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PUTIN IN ARMENIA: THE VIEW FROM MOSCOW
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Dec 3 2013
3 December 2013 - 11:28am
Victoria Panfilova, an NG commentator, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Yesterday, Armenia welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin. The
visit had been planned a long time ago, almost from the day of Putin's
inauguration. However, he took a long time to arrive. The strategic
partners had one problem - Armenia decided to sign an association
agreement with the EU. This was supposed to happen at the Eastern
Partnership summit in Vilnius. Moscow had to wait and see what friendly
Yerevan did, and the visit could wait.
Armenia's behavior was easy to explain. It couldn't make Russia to
give a two-billion credit to Yerevan on economic development. Moscow's
promises to help were insulting in the context of generous grants to
unstable Kyrgyzstan which received Russian aid, but often acted not
in Russian interests. Moreover, ignoring of Armenia in the context of
the Customs Union was insulting as well, even though Yerevan stated
about its interest, it didn't receive an invitation.
At the same time, association with the EU was developed in detail by
Armenia. The agreement contained to military component; a political
component was minimal. In short, Armenia would have got simplification
of the visa regime and a free trade zone, would have been obliged
to conduct management reforms, according to European standards. On
the other hand, Russia would have got rid of a troublesome relative
who annoyed Russia with its demands for help. At the same time,
Russia would have maintained its military influence and would have
lost an insignificant part of its political influence. However, it
seemed Moscow didn't like the scenario. Probably Yerevan received some
guarantees secretly, because during Serge Sargsyan's visit to Moscow
association with the EU wasn't discussed and Armenian President stated
that Armenia would join the Customs Union. By the time, it was clear
that Belarus was indifferent to such extension of the alliance, while
Kazakhstan was against it. Different views on the issue were made up
at the 10th Russian-Kazakhstan Interregional Summit in Yekaterinburg
in November.
What guarantees Yerevan could receive, making choice in favor of the
Customs Union, we found out during Vladimir Putin's visit to Yerevan on
December 2nd. Armenia will get Russian gas for internal Russian prices,
as well as arms; cooperation will be intensified; and investments and
a series of economic projects are promised to the nuclear and security
spheres. Isn't it sufficient? It is sufficient, if it becomes true.
The Karabakh problem. Vladimir Putin said that blood shouldn't be
shed anymore and welcomed restoration of contacts between Azerbaijan
and Armenia at the top level. The statement seems to be adequate and
reasonable. Yerevan should be happy. Moreover, "Russia will make the
process of Armenia's accession to the CU most effective." A road map
may be signed on December 24th.
Vladimir Putin stated that Russia intends to improve positions in
the South Caucasus, and it would reasonable to think that it relies
on its strategic partner, first of all. It also seems to be alright
for Armenia.
However, in Yerevan strange developments took place on Monday, to put
it mildly. A group which calls itself 'Dignified Motherland' decided
to meet Russian President by an action which had to make it clear
that Russian President is not welcomed in Armenia. The group includes
the opposition Armenian party Heritage; it has pro-Western views and
believes that the choice in favor of the Customs Union was made by the
authorities because of Russia's pressure, i.e. it was interference in
Armenian internal affairs. The politicians and social activists held
their protest with mottos on prevention of the country's colonization.
Probably, the hundred or so people deserved no attention, but for
several circumstances. It is inadequate to shout about Moscow's
pressure on Yerevan: according to Gellapa public opinion polls,
about 70% Armenian population stands for the CU. Did the authorities
falsify the data, as the opposition stated? Why didn't the opposition
present other data? Are initiators of anti-Russian protests ready to
be responsible before the Armenian nation and history for consequences
which will follow a break-up between Armenia and Russia? It seems to me
they are not able to think in such a way, if they forgot hospitability
rules, especially considering the fact that Armenia has many times
invited the Russian president to come.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/48229.html
Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Dec 3 2013
3 December 2013 - 11:28am
Victoria Panfilova, an NG commentator, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Yesterday, Armenia welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin. The
visit had been planned a long time ago, almost from the day of Putin's
inauguration. However, he took a long time to arrive. The strategic
partners had one problem - Armenia decided to sign an association
agreement with the EU. This was supposed to happen at the Eastern
Partnership summit in Vilnius. Moscow had to wait and see what friendly
Yerevan did, and the visit could wait.
Armenia's behavior was easy to explain. It couldn't make Russia to
give a two-billion credit to Yerevan on economic development. Moscow's
promises to help were insulting in the context of generous grants to
unstable Kyrgyzstan which received Russian aid, but often acted not
in Russian interests. Moreover, ignoring of Armenia in the context of
the Customs Union was insulting as well, even though Yerevan stated
about its interest, it didn't receive an invitation.
At the same time, association with the EU was developed in detail by
Armenia. The agreement contained to military component; a political
component was minimal. In short, Armenia would have got simplification
of the visa regime and a free trade zone, would have been obliged
to conduct management reforms, according to European standards. On
the other hand, Russia would have got rid of a troublesome relative
who annoyed Russia with its demands for help. At the same time,
Russia would have maintained its military influence and would have
lost an insignificant part of its political influence. However, it
seemed Moscow didn't like the scenario. Probably Yerevan received some
guarantees secretly, because during Serge Sargsyan's visit to Moscow
association with the EU wasn't discussed and Armenian President stated
that Armenia would join the Customs Union. By the time, it was clear
that Belarus was indifferent to such extension of the alliance, while
Kazakhstan was against it. Different views on the issue were made up
at the 10th Russian-Kazakhstan Interregional Summit in Yekaterinburg
in November.
What guarantees Yerevan could receive, making choice in favor of the
Customs Union, we found out during Vladimir Putin's visit to Yerevan on
December 2nd. Armenia will get Russian gas for internal Russian prices,
as well as arms; cooperation will be intensified; and investments and
a series of economic projects are promised to the nuclear and security
spheres. Isn't it sufficient? It is sufficient, if it becomes true.
The Karabakh problem. Vladimir Putin said that blood shouldn't be
shed anymore and welcomed restoration of contacts between Azerbaijan
and Armenia at the top level. The statement seems to be adequate and
reasonable. Yerevan should be happy. Moreover, "Russia will make the
process of Armenia's accession to the CU most effective." A road map
may be signed on December 24th.
Vladimir Putin stated that Russia intends to improve positions in
the South Caucasus, and it would reasonable to think that it relies
on its strategic partner, first of all. It also seems to be alright
for Armenia.
However, in Yerevan strange developments took place on Monday, to put
it mildly. A group which calls itself 'Dignified Motherland' decided
to meet Russian President by an action which had to make it clear
that Russian President is not welcomed in Armenia. The group includes
the opposition Armenian party Heritage; it has pro-Western views and
believes that the choice in favor of the Customs Union was made by the
authorities because of Russia's pressure, i.e. it was interference in
Armenian internal affairs. The politicians and social activists held
their protest with mottos on prevention of the country's colonization.
Probably, the hundred or so people deserved no attention, but for
several circumstances. It is inadequate to shout about Moscow's
pressure on Yerevan: according to Gellapa public opinion polls,
about 70% Armenian population stands for the CU. Did the authorities
falsify the data, as the opposition stated? Why didn't the opposition
present other data? Are initiators of anti-Russian protests ready to
be responsible before the Armenian nation and history for consequences
which will follow a break-up between Armenia and Russia? It seems to me
they are not able to think in such a way, if they forgot hospitability
rules, especially considering the fact that Armenia has many times
invited the Russian president to come.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/48229.html