. It is about
time to make them part of the solution instead.
In short, Turkey plays the new game by its own rules.
December/03/2013
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Dec 3 2013
VERDA OZER
"Turkey has reset its foreign policy." That's the most popular thing
to say these days. The following has happened only in the last 3
weeks: Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu first visited Shiite leaders
during his visit to Iraq and then Tehran, Ankara engaged in a renewed
dialogue with Baghdad, Prime Minister Erdogan and Russian President
Putin gave mutual warm messages during Erdogan's visit to Moscow and
Davutoglu emphasized commonality of Turkish-US interests during his
visit to Washington.
In addition, Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki will probably visit Ankara
in early January and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Prime
Minister Erdogan will pay reciprocal visits very soon. Turkey has
also taken concrete action, backing up its denial of supporting
al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria. Ankara expressed its support for
the Geneva II Conference to be held on Jan. 22, which Turkey had
previously signaled deep skepticism about. These all attest to the
argument that Turkey is shifting away from a foreign policy of the
last 2 years, which has given it a sectarian-based image. Moreover,
Erdogan said last week that he trusts Israel will fulfill Turkey's
preconditions to normalize relations soon and, according to recent
reports, Ankara has also prepared a road map to normalize relations
with Armenia. All of these developments are interpreted as signs of
Turkey shifting back to its "zero-problem policy".
Yet, this shift only reflects a major systemic change, a broader trend
in the region. There is a new Middle East underway. The agreement
between Iran and P5+1 last week is only one foot of this trend and
signals a gradual end to all of the proxy wars in Syria, most notably
the U.S.-Russian one. Maliki's upcoming visit to Tehran, following his
visit to Washington and coinciding with the Iran agreement and the
ongoing rapprochement between Iraqi Kurdistan and Baghdad, point at
a broader cooperation. On the other hand, Egypt, a trusted American
ally for over three decades, is warming up to Russia while U.S. and
Iran are making peace at the expense of the U.S.' two major regional
allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia. In other words, the regional balance
of power and alliances are in tectonic shift.
This all shows that governments have caved in to the facts on the
ground. The Syrian war proved once again that it is impossible
to end a conflict in this region without reconciling the regional
powers and superpowers that support different sides of the conflict,
pursuing a proxy war. This is the reason why the US has foundered
in Iraq and Afghanistan and why the Syrian conflict gets more and
more complicated every day. Radical Islamist groups, which the Syrian
crisis has attracted to the country, have now become the common enemy,
not just for the US and Russia, but also for regional powers.
Furthermore, the Arab uprisings, the Syrian war in particular, have
intensified sectarian tensions in the region. Coupled with the U.S.
withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, the new configuration demands
the cooperation of regional powers as well as the superpowers that
are in one way or another part of any regional problem. It is about
time to make them part of the solution instead.
In short, Turkey plays the new game by its own rules.
December/03/2013
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress