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IT IS NOT ONLY ABOUT THE EU CONNECTION
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Dec 12 2013
MUSTAFA AYDIN
The Ukrainian government's decision to suspend the Association
Agreement with the EU on Nov. 21 started a series of protests around
country. These are the largest protests since the Orange Revolution
in 2004. The biggest crowds are gathering again in Independence Square
("Maidan Nezalezhnosti") in downtown Kiev, where the protests leading
to the 2004 revolution took place. The number of the protesters has
grown in reaction to the violent crackdown of the police over last
weekend, and now hundreds of thousands of people are gathered at
the Maidan not only to support the EU process, but also to demand
resignation of the president and the government.
The pace of EU-Ukraine relations was boosted following the Orange
Revolution, but slowed down significantly after the election of
current President Victor Yanukovich in 2010. The negotiations for the
Association Agreement, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Agreement, were expected to be finalized at the Eastern Partnership
Summit in Vilnius on Nov. 29. But it didn't happen, and Yanukovich
turned decisively to Russia to save the day.
Ukraine has been squeezed between the EU and Russia for some time
now; and the EU's demands, in addition to Russian pressures, were
instrumental in the failure. Beyond political and economic reforms,
the EU demanded the release of the opposition leader Julia Timoshenko
- who was jailed in 2010 on charges widely believed to be politically
motivated - as a precondition for the agreement. Having accomplished
many reforms for the sake of the EU process, Yanukovich does not
wish to risk his political career by relying too much on the EU, so
the country demands closer relations with Russia instead. Besides,
he now sees Timoshenko as a serious contender in the 2015 presidential
election.
Russia, on the other hand, has viewed every Western move into
the post-Soviet space as an existential threat since the so-called
colored revolutions. In response to the attempts by the EU and NATO to
build up closer relations with the countries in the region, Russia,
to sustain its influence in the post-Soviet space, has developed
various projects, such as the Eurasian Custom Union with Belarus and
Kazakhstan. Armenia has recently agreed to join and Russia has been
insisting on Ukraine joining too, instead of signing an agreement
with the EU. To persuade Ukraine, Russia did not shy away from
using its economic and energy cards. Over the summer, it banned
imports of some goods from Ukraine and imposed new and difficult
regulations for many other goods originating from Ukraine. It also
threatened the Ukrainian government with cutting off of natural gas
in winter or increasing its price as a punitive measure. Ukraine,
which is heavily dependent on Russian gas and faced Russian punitive
measures twice before, could not ignore such threats. In the end,
after Yanukovich backed down from signing the agreement with the EU,
Russia offered a generous loan and reduced the gas price.
The current unrest in Ukraine not only relates to Ukraine's future
anymore; it is a battle for the soul of Ukraine between Russia and
the West. Russia has already shown the seriousness of its intention
to claim and maintain its dominance in its near abroad with the
Russian-Georgian war of August 2008.
Following Armenia's decisions to join the Eurasian Custom Union in
September 2013 and now Ukraine's decision not to sign the agreement
with the EU, the West lost precious footholds in the region.
However, this is not the end of the story for Ukraine yet, where
thousands are still protesting. In a country where such crowds once
managed to change a government, the end result is not a foregone
conclusion, and the final result of the tug of war between Russia
and the West is yet to come.
December/12/2013
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Dec 12 2013
MUSTAFA AYDIN
The Ukrainian government's decision to suspend the Association
Agreement with the EU on Nov. 21 started a series of protests around
country. These are the largest protests since the Orange Revolution
in 2004. The biggest crowds are gathering again in Independence Square
("Maidan Nezalezhnosti") in downtown Kiev, where the protests leading
to the 2004 revolution took place. The number of the protesters has
grown in reaction to the violent crackdown of the police over last
weekend, and now hundreds of thousands of people are gathered at
the Maidan not only to support the EU process, but also to demand
resignation of the president and the government.
The pace of EU-Ukraine relations was boosted following the Orange
Revolution, but slowed down significantly after the election of
current President Victor Yanukovich in 2010. The negotiations for the
Association Agreement, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Agreement, were expected to be finalized at the Eastern Partnership
Summit in Vilnius on Nov. 29. But it didn't happen, and Yanukovich
turned decisively to Russia to save the day.
Ukraine has been squeezed between the EU and Russia for some time
now; and the EU's demands, in addition to Russian pressures, were
instrumental in the failure. Beyond political and economic reforms,
the EU demanded the release of the opposition leader Julia Timoshenko
- who was jailed in 2010 on charges widely believed to be politically
motivated - as a precondition for the agreement. Having accomplished
many reforms for the sake of the EU process, Yanukovich does not
wish to risk his political career by relying too much on the EU, so
the country demands closer relations with Russia instead. Besides,
he now sees Timoshenko as a serious contender in the 2015 presidential
election.
Russia, on the other hand, has viewed every Western move into
the post-Soviet space as an existential threat since the so-called
colored revolutions. In response to the attempts by the EU and NATO to
build up closer relations with the countries in the region, Russia,
to sustain its influence in the post-Soviet space, has developed
various projects, such as the Eurasian Custom Union with Belarus and
Kazakhstan. Armenia has recently agreed to join and Russia has been
insisting on Ukraine joining too, instead of signing an agreement
with the EU. To persuade Ukraine, Russia did not shy away from
using its economic and energy cards. Over the summer, it banned
imports of some goods from Ukraine and imposed new and difficult
regulations for many other goods originating from Ukraine. It also
threatened the Ukrainian government with cutting off of natural gas
in winter or increasing its price as a punitive measure. Ukraine,
which is heavily dependent on Russian gas and faced Russian punitive
measures twice before, could not ignore such threats. In the end,
after Yanukovich backed down from signing the agreement with the EU,
Russia offered a generous loan and reduced the gas price.
The current unrest in Ukraine not only relates to Ukraine's future
anymore; it is a battle for the soul of Ukraine between Russia and
the West. Russia has already shown the seriousness of its intention
to claim and maintain its dominance in its near abroad with the
Russian-Georgian war of August 2008.
Following Armenia's decisions to join the Eurasian Custom Union in
September 2013 and now Ukraine's decision not to sign the agreement
with the EU, the West lost precious footholds in the region.
However, this is not the end of the story for Ukraine yet, where
thousands are still protesting. In a country where such crowds once
managed to change a government, the end result is not a foregone
conclusion, and the final result of the tug of war between Russia
and the West is yet to come.
December/12/2013