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Azerbaijan's ultimate dependence on Russia is in the best interests of Armenia
ArmInfo's Interview with Leader of National Revival Party, ex-Defense
Minister, Lieut. Gen. Vagharshak Harutyunyan
by David Stepanyan
Sunday, December 8, 13:44
Here is the first and the most popular question in Armenia today. What
is the goal of Russia's up-to-date military hardware supplies to
Azerbaijan?
Military and technical cooperation is a part of the foreign political
activity of the states and it helps attain foreign political goals,
enhance the defensive ability and security. Military and technical
cooperation makes direct or indirect impact on the state and
development of the military and political situation, as well as on
conflicts. Article 3 of the Law `On Military and Technical
Cooperation' says that the key goal of Russia's military and technical
cooperation with foreign states is to strengthen the military and
political positions of Russia in different regions of the world.
Why does Moscow seek to make Azerbaijan dependent on Russia?
Azerbaijan is gaining an important role in the geo-political fight for
the South Caucasus. Turkey needs Azerbaijan as a conductor of its
Neo-Ottomanism ideology and is therefore attempting to bring NATO to
that country. This is a threat for Russia. So, the Russians are
trying to curb these attempts. For Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh it
would be good if Azerbaijan depended on Russia rather than Turkey. But
I don't think that the Turks will let the Azeris join the Customs
Union.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced creation of a joint
air defense system with participation of Russia, Armenia, Belarus and
Kazakhstan. Russia has already a joint air defense system with
Armenia. What goals will this new initiative have and what will it be
directed against?
Putin's initiative to create a joint air defense system is a response
to the Customs Union's enlargement. This system is just supposed to
ensure the security of the Union. I don't agree with those claiming
that this system will deprive Armenia of sovereignty.
Russia is strengthening the 102nd military base. It is also going to
take Erebouni Airport on lease. The impression is that our allies are
strengthening their presence, not Armenia. What for is it being done?
How does it meet Armenia's interests?
The enlargement of the Russian air force in Armenia comes from the
treaty on the Russian military base prolonged in 2010. Before 2010
the base was obliged to guard Armenia's borders with Turkey and Iran.
Now it will have to also guard the border with Azerbaijan.
Why does Moscow keep controlling the balance of forces between Armenia
and Azerbaijan?
Presence in the region helps Russia to fight for the region. Russia's
military doctrine says that all conflicts near its borders pose a
threat to its security. And Nagorno-Karabakh is one of such threats.
Russia does not want this conflict to resume as it is the only great
power having a common border with this region. As regards Russia's
supplying arms to Azerbaijan, unless the Russians do it, the Israelis
and the Ukrainians will take their place and they will lose their
control over Azerbaijan. I don't think that this will be good for
Armenia, will it?
What impact does the `reset' of relations between the United States
and Russia make on Armenia's role given the deal on Syria between
Washington and Moscow and the new role Iran has assumed following the
Geneva Agreement with P5+1?
Armenia's role in the region will certainly change after the latest
developments - the US-Russian deal on Syria and the Geneva agreement
on Iran. Our control of Nagorno-Karabakh is a strong proof of our big
role in the region. Russia's military base in Armenia is not only a
guarantee of our security, but also a means for the Russians to
enhance their influence in the region. As regards the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem, Russia has never let Armenia down in this matter, and its
further position here will depend on Armenia's policy.
May there be an agreement where Iran agrees to stop enriching uranium
to 20% in exchange for the mediators' promise to force Israel to join
the Nonproliferation Treaty?
Israel and Iran are the key rivals in the region, and a nuclear weapon
would certainly be helpful in this rivalry. But the key factor that
caused P5+1 to sign the Geneva Agreement was the position of Russia,
China and Iran. It was a kind of a counterbalance to the policy of
Turkey and the United States to pressure Iran by changing the regime
in its ally, Syria. So, Israel's negative response to the agreement
was natural. The agreement has given Iran a respite, and this cannot
but worry Israel.
When the `cold war' was over, Turkey lost its role of the advanced
guard in NATO and tried to control the processes in the Middle East.
The impression is that the treaties on Syria and Iran have crossed out
Turkey's regional ambitions...
In the very beginning of Ahmet Davutoglu's "zero problems with
neighbors" policy directed at strengthening of Turkey through
dissemination of Neo-Ottomanism, it was clear that the task exceeds
Ankara's ability. They did not have enough political, military and
economic resources for that. As a result, today Turkey has ended up
with nothing. Its relations with all the countries of the region -
Israel, Egypt, Armenia and Syria - have worsened. And today's
jactitation of Turkey from Europe to the East are evidence of an
extremely hard geo-political situation in the country thanks to the
political adventurism of Ankara.
Turkey and Azerbaijan have a treaty on mutual military support. Can it
be considered legitimate given that Ankara needs NATO's consent to
provide military aid to Azerbaijan?
Certainly, Turkey has got an opportunity to show military aid to
Azerbaijan within the frames of the treaty on mutual military support
and despite being a NATO member. No international treaty, including
the CSTO, limits any country to show aid to its partner. NATO and CSTO
were set up to protect from aggression directed only against their
members. Actually, Turkey cannot but consult in the matter of showing
aid to Azerbaijan, if this aid threatens NATO member-states.
In other words, will the developments of 1993, when Turkish armed
forces came closer to the border of Armenia, occur again?
Actually, they will. At that time the Turks said about their intention
to enter the Karabakh conflict, if the Armenians did not abandon the
attacking operations in Karabakh. Marshal Shaposhnikov declared that
Turkey's interference in the Karabakh conflict would result in the
third World War. This statement was followed by the talk of Russia's
defence minister Pavel Grachev with the Turkish president in Istanbul,
and everything ended.
Given the analysis of the current situation, would you assess the
possibility and prospects of new Azerbaijani aggression against
Karabakh?
The possibility of the new war in Karabakh has sharply declined
because of the following factors: rising of Russia's role in the world
and in the region, liquidation of the threat of war against Iran and
sale of the Russian armament to Azerbaijan, that allows Moscow to keep
Baku under control. As for Armenia's joining the Customs Union and
later the Eurasian Union, it will reduce the possibility of the war
even more taking into consideration the interest of Russia in Armenia,
and the fact that Azerbaijan is beyond these processes. The moral and
psychological climate in the Azerbaijani army is much lower than that
in the Armenian army. The material acquisition by Azerbaijan should
ensure its security in three directions: Armenia, Turkmenistan and
Iran. This requires forces and funds. Therefore this material
acquisition should be divided into three parts. Meanwhile, by its
doctrine Armenia is a guarantor of the NKR security, and all the
strategic facilities and targets of Azerbaijan are within the reach of
the Armenian firing means. As for Armenia, it is a protecting zone
thanks to the treaties with CSTO and a direct contract with Russia.
Finally, the most important is that Azerbaijan is not ready for war.
For this reason, today to start a new war is equal to death for
Azerbaijan. They cannot do that physically even irrespective of the
military and political situation.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid¨9BDCE0-5FF5-11E3-B3C00EB7C0D21663
From: A. Papazian
ArmInfo's Interview with Leader of National Revival Party, ex-Defense
Minister, Lieut. Gen. Vagharshak Harutyunyan
by David Stepanyan
Sunday, December 8, 13:44
Here is the first and the most popular question in Armenia today. What
is the goal of Russia's up-to-date military hardware supplies to
Azerbaijan?
Military and technical cooperation is a part of the foreign political
activity of the states and it helps attain foreign political goals,
enhance the defensive ability and security. Military and technical
cooperation makes direct or indirect impact on the state and
development of the military and political situation, as well as on
conflicts. Article 3 of the Law `On Military and Technical
Cooperation' says that the key goal of Russia's military and technical
cooperation with foreign states is to strengthen the military and
political positions of Russia in different regions of the world.
Why does Moscow seek to make Azerbaijan dependent on Russia?
Azerbaijan is gaining an important role in the geo-political fight for
the South Caucasus. Turkey needs Azerbaijan as a conductor of its
Neo-Ottomanism ideology and is therefore attempting to bring NATO to
that country. This is a threat for Russia. So, the Russians are
trying to curb these attempts. For Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh it
would be good if Azerbaijan depended on Russia rather than Turkey. But
I don't think that the Turks will let the Azeris join the Customs
Union.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced creation of a joint
air defense system with participation of Russia, Armenia, Belarus and
Kazakhstan. Russia has already a joint air defense system with
Armenia. What goals will this new initiative have and what will it be
directed against?
Putin's initiative to create a joint air defense system is a response
to the Customs Union's enlargement. This system is just supposed to
ensure the security of the Union. I don't agree with those claiming
that this system will deprive Armenia of sovereignty.
Russia is strengthening the 102nd military base. It is also going to
take Erebouni Airport on lease. The impression is that our allies are
strengthening their presence, not Armenia. What for is it being done?
How does it meet Armenia's interests?
The enlargement of the Russian air force in Armenia comes from the
treaty on the Russian military base prolonged in 2010. Before 2010
the base was obliged to guard Armenia's borders with Turkey and Iran.
Now it will have to also guard the border with Azerbaijan.
Why does Moscow keep controlling the balance of forces between Armenia
and Azerbaijan?
Presence in the region helps Russia to fight for the region. Russia's
military doctrine says that all conflicts near its borders pose a
threat to its security. And Nagorno-Karabakh is one of such threats.
Russia does not want this conflict to resume as it is the only great
power having a common border with this region. As regards Russia's
supplying arms to Azerbaijan, unless the Russians do it, the Israelis
and the Ukrainians will take their place and they will lose their
control over Azerbaijan. I don't think that this will be good for
Armenia, will it?
What impact does the `reset' of relations between the United States
and Russia make on Armenia's role given the deal on Syria between
Washington and Moscow and the new role Iran has assumed following the
Geneva Agreement with P5+1?
Armenia's role in the region will certainly change after the latest
developments - the US-Russian deal on Syria and the Geneva agreement
on Iran. Our control of Nagorno-Karabakh is a strong proof of our big
role in the region. Russia's military base in Armenia is not only a
guarantee of our security, but also a means for the Russians to
enhance their influence in the region. As regards the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem, Russia has never let Armenia down in this matter, and its
further position here will depend on Armenia's policy.
May there be an agreement where Iran agrees to stop enriching uranium
to 20% in exchange for the mediators' promise to force Israel to join
the Nonproliferation Treaty?
Israel and Iran are the key rivals in the region, and a nuclear weapon
would certainly be helpful in this rivalry. But the key factor that
caused P5+1 to sign the Geneva Agreement was the position of Russia,
China and Iran. It was a kind of a counterbalance to the policy of
Turkey and the United States to pressure Iran by changing the regime
in its ally, Syria. So, Israel's negative response to the agreement
was natural. The agreement has given Iran a respite, and this cannot
but worry Israel.
When the `cold war' was over, Turkey lost its role of the advanced
guard in NATO and tried to control the processes in the Middle East.
The impression is that the treaties on Syria and Iran have crossed out
Turkey's regional ambitions...
In the very beginning of Ahmet Davutoglu's "zero problems with
neighbors" policy directed at strengthening of Turkey through
dissemination of Neo-Ottomanism, it was clear that the task exceeds
Ankara's ability. They did not have enough political, military and
economic resources for that. As a result, today Turkey has ended up
with nothing. Its relations with all the countries of the region -
Israel, Egypt, Armenia and Syria - have worsened. And today's
jactitation of Turkey from Europe to the East are evidence of an
extremely hard geo-political situation in the country thanks to the
political adventurism of Ankara.
Turkey and Azerbaijan have a treaty on mutual military support. Can it
be considered legitimate given that Ankara needs NATO's consent to
provide military aid to Azerbaijan?
Certainly, Turkey has got an opportunity to show military aid to
Azerbaijan within the frames of the treaty on mutual military support
and despite being a NATO member. No international treaty, including
the CSTO, limits any country to show aid to its partner. NATO and CSTO
were set up to protect from aggression directed only against their
members. Actually, Turkey cannot but consult in the matter of showing
aid to Azerbaijan, if this aid threatens NATO member-states.
In other words, will the developments of 1993, when Turkish armed
forces came closer to the border of Armenia, occur again?
Actually, they will. At that time the Turks said about their intention
to enter the Karabakh conflict, if the Armenians did not abandon the
attacking operations in Karabakh. Marshal Shaposhnikov declared that
Turkey's interference in the Karabakh conflict would result in the
third World War. This statement was followed by the talk of Russia's
defence minister Pavel Grachev with the Turkish president in Istanbul,
and everything ended.
Given the analysis of the current situation, would you assess the
possibility and prospects of new Azerbaijani aggression against
Karabakh?
The possibility of the new war in Karabakh has sharply declined
because of the following factors: rising of Russia's role in the world
and in the region, liquidation of the threat of war against Iran and
sale of the Russian armament to Azerbaijan, that allows Moscow to keep
Baku under control. As for Armenia's joining the Customs Union and
later the Eurasian Union, it will reduce the possibility of the war
even more taking into consideration the interest of Russia in Armenia,
and the fact that Azerbaijan is beyond these processes. The moral and
psychological climate in the Azerbaijani army is much lower than that
in the Armenian army. The material acquisition by Azerbaijan should
ensure its security in three directions: Armenia, Turkmenistan and
Iran. This requires forces and funds. Therefore this material
acquisition should be divided into three parts. Meanwhile, by its
doctrine Armenia is a guarantor of the NKR security, and all the
strategic facilities and targets of Azerbaijan are within the reach of
the Armenian firing means. As for Armenia, it is a protecting zone
thanks to the treaties with CSTO and a direct contract with Russia.
Finally, the most important is that Azerbaijan is not ready for war.
For this reason, today to start a new war is equal to death for
Azerbaijan. They cannot do that physically even irrespective of the
military and political situation.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid¨9BDCE0-5FF5-11E3-B3C00EB7C0D21663
From: A. Papazian